High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.

• Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
• HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
• GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
• TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets

The Good

Lions

Detroit is in a tier of their own through the opening two weeks. Their 19.3 weighted average HLO score is 18% higher than the Dolphins in the No.2 position. One negative is a close-to-even split between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Either would have a game-changing upside if the other is out in a particular week or month. Both are averaging at least 16 PPG thus far and have an easy 20 PPG upside with a clarified lead role opportunity. 

Dolphins

Miami joins Detroit as the only two teams with consecutive top-10 HLO finishes this season. The consolidation to De'Von Achane in Week 2 fueled a 30-point outing after 23 points in Week 1. Achane was iffy with an ankle but logged 29 touches and emerged without incident for Week 3. Raheem Mostert is a quality buy-low while he is out, and Jaylen Wright has impact potential for later in the season if injuries persist.

Jets

Breece Hall and Braelon Allen combined for the No.3 HLO rankings for Week 2. The tandem posted 30 touches, including nine receptions and 42 PPR points. Breece Hall is valued as an elite asset in redraft and dynasty leagues. The adjustment is that Braelon Allen is a league-winning type of player if Hall were to miss a chunk of the season or the fantasy playoffs due to his expected market share and the Jets' elite HLO situation.