The leader of the Chiefs backfield was a viable fantasy asset with Isaiah Pacheco as the starter. Without Pacheco, we have a lot more unknowns. It's time to assess the fallout.
Welcome to Week 3 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- New Starting Quarterbacks
- NFL Storylines to Follow
- Analyzing the Rams Passing Game
- Analyzing the Chiefs Backfield (see below)
Let's roll.
Analyzing the Chiefs Backfield
Matt Waldman: Tell us what you think will happen with the Kansas City backfield and provide actional fantasy recommendations.
Jeff Bell: Carson Steele provides the highest upside. Samaje Perine delivers the most immediate utility but is a full PPR play. Andy Reid has been high on the rookie Steele; he can add a physical presence to the run game, but he must prove that he can stay on the field in pass protection.
Steele has the best chance to claim an every-down role, especially getting goal-line work. The team lacks a dynamic backfield option and will likely need to take a pass-heavy approach in the short term.
Kareem Hunt was the first outside name mentioned. He understands the technical aspects of the position and has experience in the offense. Keaontay Ingram is a Matt Waldman Favorite and may have the group's most rounded three-down skillset.
While Hunt is the "outsider" of the group with the most compelling track record, his uninspiring performance in Cleveland last year leaves us with questions about how much he has left. Ingram is the more compelling "outside" of the group if counting that Ingram wasn't a part of the active roster until this week.
The rookie Emani Bailey is a deep-cut wild card shocker, but I do not see that one coming to fruition. Steele and Perine are the priority waiver adds.
Steele is the priority waiver. I would spend 15%-20% of my budget. He has the best chance to become fantasy-relevant in shallow leagues.
Perine is a secondary target, and I would recommend spending 7%. In full PPR scoring, Perine has more value. Hunt and Ingram are players I'd wait to consider when you can acquire players at no cost.
Phil Alexander: Samaje Perine has a better chance of developing into a reliable fantasy starter than Carson Steele or Kareem Hunt. Before Pacheco's injury, Steele got short yardage and goal-line carries against the Bengals. After Pacheco left the game, Steele stepped in on early downs.
While Andy Reid may have tipped his hand in favor of Steele with this usage, it's important to remember Perine only joined the team about two weeks ago. Steele also fumbled in his limited Week 2 action, which could have reminded the coaching staff they shouldn't put too much on the plate of an undrafted rookie free agent who is probably better suited to play fullback.
Perine isn't explosive and lacks the lure of the unknown Steele brings to the table, but our buddy Joey Wright would like to remind you the veteran has been efficient in his career when trusted with increased workloads. Assuming he gains more of the work on base downs while maintaining his role on passing downs, Perine's role is more valuable than Steele's, even if the latter hogs goal-line opportunities.
Kansas City's running backs scored 18 rushing touchdowns across the last two seasons combined. Jerick McKinnon, whose function in the offense now belongs to Perine, caught 13 touchdowns by himself over the same span.
The best part is you can probably land Perine with a lower waiver bid than it will take to get Steele. I would be fine spending up to 15% of my waiver budget on either back, which is likely enough to land Perine but lose out on Steele. Hunt is a wildcard, but I'm confident he's in decline, and the league agreed by freezing him out during free agency. Let's see him activated from the practice squad before we worry about how he factors into the Chiefs' plans.
Andy Hicks: With the time Pacheco will miss, this is likely a situation where multiple players are going to be needed to help the team. If you have the roster space you can take a gamble that one or two of these guys gains traction and can contribute to fantasy rosters. Until Pacheco was trusted with a significant role, the Chiefs backfield had always been one of the least productive units.
Samaje Perine is the most likely to get a significant share. He is likely to be trusted with the receiving role and short-yardage situations.
Carson Steele saw the carries in the absence of Pacheco, but a key fumble will not help his cause. He is likely to be the top target on waiver wires. He is likely to be a disappointment to those pinning their hopes on him.
The Practice squad players are interesting. Kareem Hunt looked washed up and left the Chiefs awkwardly before. His form had declined with the Browns noticeably and seems a desperation play with name recognition only Keontay Ingram has had moments in the NFL with the Cardinals and was on the Chiefs practice squad for the Super Bowl. He can contribute, but Steele would be preferred over him.
Emani Bailey is interesting. His test scores during the combine were among the worst ever seen at the position. But he played well at TCU, averaging 5.4 yards a carry. He would be my speculative longshot, but unless he had an injury during testing, he is likely to remain in the practice squad barring further injury.
