Derrick Henry was considered "washed up" at this point last year -- or on his way to that cliff by year's end -- because the public conflated bad offensive line play with a perceived loss of athletic ability with Henry's game. It made Henry a good example of a "dented can," in dynasty leagues who could be had at a discount.
Welcome to Week 5 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Running Back Rank'em
- Dynasty Values of Great But Aging Players (see below)
- What to Do with the Dolphins WRs?
- Waiver-Wire Strategy
Let's roll.
Dented Can Dynasty Values
Matt Waldman: Adam Harstad introduced the term Dented Can on our Film and Theory podcast last year. It's a player who the market perceives as lost value that may never gain or return to form but has an above-average chance of proving the market wrong.
Last year, Derrick Henry, who was considered "washed up" or soon to be that way because the public conflated bad line play with potential loss of athletic ability was a good example of a dented can where you got him at a discount.
Name some dented can values for our audience.
Corey Spala: Cooper Kupp is expected to miss his third straight game due to his ankle injury. Additionally, he will turn 32 in June 2025. The perceived notion of being injury-prone and hitting an age cliff will offer value in 2025 leagues.
I previously did a study and found we should not worry about an ‘elite’ wide receiver declining until age 35.80, so long as they do not retire or have a season-ending injury. Kupp is under contract through the 2026 season.
George Kittle will be turning 32 in under one week. Travis Kelce and his perceived decline may linger throughout the 2025 offseason regarding Kittle. It is feasible your league mates may not want the hassle of investing a top pick into a potential declining tight end.
I have an unreleased article derived from the above wide receiver study for tight ends. I found the age to be concerned is 33.5; with 73% of the sample having their decline after age 33 and 55% after age 34. I believe Kittle has the motivation and ambition to continue competing with San Francisco. Kittle is under contract through the 2025 season.
Dan Hindery: I avoided drafting Travis Kelce this offseason due to concerns about age-related decline and increased target competition. It seemed likely that the Chiefs would limit his snaps during the regular season to keep him fresh for a deep playoff run.
With the addition of talented receivers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, plus expectations of a second-year leap from Rashee Rice, the situation looked crowded. However, with Brown out for the season and Rice also at risk of missing the remainder of the year, Kelce now stands as one of the top tight-end options moving forward.
T.J. Hockenson has largely been overlooked since starting the season on the PUP list, but he’s a player worth targeting for several reasons. First, the tight-end position has been a fantasy wasteland this season.
Only two tight ends—George Kittle and Dallas Goedert—average more than 11 fantasy points per game. In the past seven seasons, we’ve never seen fewer than seven tight ends reach that mark by this point in the year. This decline in production is unprecedented.
Second, the concerns that Sam Darnold would limit the fantasy upside of the Vikings' offense have been proven unfounded. Darnold currently leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and the Vikings' passing attack looks like one of the league's best.
Ryan Weisse: I agree Kelce is a dented can. It has been a rough 2024, and he looks noticeably old and out of shape. As an old, out-of-shape guy, I'm allowed to say that. However, as the Chiefs continue to lose weapons on offense, it seems a bounce-back is in the cards.
The current fantasy tight-end landscape also means it won't take much for Kelce to regain his number-one spot for this season. Right now, Dallas Goedert is the No.1 tight end with 24 more fantasy points than Kelce. Goedert was buoyed by a Week 3 performance against the New Orleans Saints.
Guess who Kelce plays in Week 5? He might not make up all 24 points this week, but I won't be surprised if he cuts the deficit in half after his first game without Rashee Rice.
If Austin Ekeler hadn't missed Week 4, I wouldn't even have been able to include him here. However, even after three strong games to open the season, I don't think the market is on to Ekeler yet. Buy him while you can.
This Washington offense is far better than most expected, and they are running a system where two running backs can be successful. Ekeler was averaging three catches and 40 receiving yards per game over the first three weeks.
He also found the endzone running the ball despite only 13 rushes. He doesn't have the overall RB1 upside he once possessed, but in PPR formats, he can be a set-it-and-forget-it RB2 once he comes back from this concussion.
Justin Howe: Terry McLaurin was largely left for dead by the fantasy community. As the Washington offense cratered from 2021-2023, so did McLaurin’s ADP, which fell from 15th to 22nd to 31st this year. He’s come through as the alpha for Jayden Daniels’ attack, with 24 looks over the last 3 weeks, good for 29% of the team’s targets. McLaurin looks poised to finish top-20 with ease, and for once, that will provide his drafters with value to spare.
On the topic of twenty-something wideouts at a career crossroads: raise your hand if you had Diontae Johnson outperforming Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and all of the Bears wideouts through the first month!
Much of the fantasy world, myself included, balked at Johnson after (a) he spent much of 2023 dropping shaky passes in Pittsburgh and (b) he signed on to play in The Land of Wind and Ghosts in the offseason. But new coach Dave Canales wasn’t kidding in July when he described his ideal Panthers offense as “Where is Diontae Johnson at?”
Johnson has commanded 30% of team targets thus far. And with a competent passer under center, he has produced, posting 8-122-1 and 7-83-1 with Andy Dalton. There’s suddenly (some) production to be had in Carolina, and virtually all of it goes to Johnson by default.
Joseph Haggan: Johnson seems to have rejuvenated his career since being "dented" in Pittsburgh. Johnson fell out of favor in Pittsburgh after he experienced issues with drops. He was great at creating separation, just not completing the catch.
It looked much the same in 2024, and his career looked to be on a downward spiral. Enter Andy Dalton. Johnson's next paycheck should go to Dalton because he has made the man relevant again.
Johnson had 12 targets, 5 receptions, and 34 receiving yards in the first two games. Johnson has 27 targets, 15 receptions, 205 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns with Dalton. Dalton has popped the dent out.
Waldman: My only concern about you guys listing Johnson and to some extent, McLaurin is that they WERE dented cans, but they are no longer dented cans. Perhaps that perception is still lagging in dynasty formats, so I can see the value of mentioning them.
Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Running Back Rank'em
- Dynasty Values of Great But Aging Players
- What to Do with the Dolphins WRs?
- Waiver-Wire Strategy
Good luck!