Some players have better fantasy value than real-life value. For others, the opposite is true.
Welcome to Week 15 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality (see below)
- Player Storylines to Validate or Debunk
- Potential League-Winning WRs
- Dynasty RB Value Check
Let's roll.
Fantasy vs. Reality
Matt Waldman: Consider these four pairs of established talents at the main fantasy positions.
- Josh Allen - Joe Burrow
- De'Von Achane - Josh Jacobs
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Garrett Wilson
- Cade Otton - Mark Andrews
Pick two pairs from the list and tell me which ones from each pair you prefer for fantasy over the next two seasons and which you'd prefer if you ran a real team.
Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow
Gary Davenport: Joe Burrow is having a fantastic season and is an elite quarterback. But he's not Josh Allen. Allen's rushing upside gives him a clear edge in fantasy, and he doesn't have Burrow's injury history. Allen's the pick there—whether you're talking fantasy football or in the NFL itself.
Jeff Bell: Allen for both fantasy and real football. Fantasy football is simple. No player has scored more fantasy points over the last five years than Allen. In Week 13, he became the first quarterback to throw, run, and "catch" a touchdown in the same game.
He followed that up in Week 14 by becoming the first player with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Burrow has been hot, but Allen has more ways to score points.
In real football, the skillsets used to accumulate fantasy points show up. Yes, Burrow's team has beaten Allen's team. And Burrow has even beaten Patrick Mahomes II in the playoffs. In those games, Burrow playing with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins has shown as a significant difference maker. Starting a team from scratch or with neutral weapons, Allen is better.
Justin Howe: Allen is the gold standard in fantasy: an MVP-caliber passer who's simultaneously feared in the open field. He produces chunk plays both by air and by freight, and he's also the team's goalline back – even when he shouldn't be.
In reality, though, it's fair to trim at least a few years off Allen's long-term outlook for viability. He's an exceptionally physical guy who refuses to die easy, and his bottom will likely drop out health-wise sooner than for most. Burrow has fought off injuries of his own, but his less mobile and less physical style should age better. He could still be posting 5,000-yard seasons 5-7 years from now.
Jason Wood: I prefer Josh Allen as both a fantasy player and a real-life NFL quarterback. Let's not besmirch Joe Burrow; he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and very few franchises would pass up the chance to build around him.
Allen's continued maturation astounds me. This year, he's running as much as ever, but he's also throwing with more accuracy and not turning the ball over. He only has 5 interceptions against 23 passing touchdowns, with an elite 8.32 adjusted yards per attempt.
Waldman: I believe Burrow is a smarter, wiser, and more technically proficient quarterback from the pocket and how he manages a game. Allen has improved dramatically over the years and he's getting assistance to become a more mature leader.
While I might begrudgingly take Allen, you will see me dancing at the prospect that I could have Burrow instead.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Garrett Wilson
Davenport: In the battle of Ohio State receivers (they have produced a few in recent years), I'll take Jaxon Smith-Njigba in fantasy leagues. His quarterback situation is more settled, and Geno Smith has demonstrated quite an affinity for targeting the second-year pro.
Garrett Wilson is the choice for an NFL team. As much as I like Smith-Njigba, Wilson is just a superior talent.
Wood: This one is easy; give me Jaxon Smith-Njigba in fantasy and Garrett Wilson in real life. Wilson has the talent, polish, route-running, hands, and instincts to be right up there with CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase, but he's been hamstrung by awful offensive systems and poor quarterbacking. Put him with a top-tier quarterback, and he's putting up All-Pro numbers.
But for fantasy purposes, I'll give Smith-Njigba the edge because he's already delivering above expectations, and we've seen the light go off this year after an erratic rookie season.
Dan Hindery: For both fantasy and real-life value, I lean toward Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His quarterback situation is more stable, with Geno Smith proving he can support big production.
Since Week 9, Smith-Njigba has been the fantasy WR3 (behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Jerry Jeudy) and has thrived as a downfield threat. While Wilson is more explosive, Smith-Njigba's body control and sideline awareness are elite.
Wilson has left some plays on the field because of his inability to get two feet down, which is what you expect top wide receivers to do. Wilson is also stuck in quarterback purgatory. With Aaron Rodgers unlikely to return in 2025, Wilson could face another season of instability—whether it's a rookie QB or a stopgap veteran.
While Wilson's talent is undeniable, Smith-Njigba's situation gives him the edge for both fantasy and NFL value over the next two seasons.
Howe: In reality, Wilson is the superior talent, even if they're relatively even in my eyes, fantasy-wise. He's superior to all but 5-7 receivers across the league.
Wilson bounces around the formation, while Smith-Njigba takes nearly 90% of his snaps from the slot. Wilson is better at getting open on his own and is also the better athlete in space. It's stunning to think where he'd be if his QB were more capable of getting the ball downfield.
Alas, Aaron Rodgers sits 29th league-wide in bad throw rate and 30th in completed air yardage rate.
