Fantasy performers can emerge down the stretch after GMs labeled them too early. This might include Rachaad White, Bo Nix, and Ladd McConkey. This trio is a part of seven other declining performers we're discussing this week.
Welcome to Week 12 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Rebound or Regroup? Declining Performers
- Tommy DeVito's Potential
- Performers on the Rise? Or False Alarm? (see below)
- Would You Rather...
Let's roll
Performers on the Rise? Or False Alarm?
Matt Waldman: These seven players have delivered increased weekly production since Week 7.
- Ladd McConkey: WR18 but WR8 since Week 7
- Khalil Shakir: WR19 but WR12 since Week 7
- A.J. Brown: WR29 but WR17 since Week 7
- Joe Mixon RB18 but RB9 since Week 7
- Rachaad White RB23 but RB13 since Week 7
- Bo Nix QB7 but QB4 since Week 7
- Drake Maye QB26 but QB12 since Week 7
Pick the two most likely to continue their rise for fantasy GMs. Pick the two least likely to sustain their value since Week 7.
Believe the Bump
Andy Hicks: A.J. Brown missed a significant chunk of the season and hasn’t had a touchdown since Week 7. Brown was a consensus elite receiver heading into the season. His skills aren't remotely in decline, and his surrounding talent is healthy.
Brown should transcend his WR17 ranking because the Eagles' offense is beginning to click. Brown just needs a few touchdowns to make this prediction one of the easiest we will ever have.
Jeff Bell: Brown is the easy choice. We have a sustained record of elite play over six seasons. We know who Brown is, and it is not WR29.
Joseph Haggan: Brown will keep rising. He is one of the top receivers in the league. His health held him back early in the season, but he has still had some big output games. Brown scored in his first three games of the season. Keeping him out of the endzone will be tough, and he should continue his rise up the rankings.
Joe Mixon should continue to rise, and I would not be surprised with a top-5 finish on the season. He has 20 or more carries in five consecutive games and 100 rushing yards or more in all but two games this season.
He has only failed to hit paydirt in just one game this season. The one thing that held him back early in the year was availability and a lack of passing game volume.
Bell: Mixon was injured early in the season. Watching his three touchdowns against the Cowboys, Mixon moved like he has rarely moved. He has played the season motivated by the trade from Cincinnati, and it will continue.
Sam Wagman: Joe Mixon continues to be one of the best stories of this NFL season. He has been an incredibly strong weapon for the Texans during their stretch without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
He is a top-three back by PPG since returning from injury. However, does Mixon's schedule spell trouble since he doesn't catch many passes? Games against the Chiefs and Ravens in the fantasy playoffs could spell doom for the veteran RB.
Haggan: Mixon has 44 receiving yards in each of the past two games. I'm not so concerned, Sam. Mixon is the focal point of this offense and will continue to be.
Hicks: Mixon is having the best year of his career. He is likely to smash career yardage and touchdown numbers and is on a real purple patch of form.
Mixon has 9 touchdowns in his last six appearances and 100 yards rushing in five of those six games. With C.J. Stroud not quite at his best, it is easy for the Texans to lean on Mixon. The Titans and Jaguars are next up and are a dream matchup for a player in great form.
Ryan Weisse: Mixon's season-long ranking is an aberration because he missed three games due to injury. When he is on the field, Mixon might be the best running back in fantasy this season. He is the definition of a bell-cow back, as no other running back on the team has more than 25 carries in 11 games.
The Texans are content to give him the ball 20-25 times per game, and he is doing wonders with that work. Not only will he sustain his new ranking, but Mixon will likely continue to climb as the season goes on.
Jeff Haseley: Mixon has been a consistent force in the Texans offense, and I don't feel like that will change anytime soon, especially because he can be utilized as a receiving threat if and when the game script calls for it. He's a set-it-and-forget-it weekly start with no signs of letting up.
Rachaad White's versatile skill set elevates his game. He can produce as a rusher and receiver, making him a player the Buccaneers should target regardless of the game situation.
As a result, his fantasy value has more stability. The Buccaneers also have a favorable schedule with only one difficult matchup (Week 15 at the LA Chargers). The other games include two against Carolina, the Giants, Las Vegas, and New Orleans.
Weisse: Ladd McConkey has become a favorite for Justin Herbert, and the Chargers are throwing the ball more than most thought they would. He's been on a steady pace of six targets and four catches per game this entire season.
Early in the year, he was buried in the rankings by others having boom games, but slow and steady wins the race. He can still score touchdowns, though Quentin Johnston is stealing those right now, but McConkey does not need to score to remain relevant in PPR scoring. Any touchdowns moving forward are the icing on the cake.
Wagman: Both Khalil Shakir and Drake Maye are players I could see retaining their value. Shakir has become the Bills' de facto WR1 despite the emergence of Keon Coleman and the arrival of Amari Cooper. Both have been out with injuries, but Shakir has been more consistent with targets even when healthy.
