Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly with examples and completed dynasty trades.

This week, we'll focus on the big names of the tight end position with a slow start to the season.

*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*

TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore

Theme of the Week: Sample Size

Mark Andrews is one of the few unquestioned elite tight ends over the past half a decade in the NFL, full stop. Andrews has five straight TE6 or better finishes in aPPG entering 2024. Only Travis Kelce and George Kittle have longer active streaks at the position. Another key stat for Andrews within the position is the active tight end list with 2.00 yards-per-route-run or higher for their career. The list is Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and (three games into his career) Brock Bowers. A retired recent inclusion is Rob Gronkowski. Earning targets is another rare trait for tight ends over a large sample size. Mark Andrews has a 24% target-per-route-run rate in his career. The 23% TPRR threshold eliminates everyone but Andrews, Jordan Reed, and Brock Bowers. 

In doing a deep dive on Andrews career comps (there are only a select few), I looked specifically for the most extreme fall-off possibilities. Andrews is TE30+ through the opening three weeks and there is a 'sky is falling' feel out there.

Zach Ertz fell to TE26 after a string of four straight TE5 or better finishes in his prime. After that TE26 aPPG finish, he bounced back to have two more in the top-12.

Jimmy Graham was elite for four straight years, then 'dropped' to the top 12 for three straight years, then two more in the top 18 of the position. Graham was a steady decline in terms of career arc.

Darren Waller is the only other remotely close comparison (a much lesser peak) and was derailed by injuries and then retired this offseason.

Those are the declining dramatically at this juncture or post-peak examples.

The true comps for Andrews are Tony Gonzalez, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and George Kittle. None of them finished (TBD on Kittle) outside the top 12 until a handful of seasons beyond this point outside of Rob Gronkowski missing a season due to injury.

In short, if Andrews mires through this year, even outside the top 12, it will be a historically outlier of epic proportions considering his profile. 

It has been a slow start for Andrews without question, but a small sample size of three games, including a week where Andrews was shut out and Baltimore threw 15 passes in the overtly positive game script against Dallas. If it is Halloween and Andrews is still miring well beyond the position's starting zone for October, the reassessment can begin. Until then, Andrews is one of the glaring profile buys with the opportunity squarely until he rebounds with a more typical Andrews pop performance.

Here are a few key Andrews trades this week with him as a buy valuation and recommendation:

• Buy Andrews for 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (1PPR TE boost)
• Buy Andrews for Jameson Williams (2PPR for TE)
• Buy Andrews for Zack Moss (2PPR for TE)
• Buy Andrews, 25 1 for Drake London
• Buy Andrews for D'Andre Swift, Jonnu Smith (1PPR TE boost)

TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City

Theme of the Week: Old is Unappealing

Travis Kelce sits at TE24 through three games, having a very un-Kelce-like start to the season. Like Mark Andrews, Kelce is an unequivocal stud at 2.12 yards-per-route-run and 23% targets-per-route-run for his career. This year? Those numbers are 0.76 and 14%. Kelce is running a solid 30 routes per game as well. Betting on an avalanche of career data over a season start for veteran players is prudent in the macro view of dynasty player bets. Is Kelce 'done'? It is possible. The most likely outcome is a combination of small sample size (at least one defensive coordinator is known for taking the opponent's key players out of the game by design), Kelce likely ramping up in-season as opposed to in July and August more than most players, and Rashee Rice elevating his role within the offense. Rice's 33% TPRR through three games is historically high; view it as unsustainable.

Kelce can easily be on an 0-3 roster right now, making him the perfect older player to acquire. That team already has an eye toward 2025 and the idea of Kelce retiring in the offseason or indeed being an albatross on their roster worth nothing in the future has passed through their consciousness.

Here are a few key Kelce trades with him as a buy-and-sell valuation and recommendation:

• Buy Kelce, D'Andre Swift, 1st for Sam LaPorta
• Buy Kelce for Alec Pierce, 2nd (1.5 PPR TE)
• Kelce for 2nd is a common trade being executed this week

One aspect of the 2nd round valuation I would point out is Jake Ferguson is generally available for 2nd in the market as well. Ferguson has a strong ceiling this year if looking to pivot. While Kelce for Ferguson directly may not be possible in your league, shifting Kelce to a 2nd and then the 2nd to Ferguson as a pass-through is a possibility. This is if a team is concerned about Kelce. The LaPorta trade has no premium attached to the positional scoring, so taking the 1st, selling off Swift after the deal, and holding Kelce offers a myriad of ways to win the trade both in the short and long-term spectrum.

TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit

Theme of the Week: Youth Congestion

Sam LaPorta was a vibrant touchdown machine as a rookie last season, vaulting to an elite finish. Through three games, LaPorta has yet to score a touchdown, sustained an ankle injury, and has logged 1.06 YPRR and 10% TPRR while running a robust 29 routes per game. The elevation of Jameson Williams in the offense throws a wrinkle into LaPorta being the clear second option to Amon-Ra St.Brown. LaPorta was good last year (1.76 YPRR) but not elite and supported by a balmy 10 touchdowns. LaPorta could easily be good but not great overall in his career, and 2023 was a perfect set of touchdowns, Jameson Williams not being overly involved, and LaPorta drawing 23% TPRR, where he settles in the 19-21% for much of his career.

Here are a few key LaPorta trades with him as a sell valuation and recommendation:

• LaPorta for 1st, 1st (0.5 TEP)
• LaPorta, Ken Walker III, 2nd for Breece Hall
• LaPorta for Dalton Kincaid, 2nd, 3rd
• LaPorta, Jerry Jeudy for Sam Darnold, Mark Andrews, 2nd, 3rd

Arbitraging within the tight end position is a strong strategy with LaPorta right now considering exits include getting Kincaid+ or Andrews+. The main differential is that LaPorta could easily be a good option/profile for the time being and not an elite option, yet it is still valued as an elite asset in many leagues.

Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys.