Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly with examples and completed dynasty trades.
This week, we'll focus on the latest injuries for Dak Prescott and Chris Olave, plus the post-breakout game for Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas
Dak Prescott was already fading in the dynasty trading market due to a ho-hum year as a veteran quarterback. Prescott has not been much of a rushing option since his ankle fracture in 2020. That said, Prescott's plummeting price has been far more severe than warranted, considering Prescott had eight straight QB13 or better finishes in his career leading up to 2024. Prescott sits in the QB16-20 range for the market and is poised to be one of the best values in Superflex startup drafts once the offseason opens for business. That said, Prescott is the perfect buy for dynasty teams out of the race in the final weeks before the trade deadline. Even contending teams who can afford to invest in Prescott, who may not play again this season (minimum four games and see where Dallas is sitting by then), will be better for it in the long run.
- Prescott for 25 2nd, 26 1st
- Prescott, Jalen Coker, Jerry Jeudy for Trevor Lawrence
- Prescott, Xavier Worthy, 25 1st for Kyler Murray, James Conner
- Prescott, Bucky Irving for Baker Mayfield, Najee Harris
- Prescott, Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin for Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers
The first trade is an example of a contending team giving only future picks (projecting late) for Prescott. The others are prime examples of a non-contending team giving production now for Prescott (and others) for 2025 and beyond. In addition to aiding draft position, the ancillary pieces are aligned with the same vision. For example, the final deal, which gives two starting quarterbacks for Prescott and multiple injured wide receivers is a perfect construction as a win-win deal.
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WR Chris Olave, New Orleans
Chris Olave sustained yet another concussion in Week 9, prompting an extended absence. Given the Saints' current trend, this may end his season. Olave's career start has been impressive, with a career mark of 2.21 yards per route run and a 25% target per route run. Other active wide receivers to hit those career thresholds are:
This is quite the list. Olave sagged behind the rest of the list due to lower routes per game, touchdown rate, and (probably) level of quarterback during his early years. Olave is one of the best bets to eventually hit the massive ceiling of the rest of the list in a future year when health, volume, and touchdowns converge.
- Olave, 2nd for Josh Jacobs
- Olave for Khalil Shakir, 2nd, 2nd
- Olave for Cedric Tillman, Zach Ertz, 2nd (1.5 PPR TE)
- Olave for Rhamondre Stevenson, 2nd, 3rd
- Olave for James Conner, Amari Cooper
All of these are prime examples of acquiring Olave as a non-contending team. Flipping older running back production like Jacobs or Conner+ are ideal scenarios to rebalance a dynasty roster.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) was a massive star in Week 9 with a career highlight game. After a sluggish rookie season, Smith-Njigba has passed Tyler Lockett in the pecking order and now has three games of at least 12 targets. Smith-Njigba's 7-180-2 stat line also came with a dominant 4.29 yards per route run and vertical prowess (20.3 aDOT), which was not present in previous strong games for the slot maven. It was the perfect storm for Smith-Njigba, which means exploring the sell market this week is a savvy move. Smith-Njigba is not a must-sell, but let's check on the pivot-exit opportunities.
- JSN, 3rd for David Montgomery, 1st
- JSN for Tyreek Hill
- JSN for 1st, 1st
- JSN, 2nd, 2nd for Nico Collins
- JSN for Brian Thomas Jr.
These are the best examples of why to explore the sell market even if projecting someone like Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be on the upside. Week 9 came with D.K. Metcalf out, who is not going away contract-wise or age curve-wise any time soon in Seattle. Leveling up to Nico Collins or Brian Thomas Jr.. are ideal moves within the position. Shifting to Tyreek Hill opens up a massive, consistent ceiling for a contending team. Finally, the David Montgomery is a classic two-way go construction. The concept is a team can win the deal two ways: Montgomery might outproduce Smith-Njigba over the next few seasons, plus the 1st can be more valuable than Smith-Njigba as well. This is an optimal trade.
Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys.
