Every November, players rise from early-season the ashes of fantasy purgatory and deliver season-winning production in December. Could Jerry Jeudy, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Caleb Williams, and Bryce Young be some of those options?
Welcome to Week 14 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Hot Fantasy Players, Narrative or Substance? (see below)
- Playoff Bench Stashes
- Potential League-Winning RBs
- Dynasty WR Value Check
Let's roll.
Hot Fantasy Players, Narrative or Substance
Matt Waldman: These players have been hot recently. Can it continue? Are the narratives listed alongside each player true, and what does that mean for fantasy GMs in December?
- Jerry Jeudy: Vengeance game vs. Denver but too volatile this season to count on moving forward.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: The TD rate is lucky and unsustainable.
- Caleb Williams: Unchained by a bad staff.
- Bryce Young: The benching did him good.
Pick one to validate and one to debunk.
Joseph Haggan: Jerry Jeudy has been terrific since he received capable quarterback play and is by no means a volatile or risky play. Jameis Winston took over for the Browns in Week 7. Jeudy is averaging 6 targets and 105 receiving yards during the six games Winston has started.
He has also started getting looks in the red zone with a touchdown in two of the last three games. Jeudy blew up for 235 yards and a touchdown in Week 13 against his former team and should remain hot with a quarterback fighting for a contract and a team with nothing to lose.
Phil Alexander: Jeudy hasn't dipped below double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR scoring in five games since Jameis Winston took over as Cleveland's starter. That volatility is over.
Monday night's 35-point revenge game against his former Broncos teammates will probably be Jeudy's high-water mark for 2024, but that doesn't mean we can't count on him moving forward.
Our old friend, Matt Harmon, of Yahoo Sports and Reception Perception, recently took to X to explain how the Browns are getting Jeudy's usage right in ways Denver had it wrong. Jeudy's floor is fine for as long as Cleveland keeps using him as a vertical threat, and Winston has a green light to continue slinging the ball all over the place.
I'm more interested in Jeudy's ceiling, which is now about as high as any wide receiver's in fantasy football.
Ryan Weisse: I think we've easily debunked the narrative on Jerry Jeudy. Scoring at least 12 fantasy points per game during the past five games is a solid floor for a guy who is likely your WR3 or Flex option.
The ceiling is at least 20 points, which he's earned in two of his last three games. That's technically volatile, but it's the right kind of volatility. As long as Winston is the quarterback, you can start Jeudy with confidence.
Andy Hicks: As Phil talked about, there is no volatility here. Only the Bengals duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have higher fantasy points per game record since the Ravens matchup with the Browns. As long as Jameis Winston is starting, these WR1 numbers will continue.
The only if here is if the Browns want to give Dorian Thompson-Robinson another spin. Those in dynasty leagues who have persisted with Jeudy through five years of dismal numbers given expectations have to rejoice. Jeudy will only be 26 by the start of next season and is making a clear case to the WR1 for whatever the Browns start with next year.
When considering Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, those of us who have been playing fantasy for long enough will remember the name of another Titans receiver Drew Bennett. In 2004, Bennett had a 3-game stretch through fantasy playoffs where he recorded 28 receptions for 517 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Three. Games.
Bennett got many fantasy teams to their fantasy Super Bowl and he then stunk in the final with 2 catches for 26 yards.
Waldman: Mine was one of them...
Hicks: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has 20 catches for 365 yards for the whole 2024 season to date. He ranks 95th in receptions and 74th in receiving yards but 4th in touchdowns. While Westbrook-Ikhine could continue this weird statistical anomaly like Drew Bennett did back in the day, it will end with little to show for it.
Haggan: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's touchdown rate is not something I will be chasing. He has eight touchdowns in the last eight games, which is impressive. If the Titans have trouble moving the ball, Westbrook-Ikhine's production will struggle.
Over the previous eight games where his touchdown streak has lit the world on fire, he has only averaged 4.75 targets per game and 2.5 receptions. He only gets looks in the red zone.
This is fine and dandy if the team is moving the ball. If they struggle at all, his production will as well. Going into the fantasy playoffs, the touchdown rate is just too risky for me.
Alexander: The answer for Westbrook-Ikhine has little to do with football and everything to do with math. Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging a touchdown catch on every 2.5 receptions.
The league average for a wide receiver is one touchdown per 12.7 receptions. Westbrook-Ikhine is simply running hotter than the sun and experiencing the pleasant side of touchdown variance in a way few other pass-catchers have in recent years.
