Roundtable: Start, Hold, Cut, or Trade RB Edition

Chase Brown, Jaylen Wright, Tank Bigsby, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have been hot running backs in recent weeks.

Welcome to Week 6 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Start, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The RB Edition (see below)
• Bench, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The WR Edition
• For Real, Fool's Gold: The WR Edition
• October Rebound Candidates

Let's roll. 

Start, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The RB Edition

Matt Waldman: Assign each action to a back below. 

• Tank Bigsby
• Tyrone Tracy Jr.
• Chase Brown
• Jaylen Wright

Where do you stand? 

Jason Wood: Kudos to Matt, as always, for making our choices difficult. I genuinely like all four of these backs and think they should be rostered in all 12-team redraft leagues.

But in the interest of the exercise, I'll categorize them in this way.

Start Tank Bigsby. He has outperformed Travis Etienne Jr. in every aspect of the game, a stark contrast to last season when he seemed out of place on a 53-man roster. Bigsby leads the NFL with 4.2 yards over expected per attempt (Derrick Henry is second at 2.5 yards), while Etienne sits at 0.6 yards. Although Bigsby is still seeing fewer opportunities than Etienne, the trend is in his favor. The Jaguars can't afford to play favorites right now—they need to string together wins quickly to save everyone's jobs. 

Hold Chase Brown. I advocated strongly for Brown this preseason, partly because I saw Zack Moss as fool's gold. To Moss' credit, he has performed better than expected, but he's now injured, and Brown is starting to get more opportunities. Brown has the talent to surpass Moss as the lead back if given the chance, and that door may be opening right now. Brown ranks 7th in EPA per attempt (+0.10), while Moss lags in negative territory (-0.13).

As I've mentioned before, I like Tyrone Tracy Jr. and would gladly keep him on my roster. However, among this group, he's the one to trade after his 18-carry, 129-yard performance against the Seahawks. While I believe Tracy could become the Giants' featured back as the season progresses, there's no indication yet that Devin Singletary won't return to that role soon. Additionally, Eric Gray was ahead of Tracy on the depth chart until a couple of fumbles derailed his opportunity.

Cutting Jaylen Wright is tough, especially since he was one of my highest-rated rookies coming into the season. However, the Dolphins are in disarray, and Wright is, at best, the third option behind Raheem Mostert (who just returned from injury) and De'Von Achane (who is currently sidelined with a concussion).

Phil Alexander: We're slowly seeing the tables turn in Chase Brown's favor, and he's my choice to start. Over the last two weeks, he's seen 27 rush attempts to Zack Moss' 24 and narrowed the snap share gap from 80/20 in Moss' favor earlier this season to around 60/40. While the Bengals will continue to value Moss' skills in pass protection, Brown's production is becoming undeniable.

Per NFL Next Gen stats, Brown has 42 rushing yards over expected to Moss' -35 and a rushing EPA of +4.0 to Moss' -7.3. Cincinnati's defense has been one of the worst in the league, so they'll have to outscore their opponents to win. Brown is the one making plays in the running game. Look for him to continue taking more off Moss' plate until he's the lead back in one of the league's better offenses. 

Hold Tyrone Tracy Jr.. The theory behind Tracy getting more playing time as the season progresses is playing out according to plan. New York's offense is desperate for playmakers. Tracy has shown he can create chunk plays in the running game that Devin Singletary cannot, and now there's no putting the genie back in the bottle. At the very least, holding Tracy is mandatory until we see how the backfield looks when Singletary returns. He proved his league-tilting upside in Week 5 without even showing us what he's capable of as a receiver. 

Tank Bigsby's play has been a revelation, especially compared to how he looked as a rookie. There is no question Bigsby is currently Jacksonville's most effective runner, but I can't imagine the Jaguars completely phasing out Travis Etienne Jr.. Bigsby also provides zeroes in the receiving columns, and Jacksonville figures to be playing plenty of catchup most weeks. Unless Etienne gets traded or injured, you won't want Bigsby in your lineups in the weeks he fails to break off long runs. There probably won't be a better week to deal him, coming off a 100-plus yard, two-touchdown performance. Trade Bigsby.

If you have to cut one of these guys, it's Jaylen Wright by process of elimination. His upside is tantalizing, but the Dolphins are headed into their bye week, which gives De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson the time they need to get fully healthy. And if Tua Tagovailoa doesn't come back when he's eligible or takes another bad hit, Miami's offense isn't one you want to invest in.

Sam Wagman:  Over the past couple of weeks, Tank Bigsby has taken more and more of the pie away from Travis Etienne Jr.. Bigsby looks more explosive, the offensive coaching staff trusts him, and most importantly, he's getting in the end zone. Could Etienne get moved before the deadline, potentially? 

Hold Chase Brown. He's an asset that could explode over the back half of the season. Not even taking into account the severity of Zack Moss' ankle injury sustained in last week's game, Brown has continually looked better and better in the offense. His value is not at the point yet where he would be a sell-high, yet he's also surpassed the buy-low window as well. 

Jaylen Wright's role is least secure here, so we're cutting him. Despite the injury to De'Von Achane last week, Raheem Mostert came off of the injured list to lead the Dolphins in touches comfortably. I think Wright is very talented, but Mostert has the seniority and experience in this offense. It's not an easy cut, but Wright's role when all are healthy is the RB3, and he has two capable backs in front of him.

Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s value will likely never be higher this season than it is right now. Off a 100+ yard game against a tough NFC foe, and with Devin Singletary likely making his return soon, along with Malik Nabers, the window to deal Tracy for solid draft capital or a win-now player is closing quickly. 