Maye has been a pleasant surprise despite the notable issues of the NE offensive line; he seems to be performing well. His work as a runner boosts his fantasy capabilities.
False Alarm: The Bump Is Temporary
Hicks: Bo Nix has been perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2024 season. After a very shaky start with four interceptions and zero passing touchdowns in his first three games, Nix has been phenomenal of late.
He has looked like a seasoned professional over the last month and Nix promises to have a great future when the receiving corp gets better. For the rest of this season though, ranking in the top half of fantasy quarterbacks will be difficult.
Waldman: Why? You just stated that he looks like a seasoned veteran, and from my film study, his maturity as a game manager has been driving his quick learning curve. What will make his continued ascent difficult?
Hicks: His receivers are either young or journeymen, and Courtland Sutton isn't the epitome of a WR1. I fear Nix will see more defensive adjustments in the coming weeks, which could prove more difficult for his receivers and lead to mistakes and lower production.
Waldman: Fair enough. I wanted to make sure our readers got a reason for the difficulty.
Hicks: I'll also mention the other rookie because there have been a bunch of the top-ranked quarterbacks on byes, and it makes it easier for a player like Drake Maye to sneak into the top 12 quarterbacks during a brief window of the season.
It won’t last. While Maye has had moments that project a promising future, it will not happen with a substandard group of receivers. Where there may be more hope for NIx, Maye turns the ball over too much.
Haseley: While I am impressed at the early returns for both Nix and Maye, they are still learning to fine-tune their craft and adapt to their team's offensive schemes. Both players can provide decent fantasy numbers while learning.
However, I believe we are currently seeing the positive output of an ebb-and-flow season, but the downward drift is on the horizon. In other words, I don't see them sustaining their high level of play consistently for the rest of the season.
Opposing defenses will have collected enough intel from their pro scouts, and we'll begin seeing game plans that test these rookies. Expect Nix and Maye to see more coverage and blitz disguises that trip them up and hurt their overall production.
Bell: Maye rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 and 95 yards in Week 9. Over those two weeks, he averaged 12.8 yards per carry. For a player with a Vegas over/under routinely set around 200 yards, it is more likely that rushing production and the fantasy points it spun off will not happen regularly.
Haggan: As much as I like Drake Maye, his ascension likely halts here and to no fault of his own. Maye continues to prove that he belongs in the NFL, playing at a high level and limiting turnovers.
Unfortunately for him, his offensive line has been atrocious in pass blocking, allowing the fourth-most sacks in the league. He also has one of the worst receiving groups in the NFL. When Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte are your top two wideouts, it is tough to stay competitive.
It will be hard for Khalil Shakir to continue his rise. He has become a favorite of Josh Allen, which bodes well in his favor. The Bills are on a bye this week, which gives Allen and newcomer Amari Cooper extra time to get acquainted. Cooper is too good to be limited as much as he has. With Cooper grasping more of the offense, I expect him to garner more attention on offense, limiting Shakir.
Weisse: Shakir has benefited from being the only healthy, established receiver in Buffalo over the last month. As Amari Cooper comes along and Keon Coleman gets healthy, Shakir's volume will dip, and he'll come back down to Earth.
It just so happens that Buffalo's Week 12 bye fell at the perfect time for those two things to occur. Shakir still has top-30 value in PPR leagues, but don't expect many top-15 weeks.
I disagree with Jeff on Rachaad White. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin's injuries made White the most established pass catcher for Tampa Bay.
With Mike Evans set to return in Week 12 and the Buccaneers coming off a Week 11 bye, I suspect that Evans and the other receivers -- Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard in particular -- will be ready to play a larger role in the passing game.
Throw in the fact that White has been putrid as a runner and should also cede carries to Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker, and you have a recipe for a steep fall to close the fantasy season.
Bell: I like White and enjoy my private island in fantasy football as one of the few who believe he is talented.
Waldman: Are there little umbrellas in what you're drinking, Jeff? Or did Sigmund Bloom give you a stamp to lick before your trip?
Bell: Ha! The Timothy Leary of Footballguys was not around. But is he truly a Leary type?
Waldman: Probably not, but I know some musicians who might wonder if he was because of his professed love for Phish. Tell us about White.
Bell: Over the last four games, his 5 receptions and 41 receiving-yard average works out to full-season numbers of 85-697. There have been 22 backs who have recorded 85-700 seasons in NFL history.
White also has four receiving touchdowns over those four games. That 17-game pace is easy math.
Johnny (Blood) McNally from the 1931 Green Bay Packers holds the NFL record with 11 touchdown receptions by a running back. So either White finishes the season pacing as one of the best receiving backs ever to maintain RB13 status, or his split with Bucky Irving causes him to fall back.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Rebound or Regroup? Declining Performers
- Tommy DeVito's Potential
- Performers on the Rise? Or False Alarm?
- Would You Rather...
Good luck!