Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels are delivering fantasy starter production in one-QB formats. What does the Footballguys staff think about their present and future value?
Welcome to Week 11 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Giants QB Lock's Potential
- Cowboys QB Lance's Potential
- Late-Week Replacement Picks
- Rookie QBs: Nix vs. Daniels (see below)
Let's roll.
Bo Nix vs. Jayden Daniels
Matt Waldman: Bo Nix is the No.6 option since Week 6 -- Jayden Daniels is 12th. During this span, Nix has 8 touchdowns to Daniels' 5. Nix's completion percentage is 65.4, and Daniels' is 60.3. Nix has also thrown for 90 more yards than Daniels and run for 7 more on only 2 more carries.
Nix is the most productive rookie quarterback in the NFL since Week 6 and 9th overall among fantasy quarterbacks when including the entire season. Daniels has slipped to 6th overall -- in part due to a blowout against the Panthers where Daniels left the game early.
Still, Nix compares favorably to Daniel in fantasy points and generosity of the opposition. In other words, his schedule hasn't been notably easier. In terms of generosity, the lower the number, the more generous the defense...
Nix vs. Daniels
*The Commanders routed the Panthers early and subbed Marcus Mariota for Daniels.
This info is by no means definitive data on the subject, but it paints a clear picture that the strength of schedules isn't a narrative to define the difference between the two.
With this info in mind, answer the following:
- Who would you rather have for the rest of the season?
- Do you see both developing into competent starters and top-15 fantasy producers?
- Other than injury, what have you seen that could derail either player?
Proceed...
Nix vs. Daniels: Rest of the season preference...
Jason Wood: The disparity between Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels is even greater on a per-game basis from Week 6 through Week 10. According to our database, Daniels ranks as QB20 over that span, compared to Nix's QB12 ranking. Even when excluding the Week 7 game against the Panthers (as Matt noted), Nix still comfortably outscored Daniels during this period.
Daniels has faced two main issues lately: (1) his rushing attempts have dropped significantly from 11.4 attempts in the first five games to 6.3 attempts over the next four games (excluding the Cardinals game again), and (2) his hyper-efficiency from the start of the season has leveled out. He completed an unsustainable 82% of his passes in his first four starts, which has since dropped to 60%.
In terms of whom I'd rather have over the rest of the season, I'll give the nod to Nix for several reasons. Here are the biggest two.
- I have more faith in Sean Payton's offensive adaptability than Kliff Kingsbury's. We can't discount that defenses have figured out Kingsbury's moves, and now he has to show he can counter, something that he couldn't do in Arizona with Kyler Murray.
- The Broncos have a much more favorable fantasy schedule remaining. Denver has only one below-average matchup remaining (Cleveland, Week 13), whereas the Commanders have three tough matchups left.
I didn't think I'd be favoring Nix heading into the season, but rookies are volatile -- especially at quarterback.
Phil Alexander: Jayden Daniels is the pick for me because the upside is what delivers fantasy championships. While their average scoring is close, Daniels has shown he is likelier to earn 20, 25, or 30 fantasy points than Nix in any given week.
I might prefer Nix in his next two matchups (vs. ATL, @LV) over Daniels (@PHI, vs. DAL), but it's not like Washington's schedule down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs is prohibitive. The margin between these two is narrower than I first thought, but if I have Daniels, I'm sticking with the gal who brought me to the dance.
Corey Spala: I would rather have Bo Nix for the remainder of the season. Denver has a favorable schedule for the remainder of the season compared to Washington.
Nix had a slow four-game start to the season, as he averaged 12.4 points per game and had four turnovers. Since then, he has averaged 20.4 points per game with two turnovers.
This is not to diminish Daniels and his success but rather to put his situation into perspective compared to Nix’s. Daniels had four rushing touchdowns through his first four games and has had zero since.
Sean Settle: Bo Nix is the player I would prefer to have the rest of the season. The biggest reason why is the favorable schedule matchup for Denver vs. Washington. The only tough fantasy matchup left for the Broncos is Cleveland, while the Commanders face Philadelphia twice and a surprisingly good Tennessee defense.
Jayden Daniels has leveled off his hyper-efficiency from the first few weeks, when he completed 80%+ of passes, and has cut his rushing attempts nearly in half since sustaining his rib injury earlier this season. Neither starter has elite receivers surrounding them, but Nix has a more adaptable, offensive-minded coach and a better remaining schedule. It is a close race, but I would prefer to have Nix for the rest of the season.
