Andy Dalton, Skylar Thompson, and Malik Willis are new starting quarterbacks -- at least for this year as substitutes for injured and benched options who began the year as starters. What do they have to offer fantasy GMs?
Welcome to Week 3 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- New Starting Quarterbacks (see below)
- NFL Storylines to Follow
- Analyzing the Rams Passing Game
- Analyzing the Chiefs Backfield
Let's roll.
New Starting Quarterbacks
Matt Waldman: Currently, Andy Dalton, Skylar Thompson, and Malik Willis are starting NFL quarterbacks. Which one offers the most fantasy upside while he's playing? Which has the highest fantasy floor? Which one offers the lowest fantasy ceiling?
Dan Hindery: Skylar Thompson has the most upside simply due to the offense he is playing in and the weapons at his disposal. The job description in Miami calls for getting the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane. It is unclear if Thompson can do so effectively, as evidenced by his career 57.1% completion percentage.
Andy Dalton has the highest floor of the trio. He is a proven low-level starting quarterback in the NFL. He simply does not have the weapons the other two quarterbacks on the list have.
Malik Willis has the rushing upside, but his passing ceiling is non-existent. He is averaging less than 100 passing yards per game in four career starts. He has also thrown just one touchdown in 106 career attempts.
Matt Montgomery: Andy Dalton provides us with both the most upside and the highest point floor in front of these quarterbacks. He is the best football player of this bunch and has the most in-game experience. Despite the playoff losses, he took a team to the playoffs 5 times, proving he could contribute in this league. He also supported many great fantasy seasons for players like A.J. Green, Marvin Jones Jr, and Tyler Boyd in the past, and has good weapons around him that will see an immediate boost in production.
Malik Willis has the lowest ceiling here, but it is carried by his ability to run the ball. Now that teams have this one game of tape to use, he will likely be a less-than-productive starter and depending on the severity of Love's injury, could even be replaced before the time comes for Love to return. I would avoid the Packers receiving options until Love returns and I wouldn't start Willis unless his matchup was against a bottom-tier defense.
Justin Howe: I won't be playing Andy Dalton. If I'm in a Superflex league that demands Andy Dalton in Week 3, I've probably already lost that league. He carries less weekly upside than just about any WR I might have on a roster.
Willis will offer some running potential, which does indeed sweeten his value. However, he'll also run an extremely stripped-down version of his offense, and I'm not sure there's enough passing opportunity to make any noise.
In Week 2, Willis completed 86% of his passes, threw a touchdown, ran the ball 6 times, and led a win over a semi-quality opponent. He scored only 13 standard-league points in the process. That was a game that went ideally for Matt LaFleur and the Packers, and it's what they'll be chasing while he's under center. There is no notable upside from even those modest numbers; I shudder to imagine Willis trying to keep pace in a shootout.
The last time we saw Thompson, he was averaging 5.0 yards per throw with a 56.9 rating as an emergency fill-in in 2022. I don't think he's improved much, but at least he'll throw to a pair of all-world receivers. There's theoretical rushing upside, too: Thompson ran for 1,087 yards and 26 touchdowns at Kansas State.
Andy Hicks: Skylar Thompson. Purely because he has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to pass to. With a great quartet of running backs.
Dalton and Willis strike me as better quarterbacks, but in situations that aren't going to be worth investing in from a fantasy perspective.
I think Jordan Love comes back sooner than expected and Dalton at age 36 is not the quarterback we saw with the Bengals half a decade ago. On a team bereft of confidence, he is a sugar hit at best. He does give us the highest floor given the ineptitude of Bryce Young. Willis might get another game where Josh Jacobs sees 100 carries, while Thompson has the weapons, he may not have the talent to get the ball in the right spots.
Phil Alexander: Reluctantly, Skylar Thompson is my pick for the highest upside and highest floor. In Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane (and even Jonnu Smith), he is surrounded by pass-catchers who can legitimately score from anywhere on the field. I don't trust Thompson to make the most of his weapons, but I do trust his weapons to float Thompson toward 200 passing yards and a touchdown or two when the matchup permits.
Dalton is a better quarterback than Thompson, even at his advanced age, but I still want nothing to do with this Panthers offense until we see some signs of life.
You can probably find a better non-quarterback to fill your super-flex position than Willis, who just had the best game of his life and failed to crack 13 fantasy points.
Jeff Bell: In a hypothetical world, Malik Willis would offer the highest ceiling, possessing a dual-threat skill set capable of rushing for over 100 yards. In a perfect world, Willis has a dual-threat skill set. We have no evidence he can pass at an NFL level. Judging by their game plan against the Colts, the Packers aren't going to try to find out.
My cop-out answer is that Andy Dalton in Green Bay or Miami has the highest upside. Unfortunately, for Dalton, Carolina's personnel is about as far away as you can get from Miami or Green Bay.
Thompson offers the highest upside. In an offense with Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle, all he needs to do is masquerade as a passable point guard and distribute, allowing those three to create. The Dolphins do not need Steph Curry; Seth Curry would do fine.
I like Dalton for the highest floor, assuming we can still access the Dalton that passed for over 350 yards in his one 2023 appearance. The Panthers made meaningful additions to their roster in the offseason. Players were open. Bryce Young would not throw the ball. Dalton has little to lose and plays like it when he can.
It feels strange to look at Willis and say he has the lowest ceiling. But things went about as well as they could for him against the Colts, and he finished QB20 with 13 points. At present, that feels as close to a ceiling as the Packers will let him get.
Waldman: I shared this in the Week 3 Storylines topic you can find it in the link at the end of the feature:
When Thompson started two years ago, he was not ready, the offensive line was not as strong, and the coaching staff used a far more conservative game plan because they hoped Tagovailoa would return soon and hoped to win some ugly squeakers.
To Thompson's credit, he had some underrated throws that his receivers dropped in big moments. You wonder if the spin of the ball as a right-handed passer is an adjustment for a receiving corps practicing daily with a lefty. You also wonder if this impacts play-calling and line play.
I used to hear this was a scenario of underrated difficulty back in the day with the 49ers when Steve Young subbed for Joe Montana.
When Thompson is comfortable, he's a more aggressive decision-maker than Tagovailoa. He has a better arm and a higher ceiling as a pocket manager. If Mike McDaniel believes he can use an aggressive gameplan with Thompson, this could become one of the most compelling developments of the season.
If there's concern, Tyler Huntley could see the field in 2-3 weeks and they're waiting on Tagovailoa.
After scouting for as long as I have, I've learned that the results from early playing time aren't an accurate indicator of who is good or bad at quarterback.
The odds are against Thompson developing into the player with the ceiling I saw in his scouting report. However, the two years of preparation behind the scenes and the stage he's assuming with the surrounding talent and coaching staff as his support makes him worth a cheap early-season addition to find out.
I'd take Thompson ahead of any Rams receiver. I'd prefer knowing that I'm returning to the well if Thompson flops than get mediocre production of highs, lows, and mids that make my decisions with whom to start at receiver.
Go for the upside and have a clear hole in your roster that you know you must fill rather than taking meh-level shots on known commodities. People think they know what Thompson is, but there's a bigger chance they are wrong about him than they are wrong about other players at different positions who aren't going to fill the hole in your lineup.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- New Starting Quarterbacks
- NFL Storylines to Follow
- Analyzing the Rams Passing Game
- Analyzing the Chiefs Backfield
Good luck!