NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
For the second consecutive week, Thursday night brings an intriguing matchup. The 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles host Jayden Daniels and the surging 7-3 Washington Commanders, who are coming off a heartbreaking one-point loss to the Steelers. Despite the setback, the Commanders have outscored their opponents by 73 points over 10 games, ranking third-best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles have hit their stride with five straight wins since their Week 5 bye. The pressing question is, "Just how good are the Eagles?" Aside from an impressive 37-17 victory over the Bengals in Week 8, their recent streak includes wins against the Browns, Giants, Jaguars, and Cowboys—teams with a combined 2-16 record in that span.
Vegas oddsmakers favor the Eagles, projecting a 26-23 home victory. Based on the implied game script, an even player distribution across both teams is recommended. The key to winning Showdown lineups will likely be selecting the right Eagles players, as the Commanders concentrate their production through a few key players—namely their running backs and Terry McLaurin. In contrast, the Eagles spread opportunities across Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. For lineup distribution, sticking to a balanced 3:3 setup aligns with Vegas projections, but if you favor one team, a 4:2 split in their favor also makes sense.
Injury Roundup
First, the good news: After missing the last two games with a hamstring issue, Brian Robinson Jr. is expected to return and should reclaim the lead role in Washington’s backfield after the veteran Austin Ekeler filled in during his absence. However, the Commanders will be without several key players, including linebacker Nick Bellore (knee), kicker Austin Seibert (hip), and recent acquisition Marshon Lattimore (hamstring). Lattimore’s absence is especially significant, as he was added to strengthen Washington’s secondary—a critical need against the Eagles’ talented receivers, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Seibert’s loss is less impactful; his replacement, Zane Gonzalez, was perfect last week, hitting two field goals and three extra points.
One last note: Three starting offensive linemen are listed as questionable for Washington. If any of them are unable to play, it could slightly downgrade Robinson’s potential.
On the other side, everything is going right for the Eagles. Philadelphia heads into Thursday’s game with a fully healthy roster, with no players listed on the injury report.
Captain Considerations
Washington Showdown Players
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels (FLEX)
Jayden Daniels has been a top-ten fantasy quarterback this season, averaging 19.5 DraftKings points per game. The Commanders' tendency to pass more than their game script suggests enhances his fantasy appeal. However, the Eagles' defense has been formidable against quarterbacks, ranking fourth in the league for fewest fantasy points allowed to the position. Additionally, Daniels' rushing attempts have decreased recently; after 57 carries in the first five games, he's had only 27 in the last five. This reduction in rushing limits his fantasy upside. Given the tougher matchup and his $10.4K salary, Daniels is a consideration, but not an essential option for Showdown contests.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr (FLEX)
Ausin Ekeler (FLEX)
Chase Brown, the second-year running back from Illinois, is poised for another significant workload this week. With Zack Moss (neck) on injured reserve and only newly-acquired Khalil Herbert as backup, the Bengals are likely to rely heavily on Brown against the Ravens. However, Baltimore's defense has been formidable against the run, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the league. Given this reality, it may be strategic to focus on the Bengals' passing game and let others anticipate a repeat of Brown's Week 9 performance against the Raiders.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin (CPT or FLEX)
Noah Brown (FLEX)
With Tee Higgins trending towards inactive, Ja'Marr Chase becomes a must-play option in Showdown contests. The big question is whether he should take the Captain slot or be used as a flex? Only Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are more expensive, but Chase offers comparable upside at a slight discount. He's averaging 11 targets per game when Higgins is out, and with Baltimore's struggles defending the pass, his opportunities should remain high. Thus, jam Chase into your lineups wherever you can fit him.
Andrei Iosivas is a tempting secondary option in Bengals stacks for Thursday night. He played about 90% of snaps in the two games Higgins missed, but his production has been minimal—just 1 catch for 10 yards and a touchdown across 7 targets. Priced at $3.4K, Iosivas is a boom-or-bust option I like in stacks with Joe Burrow. Despite limited receptions, his 8 touchdowns in 30 career catches highlight his red-zone potential and fantasy upside.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (FLEX)
Mike Gesicki, formerly of the Dolphins, is coming off a career-best performance with 100 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders last Sunday. Despite this 30-DK point game, he's still reasonably priced at $6.6K and warrants consideration against the Ravens' pass-funnel defense. In the two games without Tee Higgins, Gesicki has recorded 12 catches for 173 yards and (the aforementioned) two touchdowns. However, be cautious with Bengals stacks featuring Burrow, Chase, and Gesicki, as this combination will be popular. If you choose this route, differentiate your lineup with less common options elsewhere.
