Isaac Guerendo, Jordan Mason, Kendre Miller, and Zach Charbonnet are all NFL contributors who have shown starter promise this year. Which young running back has the most value in the long term?
Welcome to Week 15 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality
- Player Storylines to Validate or Debunk
- Potential League-Winning WRs
- Dynasty RB Value Check (see below)
Let's roll.
Dynasty RB Value Check
Matt Waldman: Here are four running backs who have shown the potential to produce starter value when called upon.
With the next 2-3 seasons in mind, answer the following: 1) Who has the most upside if his situation wasn't a factor? 2) Who has the best situation? And 3) Who is the biggest trap to hold and risk holding too long?
Most Upside (Situation Not Factored)
Andy Hicks: Zach Charbonnet. He was the highest drafted, and pedigree usually matters. Until performance does. He has done well when Ken Walker III has missed time and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield.
Miller is mostly known for being injured. Mason and Guerendo can be called products of the 49ers system.
Justin Howe: Charbonnet looks like the best of these in a vacuum. I've long preferred him to Ken Walker III from a real-life standpoint; what he loses to Walker in straight-line speed, he makes up for with elusiveness and power.
He's also more likely to be featured in the passing game, as opposed to merely included as a checkdown. Besides, I agree with Jason: there's no evidence that either of the 49ers backs are worthwhile in a vacuum.
Jason Wood: It's Zach Charbonnet, and for me, it's an easy choice. Not only is he the most pedigreed of this quartet, but we've also seen him deliver huge numbers when given the chance.
Last week, starting in place of Ken Walker III, he delivered a better fantasy week than Walker has ever had in his career.
Guerendo, Miller, and Mason are all guys with intriguing traits, but most of their value is tied to their situation, which you've asked us to exclude. They're in good systems, but are they difference-makers on their own? Charbonnet has the best chance of the four to thrive on a league-average offense.
Jeff Bell: Charbonnet has the most situation-independent upside. Guerendo has never been a feature back, even at the college level. Miller has worked through issues in his career. Mason has had a chance to show he is a regular passing game contributor. Charbonnet's standout Week 14 performance is a factor, but he was a second-round pick and has shown a three-down skillset when given opportunities.
Dan Hindery: If we're talking pure upside, the answer is Zach Charbonnet. He's coming off a monster game with 193 total yards, seven catches, and two touchdowns.
When Ken Walker III has been sidelined, Charbonnet has thrived, scoring five touchdowns in three starts. With his rare combination of size and receiving ability, Charbonnet has the tools to be a true three-down workhorse if given the opportunity.
Gary Davenport: Charbonnet has the most fantasy upside if his situation isn't a consideration. Many fantasy managers forget just how talented a back Charbonnet is in his own right. He reminded everyone last week with his huge game in Arizona.
Best Situation?
Wood: In terms of who has the best situation, it's hard to choose either Mason or Guerendo since they're both backup tailbacks on the same team. We don't yet know whether Christian McCaffrey is going to return to elite form in 2025, but there are questions beyond McCaffrey's presence.
The 49ers have significant cap hurdles to deal with as Brock Purdy stops being free next year, and even if they get him to take a discount, that's $30-$40 million of cap room that gets reallocated. You've also got offensive line stalwarts hitting the age cliff with big cap numbers. The 49ers could be a far less compelling fantasy environment in 2025, even if Mason or Guerendo are installed as the starter.
The Saints are too much in flux for me to pick Miller, although you have to like what we saw this week now that he FINALLY got on the field. So I'm left with choosing Charbonnet. I've always liked Ken Walker III, but objectively, Charbonnet looks better, and why not give him a chance to be the lead back in 2025 and beyond?
Hicks: Jordan Mason has the best situation. Being on IR at the moment and as an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year leaves too many uncertainties. If his situation is returning to the 49ers as the backup to the injury-prone and aging Christian McCaffrey, then he wins. Elsewhere, he has to win a roster spot.
