Dynasty Data: Startup Draft Steals at RB

Photo: USA Today Sports

A player's Dynasty ADP is largely a function of his redraft ADP and Age. Data modeling can help us quantify the strength of these connections.

A linear model built to predict a wide receiver's Dynasty ADP based only on their age and Redraft ADP returns an R-squared value of 0.957. An R-squared value of 1 would be a perfect connection. The 0.957 value indicates that about 95.7% of the variability in dynasty values can be explained by age and redraft value.

The most interesting aspect of these models is not the players whose Dynasty ADP is exactly what the model predicts. Instead, the insight comes from analyzing the outliers. In this week's four-part series of articles, we will highlight the running backs and wide receivers whose Dynasty ADPs most differ from what the model says their Dynasty ADP should be, based upon their age and Redraft ADP. For example, Jameson Williams is 23.3 years old and has a redraft ADP of 109 (according to Sleeper). The model says Williams should be going in the middle of the 8th round of dynasty startups (93.5 overall). Instead, his actual Dynasty ADP (111.5) is a full round and a half later. The model says Jameson Williams is a steal at his current Dynasty ADP, but is he really? 

We will investigate that question and examine the other running backs and wide receivers whose Dynasty ADPs are outliers according to the model.

Series: See RB Dynasty Startup Draft Steals here >>>
Series: See RB Dynasty Startup Draft Reaches here >>>
Series: See WR Dynasty Startup Draft Steals here >>>
Series: See WR Dynasty Startup Draft Reaches here >>>

Running Back Dynasty Steals

Let's look at the players the model predicts should be going earlier in Dynasty drafts than they actually are to see if we can identify potentially undervalued Dynasty targets.

Thoughts on Undervalued RBs

Another indicator Jaleel McLaughlin is undervalued. McLaughlin was featured here two weeks ago in the Dynasty Data article highlighting players who produced elite EPA numbers last season. A 23-year-old running back with a clear path to a featured role in an offensive system that is known for running backs racking up huge receiving numbers should not be going outside the Top 200 in dynasty startups. Period.

Age does not always equate to longevity. One of the other major takeaways here is that age does not always directly correlate to the time a player should be expected to maintain his role. Rico Dowdle, who just turned 26, is a potential starter in 2024. However, his window of fantasy relevance is likely short. Even if he has a solid season, we should expect the Cowboys to seek an upgrade at the position next offseason. The same could be said for Elijah Mitchell, who may soon lose the backup job in San Francisco to Isaac Guerendo. Chuba Hubbard is getting a redraft boost due to Jonathon Brooks still recovering from an injury, but it seems only a matter of time until he is relegated to a true backup role.

Keep an eye on Ty Chandler. This sort of modeling exercise is useful because it helps shine a light on players we should probably be more excited about in our dynasty drafts. Chandler is a prime example. Those doing early drafts for 2024 are already aware of the possibility Chandler will earn a large role in 2024. Aaron Jones was a big-name free agency addition but is getting up there in years and has been unable to stay healthy. There has been a steady drumbeat of positive news on Chandler the entire offseason. He is an underrated player worth targeting in dynasty.

Minnesota Vikings DT Harrison Phillips says the Vikings “have two true No. 1 running backs” in RBs Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler

He thinks the team will have a “one-two punch” in the backfield this year.

Via @TheAthletic pic.twitter.com/jaZqOmljwa

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) June 8, 2024

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