Gary Davenport: As has already been mentioned, there isn't a “Cut” here—unless the bench is short or the roster loaded none of these backs are getting the gate. 

But rules are rules, so the Cut is Jaylen Wright. It's just a numbers game. He's the No. 3 back in a loaded Miami backfield, and with Raheem Mostert healthy again, Wright's path to touches is cloudy.

The Start is Tyrone Tracy Jr., at least in Week 6. Tracy's breakout game last week was made possible by Devin Singletary's groin injury, and those can linger. The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game in the league—151.4. Tracy's going to start Sunday night—and he's going to eat. 

The Hold is Tank Bigsby. One would think after he bulldozed the Colts last week in Jacksonville's first win of the year that Bigsby's share of the backfield work would spike. But I'll believe it when I see it—NFL teams do confusing things all the time. 

The Trade is Chase Brown—provided you can get anything for him. Barring an injury, the Cincinnati backfield has the makings of a muddied mess all year long. I'd as soon wash my hands of it. 

Matt Montgomery: Start Tank Bigsby. Travis Etienne Jr. fans have seen this coming from a mile away, but the usage hadn't quite reached DEFCON levels. Last week, Bigsby played more snaps than Etienne for the first time, and I believe this has signaled the shift in fantasy production. Bigsby not only has the snap counts, but he's a major “eye test” guy who pops off the screen with every touch, and Jacksonville is in a situation where they need all the help they can get on offense. Bigsby is a great rest-of-season and dynasty value currently.  

Hold Tyrone Tracy Jr.. This past week was a great game for Tracy, but I would still be wary of starting him this week. Singletary still controls this job when he is healthy, but that doesn't mean Tracy shouldn't be rostered or considered a flex play. Tracy has some upside here that was evident against a Seahawks defense that is susceptible to the run, but Singletary hasn't been a bad back this season, either. I think Tracy needs to replicate some high-level games a few more times before I consider starting him over some other options. 

Start Chase Brown. The Cincinnati Bengals have been dying for an explosive running back this season, and I believe Brown is finally the solution to that problem. While we haven't seen the snaps grow, I think the urgency that this week brings them in a primetime game will force some changes on both sides of the ball most notably a focus on trying to have more effectiveness in the run game on offense. Brown has seen his stats grow over the last two weeks and has shown us brief flashes in gameplay that no one can ignore and if I am a dynasty manager with Brown, he's almost always in my flex spot the rest of this season. 

Hold Jaylen Wright. This isn't an indictment on Wright but more on the Miami Dolphins. Wright is a highly explosive back who fits the Dolphins' peak perfectly. The issue is that we are nowhere near the peak and likely won't be until Tua returns or a move is made at the quarterback position. When we see players like Tyreek Hill get shut down, I am reticent to have faith in anyone on this offense until we see a dramatic change in either game plan or effectiveness.  

Jeff Bell: I'll start Chase Brown. This may be reading too much into the ankle injury that ended Zack Moss's Week 5 early, but Brown has looked explosive when given the opportunity, and Moss has looked like Moss. Now he's an injured Moss. Brown has been RB4 over the last two weeks, and I will be playing him until I can not.  

I'll hold Tank Bigsby. Could Travis Etienne Jr. be traded? Doug Pederson drafted Bigsby, but Etienne was Urban Meyer. Scheme fit is huge at every position, and Pederson loves Bigsby for his. Another win could quiet any thoughts on the Jaguars throwing in the towel and trading players. Still, a score of 1-5, especially considering Houston can be 5-1 by caring for New England, is a monumental hole.  

I'll cut Jaylen Wright purely for this exercise. After struggling to start, Wright looked much better, and De'Von Achane left Week 5 early. However, the Dolphins have a bye in Week 6, allowing Achane and Raheem Mostert to recover. The thesis behind Wright was that either back-missing time would make Wright relevant in fantasy. Both have missed time, and his best weekly finish was RB31.  

It is hard not to love what Tyrone Tracy Jr.. did in his first starting opportunity. But Devin Singletary will be back and has a special place in Brian Daboll's heart. The Giants' offense is worth buying into, but absent a long-term injury to Singletary, it is hard not to see this as a high-water mark for Tracy Jr.'s 2024 trade value. 

Waldman: I'll trade Bigsby because he's a complementary runner. That's something the numbers don't show. Bigsby will have 2-3 strong weeks ahead against defenses that are vulnerable between the tackles. Get rid of him soon unless you have a strong enough depth chart to wait until the end of the year when you can use him as a match-up option. 

I'll reluctantly cut Tracy, who looked good against Seattle this weekend, but the Seahawks' defense is bad. Devin Singletary practiced in a limited fashion this week and should be back from his groin injury either this week or next. Tracy surprised me with his patience with zone plays in Week 6, but I would like to see more against a defense that generates more penetration at the line of scrimmage than he saw on Sunday. You're not going to get much for Tracy in a re-draft format because Singletary is returning.

I'll hold Jaylen Wright because he has looked like a refined runner between the tackles, and Raheem Mostert is old and I wonder about De'Von Achane's durability--at least relative to the other backs on depth charts in this discussion. 

I'll start Chase Brown. He wasn't great against the Ravens, but he is involved in the receiving game, he's a big-play option, and there's a good schedule of teams after Week 8 where game scripts could be favorable for volume. 

Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:

• Start, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The RB Edition
• Bench, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The WR Edition
• For Real, Fool's Gold: The WR Edition
• October Rebound Candidates

Good luck!

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