Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Broncos
Sean Payton's offenses have been historically good in HLO scores for the backfield. Quietly, Denver has posted elite HLO scores in Week 3 and Week 5 and is now a top-3 HLO backfield. Javonte Williams has gained market share of the backfield where a few weeks ago he felt uncertain about retaining the starting job. Audric Estime should be back from injury soon. Jaleel McLaughlin is the clarified RB2 for now. Plus, Bo Nix is playing better after a rough start to the season (and his career). Expectations are tepid, but there is positive momentum here for the backfield to provide more value than projected a month or two ago.
Bears
D'Andre Swift is in the middle of enjoying a quality schedule stretch, plus strong HLO. Chicago has been in the top half of HLO rankings every week since their horrific Week 1 debut. Swift is RB21 in PPG on the season but has posted 50 points over the past two weeks with the Jaguars in Week 6 and Commanders in Week 8, offering strong matchups to continue his vaulting up the season-long rankings sandwiching Chicago's bye week.
Bengals
The Bengals have been the most consistently good HLO offense in the NFL this season. They have four weekly finishes in the top 12 of the statistic, and Zack Moss' injury status is a key watch point for Week 6 (and beyond). Chase Brown has excelled in the No.2 role but has league-altering upside should Moss miss time. The only two teams in the top 12 of both goal-line and target categories of HLO are the Bengals and the Saints.
The Bad
Steelers
Najee Harris had a golden opportunity for an elite market share with an elite matchup in Week 5 against Dallas. With Cordarrelle Patterson and Jaylen Warren out, Harris managed just 70% of the rushing attempts and 65% of the team routes on his way to a ho-hum fantasy performance. Also, Pittsburgh did Harris no favors with their worst HLO score of the season against Dallas. Pittsburgh has yet to finish higher than No.9 in HLO for a week and has been No.24 or worse three times.
Packers
Green Bay was discussed as a significant offense improvement for Josh Jacobs changing teams this offseason. The Raiders were No.22 in HLO last season and failed to optimize Jacobs for prime production. The Packers, however, are No.28 through five games with one of the lowest target totals for the running back position in the NFL. This is without a healthy MarShawn Lloyd, a potential challenger to eat away at Jacobs' strong RB1 market share of the backfield. Also, adjust the upside of Emanuel Wilson downward if Jacobs were to miss time in the near term.
The Ugly
Cardinals
The Cardinals, like the Chargers, have been a stalwart here in the ugly section of analysis. James Conner is RB17 in PPG thanks to a dominant market share of the backfield, but elevating into a strong RB1 for fantasy is a tall order considering Arizona is No.32 in running back targets and No.25 in goal line carries per game. Also, adjust upside expectations for Emari Demercado and Trey Benson if Conner were to miss time as they would split the backfield more than Conner is currently.
49ers
Jordan Mason fumbled away a red zone carry in Week 5, and the team posted its worst HLO score in more than a season. They have yet to finish better than No.16 in any week this season, and Mason has relied on market share dominance and converting goal-line opportunities more than seeing receiving work. The 49ers' pass-catchers are all healthy at the moment, and the team has struggled to maintain a positive game script like games/seasons in the past with Christian McCaffrey. The positives for Mason remain with his strong market share of the backfield and remaining healthy with a big workload through five weeks. The negative is elite upside is a difficult ask, considering the situation and HLO is working against him.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
Catch up on all of Chad Parsons' articles here at Footballguys.com.
