The Rams lost Puka Nacua in Week 1. They lost Cooper Kupp in Week 2. There are at least 4 to 6 weeks where L.A.'s receiving corps fantasy value is up for grabs. It's time to assess the fallout.
Welcome to Week 3 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- New Starting Quarterbacks
- NFL Storylines to Follow
- Analyzing the Rams Passing Game (see below)
- Analyzing the Chiefs Backfield
Let's roll.
Analyzing the Rams Passing Game
Matt Waldman: Puka Nacua is on IR and Cooper Kupp could be soon to follow. At the very least, he's out for multiple weeks.
What is the fantasy pecking order of the Rams' passing game while this duo is gone? How many of them have weekly starter value? If they don't, what kind of fantasy value do they have in a 12-team league that starts 3-4 WRs and 1 TE?
Jeff Bell: A valuable fantasy lesson serving as an answer to this question about value in the Rams' passing game can be, “The answer is none.” We want to find where the production will go, but as any Carolina Panthers fan painfully knows, sometimes there is no production. It is hard for production that does not exist to go anywhere.
Demarcus Robinson was one of my favorite preseason values. But that was a version of Robinson that defenses would forget about and create splash plays as the focus landed on Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams. The most important two of those three options are gone for the immediate future.
Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Johnson will cycle through snaps with Robinson. The team will also likely play Davis Allen and Hunter Long with Colby Parkinson in two tight end sets more often than we know a Sean McVay offense. Robinson and Atwell have the big play ability to splash in any week, but their coverages will look much different. Whittington has attractive PPR potential. He is best suited to work in the quick game where Kupp and Nacua make hay.
The offensive line is as concerning and is an area we often forget about. The Rams are down both starting tackles and their best interior lineman, Steve Avila. They are also breaking in a rookie center in Beaux Limmer.
When the Rams take on the 49ers in Week 3, Matthew Stafford will be the only starter from the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl champion roster who plays. That game was 947 days ago. As a pending free agent, the more interesting question may be how many more games Stafford has left in a Rams uniform.
Contract negotiations this summer were a bit icy, with the team recognizing its rebuilding window and hesitant to commit to a 36-year-old quarterback. In the end, Stafford pushed future guaranteed money forward to potentially hit free agency following the 2024 season.
In a league with more questions than answers at the quarterback position, a 0-3 team decimated by injury may be ready to call a spade a spade and look to recoup the draft capital they gave up to complete the victorious Super Bowl run. Stafford could be in a Miami Dolphins lineup before he's back in your fantasy football lineup.
Phil Alexander: Until we see otherwise, we should assume Demarcus Robinson is the highest option in the target pecking order in LA. As Jeff alluded to, he's a limited receiver who has his work cut out for him without Kupp and Nacua there to command defensive attention.
Some folks are still leaving the light on for Tyler Johnson. I'm not one of them. It's his fifth NFL season, and he's yet to crack a starting rotation. Tutu Atwell has big-play ability, but similar to Robinson, he's not scaring enemy defenses on his own.
Jordan Whittington is the one I'm trying to sneak onto my rosters with a low waiver bid. Matthew Stafford has to get the ball out quickly behind a makeshift offensive line. Look for Sean McVay to dial up a bunch of short passes to Whittington out of the slot. If training camp and the preseason were any indication, the rookie possesses more speed, agility, and route-running chops to rack up yards after the catch than many scouts gave him credit for during the pre-draft process.
Until we see how things play out, Robinson is the only Rams receiver I'm starting as a WR3 or flex in 12-team leagues. The vacated targets have to go somewhere. But Whittington is the potential difference-maker of this group, making him a priority bench stash.
Andy Hicks: The Rams were supposed to implode last year, but a surprise 10-7 record led them to the playoffs. Nice. The implosion is almost certain to happen this year.
Without Nacua and Kupp, there are no quality starters on this unit. Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson aren't leading anyone to a fantasy championship. Neither is Tutu Atwell or any other receiver.