Bell: I agree with Andy; Mason is in the best situation. He is a free agent coming off a 782-yard season in which he was an adequate weekly starter while replacing Christian McCaffrey.
He also has a three-year background in the popular Shanahan scheme that has spread throughout the league, which could enhance his appeal for quite a few teams:
- Miami in the Mostert role from 2023.
- Houston, pending Joe Mixon's future.
- The LA Chargers or Dallas.
- Las Vegas, pending their coaching move.
- New Orleans.
These are multiple locations where Mason can land, and these spots could give him much more immediate value than the other backs.
Howe: Give me Charbonnet again when rating the situation. The Seahawks' offense is ascending, while the others are on the downslope.
Going forward, Charbonnet's emergence gives Seattle all the leverage with Walker; there's no reason to believe they'll break the bank for him. They're essentially the same age, but Charbonnet is cheaper and under team control for an extra year.
Davenport: I'm inclined to say Charbonnet again, but I'll go with Mason here. His success this season and Christian McCaffrey's injury-marred 2024 likely gave the 49ers some pause. This team will face big-time cap questions in the next year or two—and paying the likes of quarterback Brock Purdy may necessitate cutting costs at other positions—like running back.
Hindery: It's Charbonnet, but only by default. While Walker's injury history and approaching contract year could open the door for Charbonnet, the Seahawks still value Walker, and an extension wouldn't be surprising. This could keep the backfield split moving forward.
The rest aren't in great spots, either. Jordan Mason is a free agent, but he doesn't project as a priority acquisition outside of Kyle Shanahan's system, and there are a lot of "ifs" with the teams Jeff mentioned that could use a back -- including a decent 2025 NFL Draft rookie class.
Isaac Guerendo will likely be competing for a backup role until Christian McCaffrey returns. While McCaffrey's injury is significant, it's reasonable to expect him to be ready for Week 1 next season. Guerendo may find himself sharing the room with Mason or a mid-round rookie.
Kendre Miller hasn't shown enough to carve out a significant role. Alvin Kamara is under contract through 2026, limiting Miller's opportunities for the foreseeable future.
Biggest Trap?
Davenport: I don't know that any of these players are a trap. But Miller has the least value of the lot in my opinion. The reality is we haven't seen anything to indicate that he's the Saints' back of the future—it's equally possible that once they move on from Alvin Kamara the Saints will look to the draft for his replacement.
Wood: Mason is the biggest trap. He stepped into a lead role this year because of McCaffrey's injuries and played well. But three fumbles and injuries have already pushed Mason down as someone we can have confidence in being a bell cow. With Isaac Guerendo looking good (and arguably more explosive) in the same role, I could see Mason becoming a non-factor in a season or two.
Howe: You may keep all the Miller shares, no thanks. There's a very real chance his dynasty value is peaking right now. Miller is an intriguing athlete, but he's also perpetually injured, and I see no reason to plan long-term around the Saints' miserable offense.
Hicks: The biggest trap is Kendre Miller. He has 60 carries in 2 years. Alvin Kamara doesn't appear to be going anywhere, and even if the Saints get a new coaching regime, Miller hasn't made a case to be given anything more than a cheap roster spot.
Bell: Guerendo is the trap in my eyes. He is undoubtedly large and fast and has broken big plays. Spending his college career backing up Braelon Allen and then Jawhar Jordan gives pause. His receiving profile is a significant question.
As teams are swinging back towards utilizing three-down skillsets, he is the one I am least confident about holding that role. Christian McCaffrey's immediate and long-term future are both questionable. Still, we do not know if Kyle Shanahan has grown to rely on the receiving profile of a feature back or if he would be willing to step back into his days of backfield roulette.
Hindery: The answer is Jordan Mason. Until recently, Mason had solid trade value in dynasty leagues, but that window has likely closed. Of these players, Charbonnet is the only one with significant value right now, and he's more of a long-term hold than a sell-high candidate for me.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality
- Player Storylines to Validate or Debunk
- Potential League-Winning WRs
- Dynasty RB Value Check
Good luck!