Adam Harstad:
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in 2024
- 38 targets
- 20 receptions
- 365 yards
- 8 TDs
Marc Boerigter in 2002
- 38 targets
- 20 receptions
- 420 yards
- 8 TDs
I don't have a point here, but I didn't learn how to spell Boerigter's name to go out and NOT use every opportunity I get to call someone's performance "Boerigteresque".
Waldman: Your sidebar to this conversation is the definition of Boerigteresque.
Jeff Haseley: I am not sure what Bryce Young did in the four weeks when Andy Dalton started for the Panthers, but whatever he did, he has become a better quarterback for it. Maybe it was a reality check. Perhaps it was guidance from Dalton, or maybe he entered a phone booth and came out a different man.
Either way, Young has taken some big steps toward looking like a top overall pick. He still has a way to go, but he is seeing the field better, recognizing coverages more effectively, and anticipating his players and their routes more accurately.
Carolina has improved offensively and the coaching staff now feels more confident with him as their franchise quarterback. He has climbed out of the doldrums and is working his way up as a respectable quarterback in the league.
Corey Spala: Bryce Young being benched helped turn his season around. If you are looking at counting stats, it may not be eye-opening. He has accumulated 7 touchdowns and 3 turnovers while completing 60.5% of passes.
What you should note is the skills Jeff Haseley mentioned. Young has noticeably improved his anticipation and field vision. Additionally, he has had the most big-time throws over the past two weeks. If you are looking at counting stats, you would be missing out on certain aspects influencing those, like dropped passes, which appear to be at least seven since returning as a starter.
Ryan Weisse: For validation, I do think the benching helped Bryce Young. While he hasn't set the world on fire, he looks different in the five games since his return. He's scored at least one touchdown in every game and even started running the ball far better than we saw earlier this season. Even better, over the last three games, he hasn't thrown an interception. The Panthers still have a long way to go, but there has to be far more confidence now that Young is the quarterback to lead them.
Haseley: Caleb Williams is experiencing some growing pains, as most rookie quarterbacks do, but I wouldn't necessarily hold his coaching staff accountable for his lack of superstardom. He possesses a bit of Josh Allen in him, not as a bruising rusher who can handle contact and push through, but as a passer, especially outside the pocket. The closer Williams gets to the sideline, the more daringly accurate he becomes.
Williams has demonstrated a strong arm and downfield accuracy when he has time and can scan the field, but he has struggled with his decision-making, taking too many sacks, and lacking accuracy when rushed. Could his coaching staff be better? Sure, but they aren't the reason for his struggles this year.
Spala: I believe the recent coaching changes are a confounding variable with the natural progression and development of a talented rookie quarterback. I am happy Caleb Williams has improved with his new coaching staff. I am unsure if this is the reason for his recent three-week success.
I do not want to diminish the fact that he has played well against three top defenses (GB, MIN, DET) in terms of the expected points average per play allowed. The increase in Williams' play may be due to Chicago's and his development, not directly attributed to a new coaching staff.
I want to conclude on offensive line play; through the first three weeks, Williams was the 11th-most pressured quarterback and had the 10th-fastest time to throw. There are multiple variables attributing to success on the field, not just one.
Waldman: I agree with Corey that there are multiple variables attributing to success on the field, but the coaching staff is the root issue, which is where I disagree with him and Jeff.
The coaching staff creates the offense and the game plan. These things, which I've detailed after Thomas Browns' first game as coordinator, are squarely on the staff:
- The Bears offensive line can't protect a high percentage of plays using five-step drops from under center.
- DJ Moore, their star flanker, has been playing out of position at split end and his route depths and adjustments have been awful.
- Shane Waldron, their former offensive coordinator had a bad habit of not going back to play calls that worked well early in games -- plays that had multiple facets to continue fooling defenses.
Brown's scheme and game plan changes have had a direct effect on Caleb Williams' production:
- A heavy reliance on quick passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
- Using Moore at or within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and curtailing most of his intermediate and deep targets.
- Returning to plays and concepts that worked early in the game to play the game within the game against specific defenders.
As a result, defenses have to change how they play the Bears' offense because the ball is coming out quickly. Williams isn't battered and beaten before the late stages of the game. He is hitting shot plays and off-script plays he was missing earlier in the year. Moore and Keenan Allen are showing more signs of production.
I'm validating the narrative -- there are multiple factors but they all stem from poor design that was hiding the strengths and exploiting the weakness of their players.
Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Hot Fantasy Players, Narrative or Substance?
- Playoff Bench Stashes
- Potential League-Winning RBs
- Dynasty WR Value Check
Good luck!