If any of the reserves deliver a good game in the box score, let someone else grab them off the waiver wire. Sean McVay has surprised us before, so if you have room on your roster for a week or two, why not make a dart throw? Still, call yourself an optimist short-term while maintaining a realistic perspective long-term.
As Jeff alluded to, if the Rams can get something of value for Matthew Stafford through a trade, they should take it.
Justin Howe: Bell's overall point is crucial. I want to expand on it.
Ask those with Diontae Johnson (22% of the Panthers' targets) or Zamir White (67% of the Raiders rushes) how much they've benefited from that consistent volume.
Bye weeks are approaching, and injuries are piling up everywhere. There will be occasional room for Demarcus Robinson in a 3-WR or 4-WR lineup at some point in the future, and Robinson is capable of erupting.
He saw heavy usage from Weeks 13-17 last season, averaging 4 catches and 64 yards (with 4 touchdowns) on a healthy 20% target share. There's value in adding and potentially playing Robinson if/when needed. The folly would be in (a) projecting more than that 20% share or (b) assuming this stripped-down attack will even be worthwhile for fantasy purposes. Remember that Robinson's 2023 mini-eruption came as the clear third option to Kupp and Nacua; that came with a lot of friendly coverage.
Ask Jeff Bell: 20% of garbage will remain garbage, and that's what this passing game looks like right now.
Matt Montgomery: Call me crazy, but I think it will be a next-man-up mentality for this team, and most of the players there currently will be rosterable and even startable in some matchups. Matthew Stafford did a lot with a little in Detroit and consistently had 4,000 passing with what we could consider less explosive weapons and offensive schemes.
The immediate beneficiary though will be Demarcus Robinson who was already a viable option to play in lineups weekly, but there is admittedly a risk now that he will be the pseudo number one receiver and likely draws a more difficult corner matchup. Sean McVay may change the number of times they throw, which can hinder stats for these guys, but I don't think we need to be worried that they won't be able to contribute.
Dan Hindery: Demarcus Robinson is the safest bet for fantasy production. He was solid down the stretch last season, averaging 4.2 catches for 63.8 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game over five weeks from Week 13 through Week 17. He profiles as a low-end WR3 option for as long as Kupp is out.
Colby Parkinson should put up Top-15 tight-end production, but it will be tough to trust from week to week. He is only interesting because the bar for useful tight-end production is incredibly low in 2024.
Tyler Johnson and Tutu Atwell should be involved, but not consistently enough to have fantasy value.
The Rams pass catcher with the most upside is rookie Jordan Whittington. His game is similar to Puka Nacua's, and we saw him play a high-volume role in the preseason. He played 50% of the snaps in Week 2 and could emerge as the player for whom Sean McVay decides to manufacture touches. Unless you need the safer WR3 floor Robinson provides, Whittington is the player to target.
Waldman: I like Matt's point about Stafford doing well with second and third-tier receiving corps in Detroit and an offensive line that was nowhere near the quality Jared Goff has. To add to his argument, the Rams fell behind Arizona so early and by a large margin that the defense dictated the terms.
In Detroit, Stafford still delivered a 300-yard week despite losing Nacua at halftime. Most offenses in the league got off to slow starts thanks to what defenses have been doing to limit NFL passing games and the post-CBA training camp dynamics. The past two weeks aren't suitable data to base the Rams' season.
However, the remaining corps are limited talents who can't offer match-up advantages one-on-one with top cornerbacks with nearly the same range as Kupp and Nacua. Stafford remains a viable option for consideration because he could earn starter weeks just by spreading the wealth to generate production volume, but he's not a priority every-week option.
Robinson is the best one-on-one talent, but he's a notch or two below Kupp and Nacua. The rest have specific skills that are easier to leverage when true starters are playing with them in the lineup.
Jeff's concerns about the offensive line worry me. While I'd take cheap shots on Whittington, Atwell, Robinson, and Johnson, they'd enter as guys in those revolving door slots of my roster. As Andy said, replace them quickly if they don't work out.
Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- New Starting Quarterbacks
- NFL Storylines to Follow
- Analyzing the Rams Passing Game
- Analyzing the Chiefs Backfield
Good luck!