Roundtable: Waiver-Wire Strategy

How we prioritize talent versus need with free agents is a vital part of a strong waiver-wire strategy. 

Welcome to Week 5 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Running Back Rank'em
• Dynasty Values of Great But Aging Players
• What to Do with the Dolphins WRs?
• Waiver-Wire Strategy (see below)

Let's roll.

Waiver-Wire Strategy

Matt Waldman: Need, talent, and opportunity (snaps/touches) are three significant factors in bidding/acquisition decisions off waivers. When opportunity is close to equal how do you prioritize roster need vs talent?

What about this scenario: 

You have a short-term hole at RB, and you can get Trey Sermon. But let's presume that we agree that Dontayvion Wicks is by far the best talent on the board. If you disagree with Wicks as the best talent on the board, feel free to imagine whomever you want in Wicks' place at WR.

Do you take Sermon to fill that short-term hole or take the talent where you are already strong? 

Joseph Haggan: In this scenario, it all depends on my current roster construction. I would look at my current wide receiver group. Does Wicks find a place where he will usurp one of my current starters, or will he be a bye-week filler?

If Wicks will be my WR4/5 at best, I am going with my team's need for a running back and taking Trey Sermon. The immediate impact will help ease the decision. I would rather put out a weekly full roster than grab a talented player who will ride my bench. 

Corey Spala: I will first identify my league’s settings and roster construction. If I am in a league starting two wide receivers and have four wide receivers ahead of Dontayvion Wicks, I would lean toward acquiring the right-now running back production.

If I have four top wide receivers, I may have faded the running back position in the draft. You certainly could acquire Wicks (the talent) and trade away for the need (running back). This is contingent on you getting a trade done, and you likely would be acquiring the lesser talent (running back) anyway.  

I want to play the game week-to-week. A running back who is expected to claim their respective team’s RB1 workload is intriguing. Jonathan Taylor has a “mild” high ankle sprain, and as of now, Indianapolis is not planning on assigning him to injured reserve. This ankle is the same ankle Taylor had surgery on in January 2023. Sermon may have multiple weeks of potential RB1 usage and be an intriguing week-to-week start.

Justin Howe: I don’t find it productive to chase the “best” short-term talent that pops up in a given week. I like Wicks, and I think he’ll make someone very happy. But if I already have four top-35 receivers, then what’s my objective in adding him? 

A hole is a hole, and it needs to be filled. There are so few true hole-fillers – guys who can start multiple games for you – just sitting on the wire. Sermon will be needed for sure, at a position that requires some degree of predictability. I’m not likely to pass that up for… what? An upgrade at WR5? That could be worth a small bid and priority, but most likely, Wicks will never see my hypothetical starting lineup.

Ryan Weisse: I will forever and always prioritize running backs on waivers. I would take Sermon in the situation mentioned because the running back pool is so shallow, and the wide receivers are so very deep. While it initially appears that Sermon is a short-term rental, if Taylor misses more time than expected, Sermon could be a fantasy team's RB2 on volume alone.

Think Jordan Mason. Plus, it is far easier to trade running backs. The market is clamoring for them every week because it seems a running back gets hurt every week. Just because I only need them this week doesn't mean they are less valuable next week. I do not focus on roster construction until after the trade deadline. Most of my fantasy benches are all running backs right now. 

Dan Hindery: In general, I prioritize filling immediate roster needs. The season is short, and the urgency to stack wins in the short term often outweighs longer-term strategies, as long as there isn’t a significant difference in my valuation of the players involved.

This is especially true for the running back position. If you’re in a tough spot, a short-term boost from a player like Sermon can be crucial to staying competitive until your top backs return. 

However, if you believe Dontayvion Wicks has a legitimate WR2 upside this season, it's wise to ignore short-term needs, as he belongs in a completely different tier than a temporary injury fill-in like Sermon. Unless you are desperate at running back, I recommend prioritizing Wicks over Sermon this week. 

Waldman: Dan, I love your answer because you highlighted exactly when you should ignore the short-term hole-filling mentality. Another scenario where I'd recommend ignoring Sermon and taking Wicks is if you're 4-0 or 3-1 in a league where the rest of your competition is 2-3 games behind you in the standings, and you've been weak at your RB2 or RB3 spot the entire time.

If that's the case, I'd also choose the top talent over the need because your team is likely good enough to continue performing at this level without the lower-end RB, and you can use Wicks or another receiver on your roster to trade for a better player at that position of need.