Andy Hicks: For the next two years, give me Smith-Njigba. He has developed into an elite receiver and will be a cornerstone of the Seahawks' offense for years to come.
He's No.6 overall for fantasy receivers -- one ahead of Wilson. The problem for Wilson over the next two years is his team.
The Jets will have to start at quarterback and head coach again. He has already underachieved relative to his potential and should be one of the premiere receivers in the league. Scoring only 12 touchdowns in 3 years and barely gaining 1,000 yards each of those years is disappointing, considering how good he is.
For these reasons, if I ran a real team, teaming up Wilson with a decent quarterback and a strong offense would be a priority. Some players never catch a break in this league or have their potential unrealized. Fingers crossed that Wilson can break that mold.
De'Von Achane vs. Josh Jacobs
Wood: It is another difficult matchup as both Jacobs and Achane are top-10 fantasy backs, averaging 17.7 PPR points per game. I'll give the slight fantasy edge to Achane as he has more matchup protection given his role in the receiving game, but that's not to say Jacobs is incapable of making plays as a receiver, too.
In terms of real NFL parlance, I'd opt for Jacobs because of his physical build, ability to handle a full-time workload, and longer track record of success despite playing for some bad teams where he was the only asset defenses had to worry about genuinely.
Hindery: De'Von Achane is the clear pick for fantasy football. Nearly four years younger than Josh Jacobs, Achane's age is a significant factor, especially when projecting forward into 2025 and beyond.
Jacobs has been a workhorse this season, but his recent inefficiency—averaging 3.4 yards per carry and just 1.7 targets per game over the last three weeks—raises concerns about his long-term durability and role.
While 2024 has given us hope that "age is just a number," we know that age-related risks still exist at running back. In contrast, Achane is young and ascending. Miami's offense is perfectly designed to maximize his explosive skill set, and I don't see significant competition from players like Jaylen Wright.
Achane's long-term fantasy outlook is incredibly bright.
For real-life football, the decision is closer. Jacobs' physical, punishing running style wears down defenses and provides a psychological edge often undervalued by the fantasy community.
That said, Achane's versatility and ability to create mismatches give him a unique edge in today's NFL. His speed and explosiveness add a dynamic element that can shift a game's momentum in a single play.
While I appreciate the old-school value of Jacobs' power running, Achane's versatility and upside still make him my pick for building a team.
Waldman: As a fan of evergreen value, I doubt the Miami Dolphins will ever win a Super Bowl with Achane as its lead back -- as exciting as he is.
Bell: Jacobs is another dual pick on the fantasy and real football front. The format is a consideration, as Achane has an edge in 1+ point per reception scoring (Achane 17.7 to Jacobs 17.6 per game), but the gap widens when you peel back that scoring to .5 or fewer (in standard, Jacobs is 15.5 while Achane is 12.9). Achane is the final evolution of players like Tavon Austin or Dexter McCluster. He is a running back, but the passing game is a significant value driver.
Jacobs is a traditional three-down back capable of handling 30+ touches and wearing down a defense with a passing skillset that has gone under the radar. While Achane needs to be schemed to, Jacobs is a chameleon capable of playing in any scheme. Jacobs's traditional path to fantasy point accumulation gives him a higher ceiling, and if I am building a real roster, he is a "set-it-and-forget-it" option.
Hicks: In both cases, give me Josh Jacobs. Jacobs fits in well with the Packers offense and is an elite fantasy running back. Has been for years. In a strong, balanced, and young offense, his position as the anchor is assured.
Achane is doing his best work as a receiver of late. As a runner, he is averaging just above two yards a carry over the last three games. While he is producing as a fantasy back, his running leaves a lot to be desired.
Miami might get a new coach and offensive scheme next year. Even if everyone remains in place, Achane's game relies on big plays. His instincts are lacking as a runner and his speed may be best in open space out of the backfield rather than up the middle.
Mark Andrews - Cade Otton
Wood: Mark Andrews looked to have hit the age cliff early in the season, but he's now rounded into vintage form with 7 receiving touchdowns. Otton's emergence is legitimate, too, and he has age on his side.
I'm choosing Andrews for both categories. In fantasy, I trust the Ravens' offense and the Andrews-Jackson connection more than the Buccaneers' offense and the Mayfield-Otton connection.
In real NFL terms, Andrews is historically a much better run- and pass-blocker than Otton (although this year, neither is performing well in either category.
Waldman: I'd roll with Andrews in both fantasy and reality because of his work down the field as a receiver and a ballcarrier. As Bill Belichick has shared, NFL teams can find quality blockers at the position in the later rounds. The true value of the position is in the passing game.
Otton has upside as a blocker and a tough option in the passing game against tight coverage, but he's not the runner Andrews is.
Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality
- Player Storylines to Validate or Debunk
- Potential League-Winning WRs
- Dynasty RB Value Check
Good luck!