In this week's edition of Dynasty Data, we will explore the idea of Burn Rate, which is the amount of value your roster loses (or burns through) from one season to the next. 

Last offseason, I sampled actual startups (12-team, Superflex, TE-Premium, with $1,000 Auction Budgets) and calculated Average Auction Values. I did the same for recent Dynasty Startup auctions. Burn rate is easiest to explain if we view dynasty player values through the lens of these Dynasty Startup prices.

Let's start by grouping 2024 Startup Prices by draft class:

We are most interested in a single number from this table -- the startup dollars spent on incoming rookies ($1,705). This is 14.2% of the overall startup dollars, meaning the overall Burn Rate is roughly 14%. In other words, if you did a startup auction in 2023 and put together a perfectly average team, your team would be worth only $860 prior to your 2024 rookie draft. Each team's average rookie draft capital is roughly $140 ($1,705 worth of rookies split between 12 teams). 

If the value of your annual draft capital exceeds the value you lose via Burn Rate, your overall dynasty team value will increase. If your Burn Rate exceeds your draft capital, your team will bleed dynasty value. 

The key to building a dynasty juggernaut is minimizing your Burn Rate. We know that the Burn Rate overall is 14%. However, that does not mean the expected Burn Rate is the same for all groups of players. Comparing 2023 Startup Auction Prices to 2024 Auction Prices broken down by NFL Draft Class is the best way to understand how the Burn Rate differs depending on the player's age and level of experience. The table below shows the Burn Rate over the past 12 months for each Draft Class:

The calculated burn rates are eye-opening and make the strategy for maximizing your dynasty roster value obvious: Invest in youth!

Let's start with the 2023 rookie class. If you spent $100 of your $1,000 2023 Dynasty Startup budget on rookies and did an average job of picking those rookies, those rookies are worth $133.80 in 2024 Startup Dollars. This is a burn rate of -33.8%. The negative means that instead of burning value, the players actually saw their value increase. Any fantasy value you got from your 2023 rookies last season was "free" production, and on average, those players saw a significant increase in value. Rookie value gains from players like C.J. Stroud, Puka Nacua, Sam LaPorta, De'Von Achane, Dalton Kincaid, and Tank Dell far outweighed the value losses of rookies like Quentin Johnston, Bryce Young, and Michael Mayer. Most owners who invested a big chunk of their startup draft or auction capital into rookies have significantly more valuable rosters today.

On the other end of the spectrum, the dynasty owners who invested a significant chunk of their auction budget on older players (anyone drafted in 2019 or before) saw a massive value drop. The Burn Rate on these older players is scary. If you spent $100 of your 2023 Dynasty Startup budget on players drafted in 2019, those players are only worth $68.20 now. The burn rate of this draft class was 31.8% over the past 12 months.

Burn Rate by Position and Class

We can go deeper. While the table above shows the burn rate by draft class, it is a fantastic starting point. We can gain a much stronger understanding of expected burn rates moving forward by breaking things down by position. In the positional breakdowns below, we will talk about the top strategies to minimize burn rate.

Quarterback

Unsurprisingly, the burn rate numbers at quarterback are much different than those of other positions. 

Now that we have things broken down by both draft class and position, we need to be aware of drawing too strong of conclusions from small sample sizes. That being said, here is what stands out about the table above:

• Investing in 2023 rookies at the quarterback position was a smart move, though the average value gain at quarterback was much lower than it was at every other position. 
• It was a rough year for the 2021 quarterback class. Justin Fields and Mac Jones were the main causes of the group's value plummeting, but Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance also saw drops. The class of 2022 did not fare well either. The big takeaway here is that investing in quarterbacks in their first few years is a losing prospect overall.
• 2023 was an especially brutal year to invest in quarterbacks in their early 30s. Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo saw their values tumble. Small sample size caveats apply, but we should be wary of investing auction or startup draft capital into older quarterbacks.

So, if investing in very young quarterbacks and older quarterbacks were both losing propositions on average, what is the strategy at quarterback?

