Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
Week 15 has arrived, and with it (in most leagues) came the fantasy playoffs. For those teams fortunate enough to be playing on, losing is no longer an option. Anything short of victory will end the season. The flip side of that, of course, is that peeling off a few more wins could mean a fantasy championship.
It's nothing but extremes now. Despair or glory.
With Harris and Davenport, it should take about four seconds to figure out which one is which.
Point-arizing, Part 1
As you may have heard, the fantasy playoffs are underway in most leagues. Right now, fantasy managers need one thing—points. So, we're point-arizing this week's Polarizing Players. Pick one quarterback outside the top 15 in Footballguys Week 15 rankings who will crack the top 10.
And one ranked inside the top eight who will not.
Harris: Chicago's Caleb Williams currently sits as QB21 in our rankings as the Bears prepare to take on the division-rival Vikings in Minnesota. I get the concerns. Things didn't go all that well in San Francisco last week, as the rookie signal-caller was held to 16.1 fantasy points. Still, he was QB11 on the week.
In the three games before that, coinciding with Thomas Brown taking over for Shane Waldron as Chicago's play-caller, Williams QB4 averaged 22.4 points per game. Factoring in his lower-end outing in San Francisco, Williams is QB7 over the last four games, averaging 20.8 points per game. I realize Minnesota has been a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position this season. Only three enemy field generals have scored 20 or more points against them all season.
One of them was Williams in Week 12. The youngster threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns in that one. He was QB4 that week with 24.9 fantasy points. Was that a fluke? Not in the context of his ongoing four-game run. But also, if I'm looking for QBs who might outperform their ranking in a given matchup, why not go with one who did it against the same opponent two weeks ago?
As for the top-eight quarterback most likely to not be in the top 10?
You must not bench Jalen Hurts, but you should set reasonable expectations. Remember, only one quarterback (Cincinnati's Joe Burrow) has scored 20-plus fantasy points against Pittsburgh's defense. Three others went over 15 points. That's it. In addition, as ESPN's Tristan Cockroft points out, they've faced four of the league's top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points scored on rushing plays -- Hurts leads that list -- and limited that group to 9.3 points per game (although that includes Anthony Richardson, who left the team's Week 4 matchup early due to injury).
One more time: You should not be benching Hurts. But you should be aware this is a challenging matchup.
Davenport: Hurts and Lamar Jackson are my two starters in Deathmatch—and yes, they cost me my first two picks. I'll confess the Steelers make me nervous. There's no margin for error in that league (as Harris, a former champion, knows all too well). If Hurts flops, that might cook me.
The 2024 season hasn't quite gone according to plan for the Miami Dolphins or quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and even though the Dolphins are winning now, the explosive downfield passing plays that were so common last year have all but evaporated. However, Tagovailoa has done an excellent job of taking what defenses give him, and over the past month, only Buffalo's Josh Allen has more fantasy points among quarterbacks. Weather won't be a factor for Tagovailoa this week, either—last I looked, the Texans play indoors like civilized people.
I was totally going to list Brock Purdy of the 49ers here, because hindsight. But since no one believes I can see the future (bunch of party-poopers, the lot of you), my reluctance will pass to Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings. Yes. Darnold was fantastic last week, setting a franchise record for passer rating. He also fared pretty well in Minnesota's last meeting with the Bears—330 passing yards and two scores. But the Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the NFC to quarterbacks this season, and a letdown week at the worst possible time would be just about the most Sam Darnold thing ever.
On the Run
Exactly no one expected Zach Charbonnet of the Seahawks, Isaac Guerendo of the 49ers, and Rachaad White of the Buccaneers to be the top three PPR running backs of Week 14.
Who will be this week's Iszachaad Charbuerendowhite? What big name is barreling toward a season-killing flop?
