Darnell Mooney, Allen Lazard, Alec Pierce, and Wan'Dale Robinson. Who will remain a fantasy starter? Who won't?
Welcome to Week 6 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Start, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The RB Edition
- Bench, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The WR Edition
- For Real, Fool's Gold: The WR Edition (see below)
- October Rebound Candidates
Let's roll.
For Real, Fool's Gold: WR Edition
Matt Waldman: Which receivers will remain starters in two-receiver formats? Which ones won't?
Where do you stand?
Sam Wagman: Darnell Mooney has proven himself a key piece of the Falcons' passing attack for Kirk Cousins. He has 30 targets in his past three games and gets targeted over and over in a passing offense modeled off a receiver-friendly scheme in Los Angeles, so it's very likely he continues to be prioritized.
Wan'Dale Robinson is the other half of a true two-man operation for the Giants this season. Between him and Malik Nabers, they are accounting for nearly 60% of the pass-catcher targets from Daniel Jones this season, and that's with Nabers missing a game in Week 5. That is staying power.
Allen Lazard is a polarizing figure. His efficiency is horrible, ranking 73rd in YPRR, 64th in Yards per Target, 92nd in separation, and only a 17.6% target share. Despite that, he is a borderline WR2 in fantasy points per game this season and gets peppered with high-value targets. Is it just the Aaron Rodgers connection? My worry: Davante Adams comes in and obliterates Lazard's target share.
Lastly, Pierce is the player I am least confident in on this list. He has done nearly 100% of his damage through the unsustainable deep targets he continues to get from the Indianapolis QBs, but eventually, teams will wise up to that play call and take it away.
Jeff Bell: Darnell Mooney has been excellent since a quiet Week 1, standing as the fantasy WR6 over the last four games. His deep speed is necessary when working in a rotation with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Ray-Ray McCloud III. Mooney is in the best opportunity of his career and paying off.
Wan'Dale Robinson emerged as the WR2, with Malik Nabers as the star. He is perfect for his role, allowing him to see heavy volume on safe targets. Darius Slayton rounds out the trio as a field stretcher, and his skillset, combined with Robinson's, allows Nabers to work all over the field. Robinson is a PPR-only play for me, but a cheat code in formats based on a whole point for receptions.
I like Alec Pierce quite a bit. The situation is frightening. Perhaps he is just Randy Moss, who will deliver a 65-yard touchdown weekly, but before his fourth-quarter explosion in Week 5, he was an afterthought behind Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and even Adonai Mitchell.
Given the boom/bust nature of Anthony Richardson's passing production, a legitimate argument can be made for Pierce as the guy to have, though much of his early production came without Downs. Pierce is a good NFL player, but these stories rarely play out to season-long fantasy relevance.
If Aaron Rodgers is playing GM, Davante Adams would be a Jet. Rodgers can play coy if he wants, but it would be surprising if he did not influence Robert Saleh's dismissal. They won't bench Garrett Wilson if Adams does happen and Mike Williams lurks. It makes Allen Lazard fool's gold.
Matt Montgomery: The three who are for real are Wan'Dale Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and Allen Lazard. The reasons vary but mostly boil down to the same thing: consistency at the quarterback position. '
With Mooney, we are seeing a version of Kirk Cousins that is truly raising the value of his entire offense, and it has been a magical year to watch. Robinson has been a target machine, giving him unique value even without explosive plays all over the field. He seems to be the safety valve for Daniel Jones in Brian Dabol's offense.
Lazard is a curious case for me, but Aaron Rodgers loves him, and by default that makes him a starting-caliber receiver because he is going to get chances and opportunities to produce in the game, therefore producing for your fantasy team.
I believe Pierce is a lesser version of DeSean Jackson and the fool's gold on the list. He has a cool trick for getting open downfield, but outside of the fluke vertical plays, he has been a very mediocre receiver on a team with talented receivers around him. He is the type of player who burns managers more than he helps them, and if you do get the explosive play, it only makes a significant difference if he takes it in for a touchdown. He is the least talented receiver on his team, and that isn't someone I would invest in in the long term.