Matt Montgomery: For the rest of the season, I would rather have Jayden Daniels. The offense around him gives me a better feeling that it can remain consistent. Terry McLaurin looks like a completely different receiver with Daniels at the helm and has been a dynamic threat.
Zach Ertz has been a serviceable safety valve option underneath the coverage and the one-two punch of Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr in the running game gives the offense the ability to run a formidable play action. I also believe Daniels' rushing upside is vastly superior to that of Nix in the long term.
Dan Hindery: For me, it’s Daniels by a mile. This season, Daniels is averaging 8.54 adjusted yards per attempt (AYA), while Nix is averaging 5.86 AYA. That’s a massive gap in productivity. For context, Daniel Jones has a career AYA of 6.14. While I know this is a fantasy discussion, the players' actual performance matters, and I’m far more convinced that Daniels is genuinely good at football.
Matt Waldman: Just to irritate Bob Harris, Robert Griffin III's data looked eerily similar to Daniels' as a rookie -- down to an 8.59 AYA. To Jason's point, we haven't seen Kliff Kingsbury counter defenses effectively.
Mike Shanahan told ownership during Griffin's rookie year that the production wasn't going to last because defenses would catch up, and he believed Griffin didn't have the sustainable skills to develop beyond what he was doing.
Most in the media, draft circles, and the public believed Griffin could develop. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself or if Daniels transcends his offense, which is built on a lot of schemed-up plays that opponents eventually solve with enough scouting.
Can they become perennial top-15 fantasy producers?
Spala: Both quarterbacks are currently top-15 in points per game -- Daniels QB8 and Nix QB13. Over the last six games, Nix is QB7, and Daniels is QB18, or QB13 removing Week 7 when he left in the second quarter. They should be able to sustain their production so long as they are healthy and be threats to repeat in the future as long as they continue to their development arc.
Settle: With the constantly changing landscape of head coaches and players, it is nearly impossible to predict what a player will do. However, Nix and Daniels have all the tools available to be consistent top-15 quarterbacks in this league.
Daniels will need to continue to protect his health and be a more conscious runner, and Nix will need to take more chances and push the ball down the field. Both players could benefit from a more consistent receiving group but have the rushing ability to stay relevant for a long time. With the right supporting moves, each player could be a franchise quarterback for their respective teams.
Hindery: Daniels has established himself as a competent starter and a top-15 fantasy performer. There's every reason to believe he'll continue playing great football.
The Commanders are in excellent shape regarding their salary cap, allowing them to surround Daniels with more talent moving forward. Nix has a good chance of developing into a competent starter. I'd estimate the odds at slightly above 50%.
If he secures the starting role long-term, his rushing ability gives him a solid shot at remaining a top-15 fantasy performer. However, it's worth noting he's averaging one passing touchdown per game. If Nix is rushing for 25 yards per game and occasionally scoring a rushing touchdown, that's not enough to place him in the top 15 without significantly improving his passing numbers.
Wood: Yes, because a top-15 ranking is a relatively low bar to leap over in today's NFL quarterback landscape. Less than two fantasy points per game separate QB13 from QB22, and that disparity matches historical norms. So, being a "top-15" quarterback is as much about matchups, supporting cast, and health.
Montgomery: I believe that both can become top-15 fantasy options. We are already seeing Jayden Daniels produce numbers at or above this threshold over a large sample size, but Bo Nix shouldn’t be pushed to the side on this either. Nix has a superior offensive coach, which will benefit him.
Maybe it won’t be long-ball exciting plays, but death by 1,000 cuts is still death! Nix has shown command of the Broncos' offense lately, and because of this, we will see him continue to grow under Sean Payton's tutelage.
Alexander: Yes. And top-10 is by no means a stretch. In terms of season-to-date cumulative fantasy scoring, Daniels is the QB6, and Nix is the QB9. Daniels' efficiency has leveled off, as Jason mentioned. But he has also been playing through a painful rib injury, and his last matchup against the Steelers was as tough as it gets for opposing quarterbacks.
Injuries aside, what could derail Nix or Daniels?
Alexander: For Nix, not much. He generally has the green light to run and has gotten by to this point with a group of random pass catchers (outside of Courtland Sutton).
For Daniels, it might not be an injury that derails him so much as the fear of injury (or further injury). Before hurting his ribs against Carolina in Week 6, he rushed for three touchdowns from inside the opponent's five-yard line. Since the injury, he's got zero goal-line scores, and we've seen more of those short looks go to the team's running backs, particularly Austin Ekeler. He's been fine without scoring from in close, but 30-point weekly ceilings are much easier to reach with goal-line touchdowns.