Harris: This week's surprise running back will be Denver's Jaleel McLaughlin. Yes, I wrote that with a far more confident tone than I felt. Could Javonte Williams end up dominating the workload here? Could we get another Audric Estime spike week? The truth is, none of us -- including McLaughlin, Williams, and Estime know. I'm not sure the guy who decides, Sean Payton, knows. But over the last two games, McLaughlin has been the most productive back on the roster, and it seems like the reports this summer suggesting that Payton was all about getting the ball in the speedy McLaughlin's hands are starting to play out when we need it most.
Assuming I get my way, and McLaughlin gets a reasonable workload, he's in prime position to cash in on it against a Colts defense that's been among the most generous to opposing running backs this season -- including giving up a whopping 30.1 fantasy points per game to the position over the last four games.
While we're in Denver, let's go with Jonathan Taylor taking that dive you're looking for. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out this week, since Anthony Richardson returned as the starting quarterback, Taylor's usage near the goal line and in the passing game has fallen off drastically. As a result, he ranks last among qualified running backs in fantasy points per touch. With coaches and Richardson embracing the QB's physical running style in scoring situations, Taylor's getting just 38 percent of the team's goal-line carries. His target share over that span is 3.9 percent. Also, Denver has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position over the last month.
Davenport: Ouch. I knew things were bad with Taylor. But those stats hurt my feelings. Just—oof.
This may be the final vestiges of hope draining from a longtime Cleveland fan's psyche, but Nick Chubb at the Browns at RB36 feels low—even in the single worst fantasy matchup for running backs. The Browns can move the ball with Jameis Winston under center, even if there's some uncertainty about which direction it will go. If Cleveland gets in close, Chubb will get the ball. And last week against the Steelers, Chubb actually looked somewhat like himself, averaging a season-high 4.4 yards per carry.
I'll go one spot lower than the inestimable Mr. Harris for my disappointing running back—to Rachaad White of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at RB19. This is a running back that many fantasy pundits spent most of the summer pointing out reasons not to like. He's an average talent. And even if Bucky Irving doesn't play, White still faces a bad matchup—the Chargers have given up the seventh-fewest PPR points to running backs this year. Frankly, the entire Tampa offense gives me pause in Week 15—that up-and-down team is due for a clunker at the worst possible time.
Chase-ing Greatness
Fantasy managers who drafted Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase in 2024 are more likely than not still playing. But not all can be so fortunate as to enjoy those 40-point weeks.
Give folks fighting to play on one wide receiver ranked outside the top 25 set to rack up catches in Week 15—and one inside the top 12 who makes you anxious.
Harris: I'm always chasing volume at running back. Why not at wide receiver? In the six games since Jameis Winston took over as the starting quarterback in Cleveland, the Browns have thrown the ball over 40 times five times. Over that span, Jerry Jeudy, WR29 on this week's consensus rankings, averaged nine targets per game. Better still, the speedy wideout has made the most of his opportunities, averaging six catches, 103 yards, and 20.6 fantasy points per game. He's WR6 over that stretch. This week, Cleveland takes on a Kanas City pass defense that's allowed the second-most receiving yards to receivers since Week 10.
After Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown has been the Eagles' top offensive player with four games of 100-plus receiving yards. But he's only averaged 5.9 targets per game over the past eight weeks. Last week, against the Panthers, Brown wasn't targeted until the waning moments of the second quarter. His frustration late in the game and immediately after was apparent. On one hand, it's reasonable to believe coordinator Kellen Moore and Hurts will put more effort into including their star wideout.
On the other hand, Brown will be going up against Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. ESPN's Mike Clay notes that Drake London, Courtland Sutton, CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, and Tee Higgins all had 13 points or fewer when Porter shadowed them. Beyond that, the Steelers have allowed the sixth-fewest WR fantasy points, and they're tied for the fourth-fewest touchdowns allowed to the position. Brown faces a battle to match his WR10 ranking this week.
Davenport: After the likes of Cooper Kupp of the Rams and Jauan Jennings of the 49ers laid an egg in that miserable excuse for a Thursday night game, the number of fantasy managers who need a spike week from a wideout has grown exponentially.