Under the Radar
Dyami Brown (FLEX)
Luke McCaffrey (FLEX)
The addition of Diontae Johnson to the Ravens' roster is expected to impact Nelson Agholor's playing time. As Johnson becomes more familiar with the playbook, Agholor's snap count may decrease. In his debut, Johnson was projected to play about 10-15 snaps, indicating a gradual integration into the offense. Consequently, Agholor's opportunities could diminish, making him a less reliable option for fantasy lineups. While his $3.0K salary is appealing, the likelihood of Agholor scoring fewer than 5 DraftKings points is higher than him exceeding that threshold.
Philadelphia Showdown Players
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (CPT or FLEX)
Lamar Jackson, a two-time NFL MVP, is currently a front-runner for his third MVP title, leading the 6-3 Ravens to 15 touchdowns scored across their past five games. Jackson is a must-play in Showdown contests, as he is almost guaranteed to post ~ 25 points against the league's 29th-ranked defense against quarterbacks. The analysis is simple--slot him in and build differentiation elsewhere.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (CPT or FLEX)
Derrick Henry has delivered over 28 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, more than justifying his $11.2K salary for Thursday night's Showdown contests. However, with multiple high-end options priced above $10K, strategic decisions must be made. While Henry has excelled even in challenging matchups, if deciding between him and Lamar Jackson, I lean towards Jackson due to his dual-threat capability, offering points through both passing and rushing. Furthermore, combining both players in the same lineup may limit scoring upside, as Jackson's fantasy success often comes at the expense of Henry's, particularly given that Henry rarely catches passes (nine receptions through nine games).
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown (CPT or FLEX)
Devonta Smith (FLEX)
I predict that Thursday’s Showdown contests will hinge on receiver selection. Lamar Jackson spreads the ball around and has plenty of options. Zay Flowers is the clear WR1, with 67 targets in 2024—double that of any other receiver. Flowers has topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last five games and is coming off a massive 32.7-DK point performance. Given his recent success and high salary, Flowers will be popular, making him a difficult but justifiable fade candidate.
Around the $5K mark, Rashod Bateman and Diontae Johnson offer substantial savings compared to Flowers. Bateman, a deep threat, can pay off his salary with a single touchdown, while Johnson, the new addition from Carolina, is likely to emerge as a volume option alongside Flowers. Industry projections indicate Bateman will be more popular than Johnson, so if your lineup is chalky, I’d recommend Johnson as a lower-owned pivot—and vice versa.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert (FLEX)
Mark Andrews presents exceptional value at $4.2K, especially with Isaiah Likely sidelined due to a hamstring injury. Andrews has scored four touchdowns over his past four games, even while sharing snaps with Likely. With Likely absent, Andrews is poised for increased playing time and targets, making him a strong candidate for 12+ fantasy points at a favorable salary. Positioning Andrews in the Captain slot offers significant upside and provides the salary flexibility to include higher-priced players elsewhere in your lineup.
Under the Radar
Nelson Agholor (FLEX)
The addition of Diontae Johnson to the Ravens' roster is expected to impact Nelson Agholor's playing time. As Johnson becomes more familiar with the playbook, Agholor's snap count may decrease. In his debut, Johnson was projected to play about 10-15 snaps, indicating a gradual integration into the offense. Consequently, Agholor's opportunities could diminish, making him a less reliable option for fantasy lineups. While his $3.0K salary is appealing, the likelihood of Agholor scoring fewer than 5 DraftKings points is higher than him exceeding that threshold.
Kickers and Defenses
After nearly three years out of the NFL, Zane Gonzalez made a successful return filling in for Austin Seibert last week against the Steelers, hitting all of his attempts—a boost to his confidence going into this matchup. However, his career accuracy on long field goals (40+ yards) sits at just 68.8%, which tempers expectations for rostering him here. Meanwhile, Jake Elliott has been solid for the Eagles, connecting on 80% of his kicks this season. It’s worth noting, though, that all his misses have come from beyond 50 yards, where DraftKings awards 6 points. Verdict: Neither kicker is a standout choice, but both offer salary savings and could score double-digit DraftKings points.
As for defenses, I would avoid the Commanders' unit, which has reached double-digit fantasy points only twice this season—both times against weaker offenses. In contrast, the Eagles' defense has been impressive since their Week 5 bye, racking up 19 sacks, 10 takeaways, and allowing only about 12 points per game. They’re a key reason for the Eagles’ recent success and could pose significant challenges for Washington, making them a strong consideration for Showdown contests.
