Did the Bears make a mistake drafting Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels?

The online debate over this topic last week was both intriguing and a perfect example of the valuations we must make early in NFL players' careers to gain an edge on our competition.

Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) argued that, based on the draft history of first overall versus second overall picks, there was roughly a 55% chance the Bears made the right call (at the time of the pick) and a 45% chance they should have drafted Daniels instead. This sets an important baseline for any of these discussions. Adam Harstad has regularly written about approaching fantasy player valuations through the lens of Bayesian statistics.

In Bayesian terms, prior probability is the likelihood of an event before new data is introduced. It represents the best rational assessment of an outcome's chance based on current knowledge, before new information (or in our case, the NFL season) unfolds. Here, the prior probability equates to preseason expectations. As the season progresses, we update this with posterior probability—the new likelihood after incorporating fresh data, such as what we've observed in the first quarter of the season. 

Now that we've seen enough games to update our prior beliefs, it seems increasingly likely—maybe a 65% chance (?)—that Jayden Daniels will have the better career. Odds may be even higher that he has the more valuable fantasy career. His early-season performance has been nothing short of remarkable. The Commanders currently boast the second-most efficient offense (EPA per drive) through the first four weeks of a season in the past 25 years. Daniels has been a big part of this success, with an 82.1% completion percentage that's still on the rise; he's completed an astonishing 89% of his throws over the past two weeks. On the ground, he's already rushed for 218 yards and four touchdowns, all while avoiding big hits—a crucial skill for a quarterback with his dual-threat style. Additionally, we're seeing the same early locker room buy-in from teammates that we saw with C.J. Stroud last season. Put differently, the vibes are way more positive in Washington than in Chicago. Daniels seems to have already convinced his teammates he is on the path to superstardom. You cannot say the same about Williams and his Chicago teammates.

The real key to gaining an edge in dynasty leagues is mastering how to weigh this new information against our preseason expectations. As we head into October, recalibrating and forming new outlooks based on early-season data is crucial. Given this is a monthly article, the focus will be on early-season trends as opposed to short-term usage changes. 

In this month's Dynasty Trade Value Chart article, we'll dive deeper into these ideas, focusing on the following topics:

• A decrease in quarterback fantasy production overall and an increased reliance on rushing production to score fantasy points
• Valuing Patrick Mahomes II
• A change in how running backs are being used
• Rashee Rice versus 2025 rookie picks
• Recognizing the Upside in Jayden Reed
• The drop in tight end production and how it impacts strategy.
• The emerging 1.01 in 2025 rookie drafts

Quarterback

Big Picture Trends: Scoring Down

Quarterback fantasy scoring is significantly down across the NFL. Through four weeks, only eight quarterbacks are averaging more than 18 fantasy points per game. To put that in perspective, at this same point in the 2020 season, 17 quarterbacks were averaging 18+ PPG. In 2021, that number was 18. Curious about how this year's low scoring compares to past seasons, I did some digging, and here's what I found:

We are clearly in a downturn when it comes to quarterback fantasy scoring. This is the third straight season with 11 or fewer quarterbacks averaging 18+ at this point in the season. 

There's another trend worth noting: of the eight quarterbacks currently averaging 18+ PPG, one (Jordan Love) has only played two games. Six of the remaining seven have already scored multiple rushing touchdowns (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Fields). Sam Darnold is The only quarterback who averages 18+ PPG without at least 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game.

Here's the rushing production from the top seven fantasy quarterbacks this season:

In short, fantasy production from passing is way down. Aside from Love (who has only played two games), no quarterback is averaging 300 passing yards per game. The only difference-makers at the position, except for Darnold, are putting up relatively big numbers with their legs. 

Looking forward, the major takeaway is that the days of 5,000-yard passers putting up huge numbers through the air look to be over, at least in the short term. This increases the value of quarterbacks with rushing upside. As such, we see guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Jayden Daniels maintaining or increasing their dynasty trade values. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes II, Justin Herbert, and others who score the vast majority of their fantasy points through the air have seen their values diminish.

Patrick Mahomes II

Is it time to have the real-life value versus fantasy value conversation about Patrick Mahomes II? He's on a path to challenge Tom Brady as the greatest NFL player of all time, and there's no denying his talent or importance to the Chiefs. Kansas City is undefeated at 4-0, despite a tough early schedule, and Mahomes is the best player in the league.

However, from a fantasy perspective, the story is different. Mahomes is currently the QB18, averaging just 14.1 fantasy points per game after four weeks. This comes on the heels of last season, where he finished as the QB12 in points per game (17.9). This ties back into the bigger-picture trend above that has seen running quarterbacks separate from the pack.

With injuries to Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown, the hopes of Mahomes having a monster fantasy season are likely dashed. More importantly, this isn't the same Kansas City blueprint we saw in the early Mahomes years. Remember when he threw for 478 yards and six touchdowns in a 54-51 loss to the Rams? Those days are gone. Nobody is putting up 54 points against a Chiefs defense that has allowed fewer than 18 points per game over their last 20+ games, dating back to the start of 2023. The blueprint moving forward for the Chiefs is likely to include a balanced offensive approach and relatively conservative offensive approach many weeks because of positive game scripts due to the excellence of the defense.

From a dynasty perspective, Mahomes remains the safest of bets for long-term fantasy usefulness. We may just be entering a phase in which he is not an elite fantasy performer with the week-winning upside we have come to expect. 