We have already seen such a performance from Keenan Allen of the Chicago Bears against the rival Vikings this season—Allen caught nine of 15 targets for 86 yards and a score against Minnesota the last time these teams met. Harris has already signed on to Caleb Williams, exceeding expectations in Week 15. If he does, it stands to reason that Allen will benefit.
Since I can't just agree with a smarter analyst than I about Brown (I could, but it wouldn't be especially helpful) and I can't retroactively pull Jennings and Kupp from my lineup (sigh), my wide receiver of doom will be rookie Brian Thomas Jr.. of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Thomas has certainly had his moments in 2024, but he faces a Jets team surrendering the fewest PPR points to wideouts this season with Mac "It's Not Unusual" Jones at quarterback.
That couldn't be helped.
Keeping it Tight
There really ain't much witty to say about tight ends this season—two are averaging 15 PPR points a game, and it's not the two we thought would lead the pack in August.
For those unfortunate souls without the benefit of George Kittle of the 49ers or Brock Bowers of the Raiders, who is the best streaming play of Week 15? Which high-end tight end is the biggest risk to disappoint at the worst possible time?
Harris: Cowboys' tight end Jake Ferguson returned from a two-game, concussion-related absence Monday night. He failed to fully exploit a great matchup against the Bengals, catching three passes for 32 yards. This week, he gets a better matchup against the Panthers, and I expect bigger things. As SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes, no team in the league has allowed more fantasy points to tight ends on the season, and only one has given up more since Week 7. On the season, Carolina has given up 10 or more points to the position nine times, including five who have hit that total since Week 8. They've also allowed the most touchdown passes to tight ends (10) this season. It's time for Ferguson, TE15 on this week's consensus rankings, to hit stride.
In the three games Mike Evans was sidelined by a hamstring injury, Cade Otton drew a 25 percent target share. Otton's target share has fallen to 15 percent in the three games since Evans returned. This week, he faces a Chargers defense that's only allowed four tight ends all season to reach double-digit fantasy points. A diminishing role and a tough matchup will make it difficult for Otton to play up to his TE8 ranking.
Davenport: Can you even call a tight end who hasn't had two catches or 15 receiving yards in a game the past three weeks a streaming option? Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons has been invisible. Casper's jealous of his fantasy translucence. But the Las Vegas Raiders rank near the top of the NFL in PPR points surrendered to tight ends, and blowing up on fantasy benches would be a fitting capper to 2024 for the fourth-year pro.
Funny what desperation does to the mind.
Hunter Henry of the New England Patriots is probably the most reliable passing-game weapon the Patriots have, which is a bit like being the best '73 Pinto. The Arizona Cardinals have admittedly been a favorable fantasy matchup for tight ends in 2024, but there's something about starting any Patriot in a must-win game that makes me feel like I'm living the end of Thelma and Louise.
Plant the Flag
We're going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called "Plant the Flag."
Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top 25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.
Harris: As noted above, I have high hopes for Williams and the Bears' passing attack in Minnesota, which I hope will be a massive shootout. If so, Rome Odunze, the lone bright spot for Chicago with two touchdowns in San Francisco, will show up again against a Vikings defense that's allowed the most receptions on deep passes this season. As Berry notes, Odunze leads the Bears in average depth of target, deep targets, and end-zone targets. Odunze is WR48 on this week's consensus rankings.
Davenport: We have well and truly doomed the Bears. Except maybe D'Andre Swift. We didn't mention him.
There aren't many fantasy receivers who have been a better value this season than Khalil Shakir of the Buffalo Bills, and that value didn't vanish when the team traded for Amari Cooper. Both Bills receivers could repeat last week's success Sunday in a game with the Lions that is the only Week 15 contest with an Over/Under north of 50. Shakir had over 100 yards and a touchdown against the Rams last week. Cooper was targeted a whopping 14 times. Giddyup.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.