Gary Davenport: In two-receiver leagues, the player I'd have the most confidence in has to be Darnell Mooney. Drake London leads the Falcons in targets with 44, but Mooney is right behind him—that's not a fluke. Come season's end, Mooney will be one of fantasy's biggest values at wideout.
Bump it out to three receivers, though, and Wan'Dale Robinson and Allen Lazard are squarely in the conversation. The former is taking advantage of all the defensive attention being paid to Malik Nabers. Barring the arrival of Davante Adams in New York, Lazard appears relatively entrenched as New York's No. 2 receiver—his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers is paying off.
Waldman: But, Gary...
Davenport: Yeah, they're fool's gold in two-receiver leagues.
Waldman: Thank you.
Davenport: Alec Pierce may well prove me wrong, but with Anthony Richardson under center and Josh Downs healthy again, he's more boom/bust bye-week fill-in than a weekly starter.
Phil Alexander: Darnell Mooney is for real. Kirk Cousins is throwing more to his wide receivers and less to his tight ends and running backs than I was counting on in the preseason. And to Mooney's credit, he's earned his 24% team target share by getting open on all levels and adding value after the catch. His eight catches of 20-plus yards are tied with fantasy stalwarts Nico Collins, Jayden Reed, and Justin Jefferson for the league lead.
Allen Lazard is fool's gold. While his top-40 numbers have been a pleasant surprise to this point, I don't see the current version of Aaron Rodgers supporting multiple starting wide receivers. And if he does, the second receiver's name will eventually be Mike Williams or Davante Adams.
Wan'Dale Robinson and Alec Pierce fall somewhere in between for opposing reasons. We have every reason to believe Robinson will continue the low-calorie PPR scam he's been running, but those types of players are overrated (even in PPR leagues) for the lack of ceiling they provide.
Pierce, on the other hand, is all ceiling. He leads the league in catches of 40-plus and 50-plus yards. Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco can each support what Pierce has done best, but it's impossible to know which weeks those long plays are coming. They're both worth keeping on your bench with bye weeks here and injuries piling up.
Jason Wood: Darnell Mooney is pure 24-carat fantasy gold, and barring injury, he should be in lineups of any size. Drake London leads the Falcons with 44 targets, 354 yards, and three touchdowns, but Mooney is close behind with 40 targets, 330 yards, and three touchdowns. Kirk Cousins has built rapport with the entire Falcons receiving corps, and it's clear that he doesn't feel the need to funnel throws to London at Mooney's expense.
I'm less optimistic about Wan'Dale Robinson as an every-week fantasy option, but he's the clear-cut No. 2 among this group. He's a Danny Amendola-type, averaging fewer than eight yards per catch, but Daniel Jones is targeting him at a high rate, even with Malik Nabers commanding over 30% of the team's targets.
Allen Lazard (WR29) and Alec Pierce (WR30) are both fool's gold. Pierce has three touchdowns on just 13 receptions, and his unsustainable 28.3 yards per reception is cause for concern. More worrying is that Anthony Richardson is struggling to complete 50% of his passes, and Coach Shane Steichen seems reluctant to let him throw more than 20-25 times per game. However, if Joe Flacco ends up playing a significant portion of the season, Pierce's fantasy value could stabilize.
Lazard's fate hinges on whether the Jets successfully acquire Davante Adams. If Adams joins the team, he'll immediately command 150+ targets. Adams and Garrett Wilson would dominate the target share, making players like Mike Williams and Lazard forgettable fantasy assets. If the Jets don't land Adams, Aaron Rodgers is likely to continue favoring Lazard more than he should, keeping Lazard as a low-end WR3 in fantasy.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Start, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The RB Edition
- Bench, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The WR Edition
- For Real, Fool's Gold: The WR Edition
- October Rebound Candidates
Good luck!