Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison Jr., and C.J. Stroud have been dramatically worse in October than their overall fantasy rankings this year. What does the Footballguys staff think about their fantasy value for the rest of the year?
Welcome to Week 10 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- The Cowboys Without Prescott
- Midseason Grab Bag
- Would You Rather, Dynasty Edition
- Dump, Bench, and Start (see below)
Let's roll.
Dump, Bench, Start
Matt Waldman: Since Week 6, these players have drastically underperformed relative to their overall fantasy ranking.
- WR10 Jayden Reed (WR30 since Week 6)
- WR21 Marvin Harrison Jr., Jr. (WR 45 since Week 6)
- QB14 C.J. Stroud (QB21 since Week 6)
Pick one to Dump, one to Bench, and one to Start. Our readers know that you aren't likely to dump any of them in a real league.
Gary Davenport: My “Start” here would be Harrison. Yes, his numbers haven’t been great. But the talent is undeniable, and he’s always just one long pass away from a big stat line.
The “Bench” is Stroud. Injuries have had as much to do with Stroud’s drop-off in production as the quarterback himself, and the return of Nico Collins (possibly as soon as this week) should give Stroud a boost.
That leaves Reed as the “Dump.” The Green Bay Packers are loaded with young talent at wide receiver, and while it’s a good problem for the team to have from an NFL perspective, the havoc it wreaks on target share isn’t going away anytime soon.
Justin Howe: Harrison, who’s very, very good at football, is my start. We saw two weeks ago that, when a Cardinals game is competitive, they’ll be looking to involve Harrison early and often.
His raw numbers haven’t impressed, but the 22% target share has been solid, especially since he’s being used primarily down the field.
Harrison’s sky-high 14.6 aDOT and basement-low 51% catch rate look like early outliers. Before long, I expect he’ll be drawing consistent 8-12 targets a game – and winning downfield more often than not.
Waldman: His catch rate isn't an outlier based on his film. I pointed out this week that most of the football media has glossed over his real issues as a pass catcher. While I agree he is talented and likely remains a viable fantasy option, I would not anoint him an immediate top-15 fantasy WR with the problems he has winning against man coverage. I am also concerned he returns to startable fantasy value in two-WR sets this year.
Howe: I like Jordan Love and his weapons, but this is (a) a crowded group that doesn’t offer predictable volume and (b) a touchdown-dependent group that needs the red zone to produce. Since the start of last season, only the Cowboys have thrown more near the goal line than these Packers. All those touchdowns have obscured the fact that no Packer has claimed more than 17% of team targets. That makes all of them – including Reed, who’s only topped 8 targets once in 25 NFL games – tough to project week-to-week. Chasing touchdowns is tricky; I prefer to chase catches and yards, which lead to touchdowns. I'm benching Reed.
Dump Stroud, as I’m doing this week in my highest-leverage league (in a deal for Brock Purdy). Stroud still very much looks the part of an NFL cornerstone, but the numbers simply aren’t there right now. And if you have a Purdy or a Baker Mayfield in reserve, there’s no reason to chase them. At the moment, Stroud looks hampered by a shaky front line that’s forcing him to move early and often. He’s capable, but that’s not his game. He doesn’t need to be prioritized right now; there are 12-15 other guys with similar floors and ceilings.
Sam Wagman: Dump: Marvin Harrison Jr. He has had a rough time being consistent in the Cardinals' offense. This is understandable, given there is no real second weapon to draw attention away from him and the Cardinals have been a run-heavy attack to start. This does not seem to be ending, despite defensive struggles.
Waldman: Sam, Tre McBride is TE4 in PPR formats this year and in a combined WR/TE ranking, McBride sits 22nd among fantasy point-getters at these two positions. He's a low-end WR2. I'd argue that's a real second weapon.
Wagman: True. Perhaps this is more on Kyler Murray, who hasn't delivered more than one passing touchdown in a game twice -- his Week 2 performance against a bad Rams defense and in Week 8 against the Dolphins.
Given the injuries to Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, I would bench C.J. Stroud. With Tank Dell getting better by the week and Collins close to returning, hopefully, Stroud will return to his former dominance that we've come to expect. Stash with the assumption that we see this offense start to come to life again.
