Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Lions
Detroit is in a tier of their own through the opening two weeks. Their 19.3 weighted average HLO score is 18% higher than the Dolphins in the No.2 position. One negative is a close-to-even split between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Either would have a game-changing upside if the other is out in a particular week or month. Both are averaging at least 16 PPG thus far and have an easy 20 PPG upside with a clarified lead role opportunity.
Dolphins
Miami joins Detroit as the only two teams with consecutive top-10 HLO finishes this season. The consolidation to De'Von Achane in Week 2 fueled a 30-point outing after 23 points in Week 1. Achane was iffy with an ankle but logged 29 touches and emerged without incident for Week 3. Raheem Mostert is a quality buy-low while he is out, and Jaylen Wright has impact potential for later in the season if injuries persist.
Jets
Breece Hall and Braelon Allen combined for the No.3 HLO rankings for Week 2. The tandem posted 30 touches, including nine receptions and 42 PPR points. Breece Hall is valued as an elite asset in redraft and dynasty leagues. The adjustment is that Braelon Allen is a league-winning type of player if Hall were to miss a chunk of the season or the fantasy playoffs due to his expected market share and the Jets' elite HLO situation.
The Bad
Packers
Malik Willis under center turned Josh Jacobs into an empty-calorie running back. The empty-calorie moniker references piling up yards but of the rushing variety and outside of the red zone. Jacobs ran all over Indianapolis in Week 2 but with minimal passing game or touchdown opportunities. While Green Bay earned the win, fading Jacobs in lineups on strong fantasy teams due to Malik Willis was the right call and is the continued advice until Jordan Love returns.
Bills
James Cook is on a path to a breakout season with RB7 in PPG and 95 total yards or more in both weeks. However, the Bills' HLO is not aiding Cook with two HLO weekly finishes in the bottom half of the NFL. Ray Davis looks to be emerging as the backup option to own in Buffalo. The good news is Cook has been a focal point of the offense as Buffalo's wide receivers (and Dalton Kincaid) are off to slow(ish) starts to the season.
The Ugly
Bears
D'Andre Swift is the clear starter by overall market share, but Khalil Herbert has siphoned goal-line opportunities and Travis Homer is subbing in for obvious passing situations. Swift is being squeezed for the most optimal situations. Also, the Bears are 19th in goal-line carries and 24th in targets. Swift is one of the most overrated starting running backs through two weeks.
Giants
The Giants just had their best overall matchup to post big numbers (Washington) with Cleveland and Dallas up next. The Giants have yet to have a goal line carry for a running back and are middle-of-the-road for targets. Devin Singletary is also one of the weaker starting running backs and is connected to an offense led by Daniel Jones. All signs point to a low ceiling from this situation.
Chargers
J.K. Dobbins' quality two weeks of production has come with no HLO help from the situation. The Chargers are dead last in goal-line carries and 30th in running back targets. Also, Dobbins' production has been buoyed by multiple long runs and a chunk (non-goal-line) touchdown. As concerning as the HLO environment is, Dobbins' lack of strong market share is worse. Dobbins had 40% of the running back carries and 45% of the team routes in Week 2. Dobbins has yet to separate himself from Gus Edwards. He has been very fortunate to produce as he has in a full-blown committee and with zero HLO aid.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
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