Running Back

Big Picture Trends

Unlike the other positions, fantasy scoring is not down at running back. In fact, more backs are averaging 14+ fantasy PPG this season than in any other recent season. However, some bigger-picture trends are notable when looking at running back production broken down by category:

Running back receptions have hit their lowest point in recent years, showing a clear downward trend. Since 2018, there has been a 16.7% decline in receptions for running backs, with an almost linear drop each season. In contrast, rushing yardage and touchdowns have seen an uptick compared to previous seasons. The days of receiving backs racking up catches seem to be fading—Jahmyr Gibbs, for example, hasn't had a single catch in back-to-back weeks. However, rushing touchdowns are on the rise. Add it all up, and running backs are now scoring a higher percentage of their fantasy points via rushing than receiving. 

Wide Receiver

Nico Collins

While I had Collins ranked ahead of Tank Dell throughout the offseason, I didn't anticipate such a significant production gap between the two. Although we're only four weeks into the season, and Dell has been sidelined by injury, it's becoming clear this was a misjudgment. This offense doesn't seem like one where the top wide receiver changes each week; instead, Collins is emerging as a dominant WR1, with Dell and Stefon Diggs playing complementary roles. I'm not ready to place Collins in the elite tier of veteran receivers with Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja'Marr Chase just yet, but he's showing the potential to get there. He's currently on pace for 128 catches, 2,078 yards, and eight touchdowns. If he continues to stack 100-yard receiving games, he will deserve to be valued right alongside the top wide receivers like Justin Jefferson.

Rashee Rice

When evaluating Rice's dynasty trade value, it's important to start with this: he's the clear favorite to become Patrick Mahomes II's go-to target in 2025 and 2026. Yes, there are off-field concerns and a potential suspension looming, plus the uncertainty added by his injury. However, looking ahead to next offseason and 2025 startups, a comparison to rookie picks provides a useful benchmark. I believe Rice will be more valuable—and a higher startup pick—than all but the 1.01 rookie pick. As of now, the only incoming rookie I'd consider over Rice in a devy league is Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. If you're in a rebuild, think about what you would trade for a 2025 rookie pick you knew for certain would land in the Top 3; that would be a reasonable value equivalent for Rice if he is ruled out for the rest of 2024. 

Jayden Reed

We only have a two-game sample of Reed playing with Jordan Love this season, so these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, it's hard not to be excited about his performance. In those two games, he's caught 11 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns, and added another 33 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Reed has to be one of the biggest risers at the position a quarter of the way through the season, and for several reasons. First, this Packers offense, with Love at the helm, looks just as explosive as we had hoped. Second, while we expected the abundance of young pass-catching talent to create fierce competition for targets, most of the other young Packers skill players have underwhelmed. Christian Watson has been a major disappointment and is now injured, Luke Musgrave has been a non-factor, and Romeo Doubs has been solid, but nothing more. We are dealing with a very small sample size (two 2024 games with Love), so this is a spot where we do not want to overreact too much. That being said, if Love continues to play at an elite level and Reed emerges as the go-to target on a near-weekly basis, his dynast value will sky-rocket. 

Tight End

Big Picture Trends

It feels like tight end scoring is way down this year but it has felt like that at other times in recent years. In an attempt to quantify how poor tight end production has been in 2024 compared to recent years, I calculated how many tight ends were averaging 11+ fantasy points per game through the first four weeks. Here is what I found:

We are down BAD. Only two tight ends are averaging more than 11 fantasy points per game this season and there are reasons to believe it may not be sustainable for one of the two. Dallas Goedert was off to a slow start before A.J. Brown (and then DeVonta Smith) were injured. Once both return to the lineup, his target share will take a massive hit. George Kittle's production seems more likely to continue, though it is worth noting that he has seen more than five targets in a game just once this season. 

Where does this leave us? Those taking the biggest hit are those who loaded up on tight ends in TE super premium (which I define as 0.75 or higher premium) hoping to build an advantage using tight ends in the flex spot. For everyone else, the overall lack of production at the position probably does not change tight end values very much. If replacement value at tight end is going to be all the way down at 7.5 PPG in PPR leagues (of the tight ends who have played at least three games, Zach Ertz is the TE12 in PPR points per game with 7.5), then a player like Brock Bowers scoring 10.7 PPG still gives you a solid weekly edge at the postion. It also changes the equation as far as upside. If someone like Bowers were to emerge as a 15+ PPG player (which is possible if Davante Adams is traded) and the replacement level production at the position remains incredibly low, he could be one of the more valuable overall dynasty assets despite not putting up prime Travis Kelce numbers. We are grading on a gigantic curve at the position given how putrid production has been across the board. 

In short, tight end values overall are negatively impacted by the decrease in production at the position since we have fewer viable flex options, even in TE-Premium scoring. However, the values of the top producers (and those with the potential to emerge as top prodcuers) do not take too big of a hit given the potential for separation at the position. 

2025 Rookie Picks

I went deeper on the 2025 class last month, so will not go too deep here since not a ton has changed. It is worth noting that Ashton Jeanty has continued to show out. He has been on fire in terms of production, advanced stats, PFF grading, and has also hit some high MPH numbers in tracking numbers. He checks all the boxes and has a great chance to go in the first round of the NFL Draft, which would likely make him the 1.01 in all formats. 

"Dad, how special was 2024 Ashton Jeanty?" pic.twitter.com/gcOyuxwtCW

— Max Chadwick (@CFBMaxChadwick) October 2, 2024