Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.06 pick. Now comes the big question: Do you take a top wide receiver like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, or Amon-Ra St. Brown? Or do you go with one of the two running backs in Tier 2: Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson?
Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12
In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two powerful tools that are essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.
First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.
Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical second-round decision point to the mid-round picks that can make or break your draft.
By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.
We are going to dive deep into two different roster approaches from the 1.06, exploring how your draft is impacted if you decide to go with a running back instead of a wide receiver at 1.06.
First, let's talk about who is likely to be available when you are on the clock at 1.06. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill have virtually no chance of falling to 1.06. If one of these top three unexpectedly slides, taking him is a no-brainer. But assuming the top three are off the board as expected, here’s how the Draft Dominator ranks the top options for pick 1.06 and their likelihood of being available based upon recent draft data from the Footballguys Bowl:
- Justin Jefferson: 57% chance of being available
- Breece Hall: 48% chance of being available
- Ja'Marr Chase: 40% chance of being available
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 68% chance of being available
- Bijan Robinson: 65% chance of being available
Of the above five options, only three will be available at the 1.06 so you are at the mercy of the drafters at 1.04 and 1.05. Here is who made it through to us at 1.06 in our Draft Dominator mock:
In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft.
I’ve included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you're capitalizing on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available.
So, what should we do with the 1.06? It is hard to pull the trigger on Ja'Marr Chase over Amon-Ra St. Brown, given that Chase remains embroiled in contract drama. If the decision is to go wide receiver, St. Brown is the choice. We should also strongly consider Bijan Robinson.
Let's explore these two separate and distinct paths of attack and see which road leads to a better overall roster.
Path 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown at 1.06
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a target machine in an offense that feeds him consistently, making him a safe yet high-upside pick with the potential for over 100 catches and 1,500 yards. His elite route-running and reliability in PPR formats give you a strong WR1 foundation at 1.06.
If you watched the @netflix show “Receiver” then you know that Amon-Ra St. Brown is not a stranger to playing through injury.
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) August 25, 2024
However, when quantifying it, he’s truly impressive (stats below) pic.twitter.com/Oxv0ivbUeX
2.07: De'Von Achane
After selecting Amon-Ra St. Brown at 1.06, it's time to consider your options at 2.07. Given the need to balance your roster with a strong running back, De'Von Achane stands out as an excellent choice. His insane efficiency last season, with an average of 0.67 fantasy points per snap, suggests he’s on the cusp of a breakout year. If he sees a significant increase in snap count in 2024, Achane could easily become a fantasy football game-changer.
3.06: Malik Nabers
With a solid wide receiver and a high-upside running back already on your roster, your 3.06 pick offers the perfect opportunity to bolster your receiving corps. Malik Nabers, who has shown elite talent throughout the preseason and training camp, is a top target here. His ability to consistently earn eight-plus targets per game makes him an ideal WR2 with massive upside.
4.07: Ken Walker III
At 4.07, it's wise to target another running back to solidify your backfield. Ken Walker III is an excellent choice here. There’s a quiet confidence coming out of Seattle about the role Walker will play in their offense, with the expectation that he will be heavily featured. His potential to be a workhorse back makes him a strong addition to your team at this stage.
Rounds 5 to 11
We took some risks in this team build with De'Von Achane and Malik Nabers in rounds two and three. In the end, we went all-in on upside and made pick-after-pick targeting high-upside young players.The benefit to this approach is that when you take enough big swings, you do not need to hit on every single one of them. If even one of the mid-round trio of Rome Odunze, Ladd McConkey, and Jameson Williams has a breakout season, the roster sets up very well overall. We were able to put together a fun Lions passing-game stack, as well.
Path 2: Bijan Robinson at 1.06
Bijan Robinson is a dynamic, game-changing talent with the ability to produce elite RB1 numbers from day one, making him a perfect pick at 1.06. His explosive playmaking and potential for heavy usage in the Falcons' offense offer a rare blend of floor and ceiling in a running back.
2.07: Cooper Kupp
After securing Bijan Robinson in the first round, your focus shifts to locking down an elite wide receiver. Cooper Kupp is the ideal choice at 2.07. Despite dealing with some injury concerns last season, Kupp remains one of the most reliable and productive receivers in the league. Pairing him with Robinson gives you a potent combination of top-tier talent at both running back and wide receiver.
3.06: Josh Jacobs
At 3.06, the opportunity to further strengthen your backfield presents itself with Josh Jacobs. Jacobs had a phenomenal season last year, leading the NFL in rushing yards. Adding him to your roster not only solidifies your running back position but also provides a formidable 1-2 punch with Bijan Robinson. This selection gives you a dominant ground game that will be the backbone of your team.
4.07: Patrick Mahomes II
At 4.07, it’s time to secure a top quarterback, and who better than Patrick Mahomes II? Mahomes is the premier fantasy quarterback, capable of single-handedly winning matchups with his weekly performances. With Mahomes under center, your team has the potential to outscore any opponent, especially when combined with your already strong roster. This feels like a bounce-back season for Mahomes, with 5,000 yards and 50-plus passing touchdowns well within his range of outcomes.
5.06: Xavier Worthy
In Round 5, focus on adding high-upside talent at wide receiver, and Xavier Worthy fits the bill perfectly. Worthy is an emerging star with the potential to deliver big plays and consistent production. His explosive speed and playmaking ability make him a valuable WR3 with significant upside, especially paired with the stability of Cooper Kupp.
Rounds 5 to 11
Robinson and Jacobs are two of the safest backs in the draft. Having them at the top of our roster allows us to ignore running back through the middle rounds and add some high-upside players elsewhere. While late-round quarterback feels like a solid strategy this season, Mahomes is one of the quarterbacks worth spending a premium pick on if he slides a little bit. In this mock, he slid to our pick in the fourth round and was too good to pass up. We paired him with star rookie Xavier Worthy to form one of the most exciting stacks of 2024.
Final Thoughts
When drafting from the 1.06 spot, two distinct strategies emerge, each with its own advantages and potential risks. Here's how these paths compare:
Path 1: Draft Amon-Ra St. Brown
This approach starts with securing a high-floor, high-upside wide receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown at 1.06. This selection provides a strong foundation in PPR formats, where St. Brown’s target volume and consistency can anchor the receiving corps. Following up with De'Von Achane at 2.07 adds a breakout candidate at running back, while Malik Nabers at 3.06 strengthens the wide receiver position with significant upside. Ken Walker III at 4.07 ensures a balanced roster with a potential workhorse back, and the middle rounds focus on young, high-upside players who could turn into league-winners.
Path 2: Draft Bijan Robinson
This strategy emphasizes running back dominance by selecting Bijan Robinson at 1.06, providing a potential top-tier RB1 from the start. Cooper Kupp at 2.07 adds elite production at wide receiver, balancing the roster with high-end talent. Josh Jacobs at 3.06 pairs with Robinson to create a powerful backfield, and Patrick Mahomes at 4.07 secures the top fantasy quarterback, offering both stability and explosive potential. Xavier Worthy at 5.06 adds upside at wide receiver, with the middle rounds focused on adding depth and ensuring roster balance, particularly through potential breakout players.
Conclusion
Both paths offer robust strategies, with the first leaning towards a balanced roster that maximizes upside across all positions, while the second path focuses on establishing dominance at running back and quarterback. The choice between these strategies depends on your drafting philosophy—whether you prefer to build a well-rounded team with flexible mid-round options or aim to control key positions early with elite talent. Both approaches can lead to a successful draft and a strong season ahead.