Montgomery: What worries me the most about Jayden Daniels is that he could rely on his legs more than he should. This could cause issues with the fluidity of this offense.
While we haven’t seen this yet, and this is a good sign, there have been instances in the past where we have seen athletic quarterbacks start to believe in their athletic ability to the point that the wear and tear in their bodies eventually affect their psyche in the pocket.
What worries me about Bo Nix is how he plays football. This feels like an antiquated way to play the quarterback position in 2024. It is working, so this isn’t a shot at the results we have seen, but I believe if Sean Payton were to leave, we would see a completely different player in Nix. He has a skill set that is more limited than Daniels, so it is more crucial for him to “fit” a system as opposed to Daniels who would be a one size fits all type of option.
Hindery: My concern with Nix is that he may turn out to be a solid player but not quite good enough to challenge Patrick Mahomes II and Justin Herbert at the top of the AFC West. He’ll be turning 25 in a few months, which raises the question: Is he already closer to being a finished product than most rookie quarterbacks?
While the general vibe around Nix in Denver is very positive right now, what happens if he approaches the end of his rookie deal and the Broncos are still stuck in a rut of third-place finishes in the division? Would you want to commit to him with a market-rate second contract?
I haven't seen anything that suggests Daniels' career might be derailed, barring injury. The confidence his teammates already have in him is remarkable for such a young player. That's the top quality I look for in young quarterbacks, and the locker room sentiment around Daniels midway through his rookie year is as positive as I've seen for any quarterback at a similar stage.
Another potential issue for Nix could be if any offensive line problems arise. He’s currently benefiting from what might be the best pass-blocking line in the league. The Broncos lead the league by a wide margin in pass-block win rate, and Nix has the second-longest average time before getting sacked, only behind Brock Purdy. While his pass catchers may not be elite, he’s getting incredible protection and, in recent games, has had all day to throw.
Waldman: Just because I want to offer a contrary assessment to Daniels -- and for the record, I believe he can become a good long-term starter -- I'm going to share this flood of superlatives written in 2012 about Griffin. Or, how about Shanahan raving about Griffin's smarts and ability as a quick study?
Click the last link, and you'll hear tons of love from veterans. That all changed with injury and an eventual public rift between Griffin and Shanahan.
The former coach who was either sharing the real truth afterward or exhibiting revisionist history after the fact, told the media that he never saw Griffin as a capable pocket quarterback who could handle a legitimate NFL offense. Based on what we saw later in Griffin's career, he wasn't a capable decision-maker once opposing defenses knew what his game was about.
Daniels has the potential to develop a more complete game than Griffin if I were to use what I've earned about scouting quarterbacks since first evaluating Griffin. Still, I don't always trust the sentiment of a locker room or coach because players are trained to understand that the athletes and media have an inherently adversarial relationship.
As far as pass protection is concerned, I'd note that if you watch Bo Nix and Brock Purdy, they maneuver from pressure well and have had to do so in every game in a way that would have been too disruptive for half the quarterbacks in the league. Their line play is good, but their pocket management is a bigger factor than the data indicates.
Spala: As rookie quarterbacks, defenses should have enough film to find flaws in their play and their respective schemes. If a defense can develop a game plan to counter their strengths, there could be regression as the season progresses. Additionally, if the offensive play callers are not adapting to the defense, this could limit the quarterback's play.
Wood: The Commanders are paper-thin at receiver right now, and if Terry McLaurin gets hurt, it's hard to imagine Jayden Daniels keeping his fantasy-starter value. In contrast, the Broncos aren’t exactly loaded either—Courtland Sutton isn’t an ideal No. 1—but their offense isn’t built around just one player like Washington’s is with McLaurin.
The main concern with Bo Nix is his tendency to play it too safe sometimes. Back in college, he’d often go for low-risk, easy throws instead of pushing the ball downfield, even when his team needed to keep the pressure on. For Nix to thrive, he’ll need to shake that habit and take some calculated shots to keep the offense moving.
Settle: The answer for each player is the same. Their respective teams must not continue adding productive pieces around them. Javonte Williams has proven he cannot be relied on as the No.1 running back for the Broncos, and Courtland Sutton is a good receiver but not the traditional primary option who can take over a game.
The Commanders have a better running game and Terry McLaurin is a slight bump over Sutton, but Noah Brown is not a reliable No.2. Both players have done extremely well with the offensive weapons given to them, but each franchise will need to add/replace players to keep a sustained run of top-tier fantasy production.
Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Giants QB Lock's Potential
- Cowboys QB Lance's Potential
- Late-Week Replacement Picks
- Rookie QBs: Nix vs. Daniels
Good luck!