Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabers, and Marvin Harrison Jr. are all fantasy starters in most formats this year. Which young receiver has the most value in the long term?
Welcome to Week 14 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Hot Fantasy Players, Narrative or Substance?
- Playoff Bench Stashes
- Potential League-Winning RBs
- Dynasty WR Value Check (see below)
Let's roll.
Dynasty WR Value Check
Matt Waldman: These four receivers with less than three years of NFL experience are delivering no worse than top-24 production at this point of the season.
Pick the WR with the greatest future value for the next two seasons.
Corey Spala: I believe Malik Nabers will have the greatest value in the immediate future. He has cemented himself with the quarterback-proof tag by playing with three different quarterbacks this season, averaging 16.7 PPG and is WR12.
He will be his team's undisputed number one target; he currently has 29.9% of the New York Giants' targets. He is the only wide receiver who has not played a full season (10 games), yet he is the only one with over 100 targets. Nabers is a premium target hog with no concern about who is under center.
Ryan Weisse: Because we are focusing on the next two seasons, I will eliminate Smith-Njigba and Nabers. The Giants will likely have an entirely new offense next season, and we have no idea who will be the quarterback.
In Seattle, Smith-Njigba is still likely to be the fighting D.K. Metcalf for targets in 2025, and they could be looking at a quarterback change soon, too. With that said, I am going to take Harrison over McConkey.
Both have good quarterbacks and are in systems that perfectly fit their talents. Maybe it's just perception, but most would tell you that McConkey is having a great season while Harrison is a disappointment.
But the numbers show McConkey is only about two fantasy points per game better. As Harrison gets more comfortable, we should see more consistency in his game, and that gap will not be hard to close.
Jeff Haseley: For me, this is Malik Nabers. He has that alpha receiver mentality that we see from Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja'Marr Chase. He expects to be thrown to, and he has the tools to make plays multiple times per game.
If there is one noteworthy downside to Nabers, it's the concussion scare he had that kept him out for two games. An upside for Nabers is that the Giants are in an ideal position to draft a franchise quarterback in next year's draft. If they can finally hit on a quarterback, the sky is the limit for Nabers.
Andy Hicks: Two seasons is an interesting twist to the question. Over the length of their careers, you would pick the best receiver, which seems to be Malik Nabers. But over the next two years? Nabers is stuck on a Giants team without an answer at quarterback or head coach. Kind of important for a lead receiver. Just ask Garrett Wilson over at the Jets.
Harrison was the highest-drafted player and is having a nice season in his own right. However, his connection with Kyler Murray limits his upside. Harrison seems to be settled into that nice fantasy WR2 role unless the rapport improves in the offseason.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has improved greatly in his second season. But he has DK Metcalf on the field opposite him and Geno Smith is proving to be a reliable quarterback, but there are better options if you were an up-and-coming young receiver.
That leaves Ladd McConkey, who would be my choice. He has a top passing quarterback in Justin Herbert and a reliable head coach—something that none of the other three guys have. That gives McConkey a very high floor. With Quentin Johnston failing to deliver and the rookie proving reliable and productive, McConkey will have a great start to his career.
Phil Alexander: I doubt this will be a popular answer outside of our staff, but knowing what we know today, I'm picking Ladd McConkey. McConkey has been sensational as a rookie. Since the Chargers returned from their Week 5 bye, he ranks as the WR7 in PPR leagues. And the rookie's 2.39 yards per route run places him in elite historical company among wide receivers younger than 23.
But I'm not picking McConkey first in this cohort so much as I'm choosing his quarterback. Justin Herbert provides stability the other receivers won't have in Geno Smith (probably), whomever the Giants get in this year's draft (or sign as a bridge), and Kyler Murray, respectively. With McConkey, I'm probably not getting the highest ceiling from this group, but I am getting the player who proved more than the others as a rookie, tied to a 26-year-old borderline superstar quarterback. He seems like the safest bet by a fairly wide margin.
Waldman: While I like Nabers more as a talent and am not as concerned about his situation turning into the Jets across town, I'll co-sign McConkey as the safest option with a high ceiling.
Joseph Hagan: McConkey may be the least desirable name on this list, but he is attached to the best quarterback of the bunch. Since the Chargers Week 5 bye, McConkey has been the WR7. The Chargers have been playing fantastic football as well.
McConkey is tied to quarterback Justin Herbert, who is young and a top 5-7 quarterback in the NFL. Nabers will be tied to whoever the Giants draft, leading to growing pains. Harrison has Kyler Murray, who has struggled in his own right but also seems to be looking for TE Trey McBride way before Harrison.
Smith-Njigba currently has Geno Smith, but we will see how long. McConkey has the most stable situation and is also playing as a legitimate WR1.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Hot Fantasy Players, Narrative or Substance?
- Playoff Bench Stashes
- Potential League-Winning RBs
- Dynasty WR Value Check
Good luck!