Despite the inconsistency, Jayden Reed has shown that he carries a strong WR1 ceiling in his range of outcomes. We need to realize that that can come every week, despite the GB wide receiver room being a mix-up of options. He's a definite start.
Waldman: I'm awestruck by the characterization that Reed is inconsistent overall this year. Reed is averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game in PPR formats, and 14 points per game is approximately the baseline for top-15 WR production at this point of the season.
Reed's production by week:
- Week 1: 33.1
- Week 2: 6.6
- Week 3: 11.9
- Week 4: 26.9
- Week 5: 13.7
- Week 6: 14.8
- Week 7: 3
- Week 8: 7.5
- Week 9: 16.3
We're looking at 30 percent of his weeks falling below starter value. A 70 percent consistency rate as a top-15 starter is excellent. He's not inconsistent this year.
Wagman: Yes, but the question has to do with the past four weeks, right? Reed has been inconsistent for the past four weeks and I am concerned that will continue due to the Packers' depth chart.
Waldman I see that. While Reed is far and away the most productive receiver on the team, that is a possibility, even if I see it as improbable. Fair point, Sam.
Jeff Bell: Stroud had an excellent rookie season. Still, there was little reason to rank him as aggressively as he was in redraft formats.
We now have four years of high-level football and the rushing yard Stroud will need to earn a top-six quarterback value is unlikely. Meanwhile, he no longer has Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell has only shown flashes of his rookie potential, and Nico Collins is just returning from injury.
Week 8 was encouraging for Harrison and the first time the Cardinals treated him like an alpha receiver. Arizona varied Harrison's usage in the passing game.
In Week 9, the team built a significant lead, a position where they were more than willing to lean on the run game. The Cardinals are in the thick of the playoff race and know they need to continue to develop Harrison in short order to meet those goals.
Reed is on pace for nearly 1,400 scrimmage yards while his quarterback has missed time, and he has played through ankle, calf, and quadriceps injuries. I am not concerned in the slightest about him. He's a start.
Andy Hicks: Simply stated, start Reed, bench Harrison and dump Stroud.
Stroud is missing his better receivers. Stefon Diggs is gone for the year and Nico Collins has only played five games. His absence coincides with a major dip in form for Stroud. He has one touchdown in three weeks and barely completed 50% of his passes during this time. I wouldn’t be looking at starting him until Collins comes back.
Harrison is a rookie. He is also on a bye this week. Once he returns, he gets a soft pass schedule without a top-10 defense on the run home. If you have other viable options, start them. Otherwise, ride it out until he is either unstartable or back in form. He has had a solid debut season and is on track to go close to 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Jayden Reed is the clear number-one receiver in Green Bay. His most recent performance was 5 catches for 113 yards. Feel comfortable starting him, although he will have days where other receivers get their share of the pie.
Jason Wood: As Andy pointed out, Jayden Reed’s recent struggles were simply the natural ups and downs that affect all fantasy players over a full season. He’s coming off another strong performance, and there’s a case to be made that he’s the true alpha on his team.
Reed is my choice as the start. However, with multiple other options in the offense, Reed remains a somewhat volatile asset on a week-to-week basis.
If you’re still starting players based solely on preseason rankings, you may have lost more weeks than you’ve won with Harrison, especially if you drafted him as your No. 1 receiver. While Kyler Murray’s inconsistency has impacted Harrison’s season, his metrics compared to other Cardinals players tell a clear story.
Harrison has a 50.9% catch rate, while Trey McBride (75.0%), Michael Wilson (67.5%), Greg Dortch (65.6%), James Conner (76.0%), Emari Demercado (78.6%), and Elijah Higgins (92.3%) are all performing more efficiently. Harrison’s pedigree and talent are too valuable to drop, but for now, he belongs on your bench.
In non-superflex leagues, most quarterbacks are interchangeable. Stroud was our consensus “elite quarterback to avoid” in drafts due to an ADP that left no margin for error, and now we’re seeing the potential downside. The injuries to his receiving corps have made Stroud too unreliable to count on. Cutting him isn’t a huge risk since viable quarterbacks are usually available on waivers.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- The Cowboys Without Prescott
- Midseason Grab Bag
- Would You Rather, Dynasty Edition
- Dump, Bench, and Start
Good luck!