Outside these guys, Jerick McKinnon seems the obvious player to bring back, depending on conditioning.
Justin Howe: The easy answer for fantasy GMs is to acquire Steele, who will take over interior and short-yardage work, and maybe even catch a few balls. He’s the one I’m more likely to claim. But I think it’s unlikely the team will just hand Pacheco’s entire role to the undrafted rookie.
The team has cast its veteran free agent lot with Hunt as the long-term, break-the-glass emergency if its initial plan with Steele, Perine, and maybe, Ingram or Bailey doesn't work out.
Any newly viable Chief will draw waiver/trade attention. The question is how much, and how overinflated it will be next to their true value. The dirty truth is that the Chiefs haven’t produced many fantasy juggernauts of late.
This is a ball-control team that wins with two key elements: splash plays from an aggressive defense, and well-timed heroics from Patrick Mahomes II. Those heroics tend to come through the air, and they aren’t particularly easy to predict.
Don’t bid heavily on any of these guys. But bid modestly for Steele, who at least boasts the potential of the unknown.
Matt Montgomery: I believe the safest option post-Pacheco in the Kansas City backfield is Samaje Perine. Perine has shown us an ability to contribute in fantasy scenarios in years past, and I believe the Chiefs are a team that values his pass-catching ability over the “running” ability that someone like Carson Steele would provide.
They also won't want to rely on a younger player like Steele with that heavy of a load alone, which is why we are seeing them make moves such as Kareem Hunt to the practice squad and Keaontay Ingram. Perine is the man here to have until we are shown something definitive, which may take a few weeks.
Dan Hindery: Carson Steele is in the pole position for the lead role. He is my top waiver wire target from this group, but I don't recommend spending a big chunk of your budget on him.
Samaje Perine has the potential to emerge as the top fantasy performer of this group eventually, but his upside feels even more limited. The best-case scenario for Perine is becoming a weekly flex option.
Keaontay Ingram is the name to watch and the cheapest addition. If you have the roster space, he is the longshot upside play.
Both Steele and Perine are plodders with speed in the 4.7 range. Ingram is the athlete of the group, with a strong Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 8.67. He impressed me as a freshman at Texas but was slowed by several injuries throughout his college career. He is a player whom I have been monitoring for years, and it would not be a total shock to see him run with this opportunity once he gets up to speed.
Waldman: I like what everyone had to say. Compelling points from various perspectives. Here are my quick thoughts:
- This will be a committee.
- Steele runs hard, but I'm not convinced he's ready to become more than a situational option.
- Perine is the long bet to lead this backfield because of his passing-down chops and short-yardage skill.
- Steele will get a shot to prove he can hand more early while Perine is learning the playbook he just got a few weeks ago.
- It's established that Ingram was a fave late-round prospect of mine based on his talent. He reminded me stylistically of Hunt.
- Ingram either didn't make the active roster because he didn't get enough reps to compete or he didn't impress. He hasn't done enough to impress in the NFL so far--injuries or not. I like Dan's take on him.
- Hunt, as Justin mentioned, is the veteran who will get time to learn the offense and be their reliable, assignment-sound insurance policy if multiple injuries strike or the rest of the group falters.
- My colleague Dan Hatman who heads the Scouting Academy and was a former NFL scout with the Eagles and Giants, told me this spring that he liked how Bailey processed the game and found him intriguing.
I'd bid on Perine and envision him having Darrel Williams' role in 2021 where he was RB22 in fantasy that year. Ingram is worth monitoring for large-roster formats, especially dynasty leagues and you can get him a little cost for the end of your roster.
I have Hunt in a few dynasty formats where I had room to hang onto him and maintain a competitive team. He's not a priority addition but could surprise if called upon because he'll get the Chiefs what they expect from a play.
If you want Steele, understand it's more likely that he and Perine split red-zone duties so he's probably overpriced at this point. That could change as the season unfolds, especially if Steele doesn't live up to fantasy expectations in the next 3-4 weeks and then he's forced back into a bigger role if an injury occurs. At that point, he could be had at a cheaper price after fantasy GMs waive him en masse.
Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- New Starting Quarterbacks
- NFL Storylines to Follow
- Analyzing the Rams Passing Game
- Analyzing the Chiefs Backfield
Good luck!