If we lump all quarterbacks who entered the league between 2016 and 2020 into one group, it becomes obvious this is the sweet spot at the position. We are going to have a few massive value hits for quarterbacks hitting year four to year eight. These quarterbacks in their mid-20s are generally established enough that if we value them highly in dynasty, they are not likely to lose their jobs or see their value get crushed. Think Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes II, Tua Tagovailoa, etc. These quarterbacks are also young enough that their value does not see any meaningful decline from one year to the next. This is a sneaky path to "free" production. You get starter-level fantasy production with an extremely low burn rate from these elite mid-career quarterbacks.

Running Back

If you remember only one thing from this article, I hope it is this table. This is the perfect visualization of burn rate at the running back position. The strategy at the position is clear: invest in young running backs. You enjoy “free” production those first couple of years. Not only do the young backs help you win games (Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, etc.), but they also tend to accrue in value. The flip side is that the burn rate is consistently painful for running backs heading into their third seasons and beyond. You are bleeding value. Injuries pile up. Exciting young guys with upside turn into boring veterans with minimal upside quickly. Those burn rates are UGLY for the classes of 2016 through 2021. Be careful investing a big chunk of your startup budget or draft capital in running backs who are not on the very young end of the spectrum.

Let's go slightly deeper and look at 2024 Auction Startup prices at running back broken down by draft class:

Even if it is a bad running back class, the $189 cumulative total for all 2024 rookie running backs is shocking. For less than 20% of your auction budget, you can grab every single rookie running back. Based on historical numbers, this is a great investment opportunity. A similar approach was possible (and recommended in Dynasty Trade Value Chart articles) at the tight end position in 2023. 

Christian McCaffrey's auction price ($152) is a major outlier, and it is especially clear when looking at player values through the lens of their rookie class. He is going into his eighth season. In the current market, running backs at this stage of their career are not highly valued in startups. He is a hard player to value because McCaffrey is so elite. However, it would not be surprising if his burn rate over the next 12 months is 50% or higher. Tread carefully.

Wide Receiver

Investing in rookie wide receivers in 2023 startups was a wildly successful strategy. As a group, the -53.4% burn rate means that, on average, these rookie wide receivers drastically increased in dynasty value over the past 12 months.

On the other end of the spectrum, the wide receivers entering Year 5 or later (Class of 2019 or before) suffered from consistently high burn rates. In 2024 auctions, drafters are way more out on these same players than they were at the same time last offseason (think Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, etc.).

The burn rates from last season are fascinating in the context of deciding whether to invest significant startup dollars in the stars from the rookie class of 2020 (who are now entering Year 5) versus investing in what has been described as arguably the best rookie wide receiver class of the past decade.

Based on historical data, we know that the Class of 2020 is already roughly halfway through their productive fantasy careers on average. Yet, startup drafters are spending roughly the same amount on 2020 wide receivers ($740 total) as on 2024 wide receivers ($788 total). If history is a guide, the top 2024 wide receivers will have significantly lower burn rates over the next 12 months than the top 2020 wide receivers. Here are those players:

Bet money that this group of 2024 wide receivers has a negative burn rate over the next 12 months. Not every player will hit, but history tells us the magnitude of the hits will outweigh the magnitude of the misses. The advice here is to invest a significant chunk of your startup auction dollars in rookie wide receivers, especially the ones priced at $60 or lower. The risk is relatively low for these cheaper rookies, and the potential reward makes any downside well worth the gamble.

Tight End

The 2023 rookie tight end class was described as the best in at least a decade and lived up to the hype. Investing in these players last season before their values exploded was the move. The second-year breakout of Trey McBride also led to major gains for the class of 2022. 

The burn rate for mid-career tight ends was relatively low. The data says you can invest in slightly older tight ends like Mark Andrews, George Kittle, David Njoku, T.J. Hockenson, and others without getting crushed. Travis Kelce (currently valued at $88), class of 2013, took a big value hit over the past 12 months, but it could have been worse.  He going for just $18 less than Brock Bowers. Kelce has been a fantastic player, but I can't wrap my mind around the wisdom of tying up so much of a dynasty startup budget in a skill-position player who will soon turn 35 in a few months. The burn rate there is likely to be astronomical.

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