Bryce Young. Bucky Irving, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Rome Odunze all have narratives associated with their current value. Which ones are valid? Which ones aren't?
Welcome to Week 15 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality
- Player Storylines to Validate or Debunk (see below)
- Potential League-Winning WRs
- Dynasty RB Value Check
Let's roll.
Player Storylines to Validate or Debunk
Matt Waldman: Pick one storyline from below to validate. Pick one to debunk.
- In recent weeks, Bryce Young has looked as promising as Caleb Williams but without a trio of strong receivers.
- Bucky Irving looks great until you see him wrapped up like a frozen mummy in the locker room. It's enough to devalue him from a future RB1 to an RB3.
- As a talent, Rome Odunze didn't belong in the tier of Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Ladd McConkey pre-draft.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. won't reach his ceiling with Kyler Murray, who hasn't supported multiple top-24 WRs/Top-12 TEs in a season for most of his career.
Separate the substance from the narrative.
Rome Odunze
Justin Howe: Odunze was a fantastic prospect, and his speed and agility scores were top-tier – even better when adjusted for his long frame. He still boasts the same athletic upside as Nabers or Harrison; we can see that.
It's just unfortunate for Odunze that we've also seen his floor so early, so often. Still, there's plenty of "up" left for Caleb Williams, and Keenan Allen seems unlikely to return in 2025. Look for the next regime to use Odunze's intimidating length and body control several times a game.
Andy Hicks: As a talent, Rome Odunze didn't belong in the tier of Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Ladd McConkey before fantasy drafts.
All the other receivers land in situations where they are the number one receiver. Quentin Johnston was a first-round draft pick as well but has disappointed. Ladd McConkey has taken that role. Thomas, Nabers, and Harrison are the clear No.1 wide receivers on their teams already.
Odunze has had a nice rookie season, but DJ Moore and, to a lesser extent, Keenan Allen were going to figure prominently. Talent-wise, as the question implies, he belongs in the same tier as the other guys. All were first-round receivers, and justifiably so.
Bucky Irving
Hicks: I am pretty sure if we looked at most NFL players, especially running backs, after a game, it would not be a pretty sight. These guys put their bodies on the line and endure punishment.
Add in that it was a back injury, and visuals mean much less than a medical report indicating whether it is a long-term injury or if he will be back soon. Irving has looked great and has the top job in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future.
Devaluing him to RB3 seems excessive, pending further medical information.
Dan Hindery: While I agree that Irving's size limits his upside as a 20-touch-per-game back, devaluing him to an RB3 feels extreme. He's currently the RB18, doing so on just 10.5 carries and 2.9 targets per game. Those usage levels seem sustainable, and I'd expect his receiving role to grow. While he may not be a future RB1, labeling him an RB3 undersells his current and future potential.
Jason Wood: I take the question to worry about Bucky Irving's body type as he's 5-foot-10 and under 200 pounds (195), which is a relatively unusual pair of measurables among NFL running backs. But the truth is Irving is no more or less of an injury risk than anyone else getting a significant workload at the tailback position.
Irving played in 39 games in college and touched the ball 570 times; there's no reason to think he won't be able to thrive in a league where guys like De'Von Achane and James Cook are thriving.
Bryce Young
Gary Davenport: I don't know if it's a testimonial to Young or an indictment of Williams, but Young has looked a lot more like the quarterback the Panthers thought they were getting in recent weeks. It's too early to pass judgment on the Bears rookie, but the Panthers have to be immensely relieved that they don't have to look to draft another quarterback early next season.
Bell: Young's size is the type of thing the casual fan will immediately grab onto, and it looks particularly bad when things go wrong. Young's rookie season was a wash due to the failure of his coaching staff.
Early in the 2024 season, the entire team was adjusting to Dave Canales, and Young was not ready to provide the needed stabilizing force. He was re-inserted into a much better position to succeed.
Young is a high-level processor with the mobility to keep plays alive. There was always going to be an adjustment period with his physical package.
People hate to be wrong. They especially hate to be wrong when they admit they were previously incorrect.
The consensus draft opinion swung very hard for Young over Stroud once it was clear he would be the Panthers' pick. The performances of the two rookies in 2023 made people wrong. The reaction was largely ridicule for Young; he was failing, and he committed the cardinal sin of looking different. People must see a lot before they walk back those severe reactions.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Wood: If you think Marvin Harrison Jr.'s ceiling should be a top-3 fantasy receiver, your statement holds. Since becoming the starter in 2019, Kyler Murray has only supported one Top-5 receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, in 2020.
That's an exceedingly low hit rate for an offense that's perceived as being high-octane when Murray is healthy. And the early returns this season have been frustrating. Harrison is on pace for 65 catches and 856 yards receiving, with a 52% catch rate. That's not what anyone signed up for.
Howe: I'll agree that Harrison may not fully blossom in the current setup. When things are going optimally for the Cardinals, there simply isn't much raw volume for Murray -- just 26 attempts per game in Arizona wins.
Harrison has yet to prove he's an across-the-field alpha on a Jefferson/Chase/Lamb level. Harrison is winning contested throws, which is great, but it's a bit concerning just how often he's contested. He may not boast the physical profile to scheme up a 30% target share for bouncing all over the formation to win in space.
Davenport: Marvin Harrison Jr. admittedly hasn't been as productive as many expected this year, but this writer tried to warn fantasy managers in the offseason that the former Ohio State star was overvalued. That doesn't mean I don't still believe in his immense talent—only that not every young wideout destroys the league off the jump like Justin Jefferson. Harrison will be just fine with Murray—and if you can find a manager who buys into those concerns, you might obtain Harrison's services at a reasonable price.
Hindery: In 32 starts over the past 3 seasons, Murray has thrown just 39 touchdown passes. By comparison, Joe Burrow has thrown 33 in 13 starts this season. Harrison's talent is undeniable, but his situation in Arizona pales compared to the environments of top-tier receivers like Ja'Marr Chase.
Sharing a limited passing pie (1.2 passing TDs per game) with Trey McBride and others caps Harrison's ceiling compared to what it could be in a more prolific offense.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality
- Player Storylines to Validate or Debunk
- Potential League-Winning WRs
- Dynasty RB Value Check
Good luck!