NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Oddsmakers are projecting a 25-22 victory for the visiting San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night. At first glance, this line feels a bit off, considering the Seahawks sit atop the NFC West and will be playing at Lumen Field, backed by their famous '12s' (formerly the 12th man). However, a deeper look makes the Vegas line more understandable. The Seahawks are coming off back-to-back losses after starting the season 3-0 with wins over the Broncos, Patriots, and a Tyreek Hill-less Dolphins team. They were soundly defeated by the Lions in Week 4 and followed that with a dismal performance against the Giants on Sunday. This matchup seems like a prime opportunity for the 49ers to reclaim the top spot in the NFC West as they await Christian McCaffrey's return from injury.

When considering roster construction, I’d advocate leaning heavily toward the 49ers in this game. While Vegas might be slightly off with the odds, there’s a chance to capitalize by building lineups that go against the mainstream. I'll dive deeper into this below, but I love Brandon Aiyuk this week, and he will be my captain in most contests. From there, I’ll structure my builds to favor the 49ers, likely using a 4:2 or even 5:1 SF:SEA ratio. I can easily see this game getting out of hand, with the Niners proving they are the class of the division, with or without McCaffrey.

Injury Roundup

The 49ers are dealing with significant injuries on defense, missing three starters for this game: linebacker Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (calf), safety Talanoa Hufanga (wrist), and lineman Jordan Elliott (knee). While these injuries certainly pose a threat to the Niners' defensive continuity, they've faced similar situations before, and their backups have historically stepped up when needed. The more intriguing injury is to kicker Jake Moody, who suffered an ankle injury last week and will also miss this contest. The 49ers signed Matthew Wright, most recently with the Steelers, on Tuesday to fill in for Moody until he recovers.

Seattle is equally banged up on defense. Linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (thigh) was placed on injured reserve after getting hurt last Sunday against the Giants. Additionally, cornerback Riq Woolen (ankle) and lineman Byron Murphy II (hamstring) are also expected to miss this game. Given the Seahawks' recent struggles against the run, these injuries set the stage for continued success from Jordan Mason on the 49ers’ side of the ball.

Captain Considerations

1. Brandon Aiyuk
2. Jordan Mason
3. DK Metcalf

San Francisco Showdown Players

Quarterback

Brock Purdy (FLEX)

Brock Purdy may not be the flashiest quarterback in the NFL, but he is one of the most consistent. Purdy comes into this matchup with 10 straight games of 230 or more passing yards. While his passing touchdown numbers are down compared to last year, despite having the same receiving corps, this could suggest that positive regression is on the horizon. Additionally, his increased scrambling over the past three weeks (19 carries for 85 yards) boosts his fantasy potential, making him close to a must-play in Showdown formats.

Running Backs

Jordan Mason (FLEX)

Averaging 21 touches per game, Jordan Mason leads the NFL in opportunities this season. With Christian McCaffrey sidelined due to ongoing health issues, Mason has stepped up, averaging 18.6 DK points per game in McCaffrey's absence. Given a gamescript that favors the 49ers and Mason's consistent involvement in the offense, he stands out as one of the top players in this limited player pool.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel (FLEX)
Brandon Aiyuk (CPT or FLEX)

There’s a lot to love about Brandon Aiyuk in this matchup. First, I’m not entirely convinced that Deebo Samuel Sr.. has fully recovered from the calf injury he suffered in Week 3. Since then, his target share has dropped by more than half compared to pre-injury numbers. Samuel is too talented to be ignored, but Aiyuk is my preferred receiver. He’s heavily involved in the offense, evidenced by his 24% target share, though he has yet to find the end zone in 2024. For context, Aiyuk averaged about one touchdown for every 10 receptions over the past two seasons. He’s my top option for Thursday’s contest, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes with multiple scores.

Tight Ends

George Kittle (FLEX)

With touchdowns in three straight games, George Kittle is continuing to showcase his scoring prowess in the 49ers' offense. Last year, while his yardage numbers dipped, his touchdown total nearly doubled from the previous season, a trend that has continued into 2024. Given that the players and offensive schemes haven’t changed much, it’s unlikely he’ll be easily contained in the red zone. Kittle is as talented as they come at the position and is fairly priced at $7.4K, making him a strong option for your lineups.

Under the Radar

Juaun Jennings (FLEX)

After his Week 3 breakout, where he filled in for Deebo Samuel Sr.. with 175 yards and 3 touchdowns on 11 receptions, Jauan Jennings has been relegated back to his WR3 role in the 49ers' offense. Jennings will be a popular pick due to recency bias and his low $4.0K price tag, so it's wise to limit your exposure to him in larger-field contests. Noah Fant, priced similarly, will see roughly the same number of snaps but will likely be featured in far fewer lineups than Jennings, making him an intriguing pivot.

Seattle Showdown Players

Quarterback

Geno Smith (FLEX)

Geno Smith has had a solid start to the season, completing over 70% of his passes and throwing for 280+ yards in four of the Seahawks' five games. Smith has a strong supporting cast, featuring one of the best wide receiver trios in the league. His range of outcomes in this contest is wide—he could struggle against the 49ers’ defense (he has only one touchdown pass in his last three matchups against San Francisco), or he could rack up significant yardage in garbage time. I lean toward the latter, which makes him a viable option, even with potentially high ownership.

Running Backs

Ken Walker III (FLEX)

After a three-touchdown performance against the Lions in Week 4, Ken Walker III underwhelmed last week with just 12 touches for 76 yards against the Giants. Walker is the most reliable fantasy option on the Seahawks, offering a consistently high floor. However, the 49ers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season and have given up only three rushing touchdowns across five games. While injuries to San Francisco's defensive front might boost his chances, Walker’s $9.8K salary makes him a tough sell given the challenging matchup.

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf (CPT or FLEX)
Tyler Lockett (FLEX)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (CPT or FLEX)

The Seahawks boast one of the most talented wide receiving corps in the NFL. DK Metcalf leads the group with 43 targets over his first five games, resulting in three 100-yard performances. He is the most explosive player in Seattle’s offense and should be considered in all formats (Captain/Flex) for this contest. Tyler Lockett, on the other hand, seems to have lost a step. The 32-year-old veteran has yet to score a touchdown this season, a trend reminiscent of his disappointing 2023 campaign. It appears the best of Lockett is behind him. However, his decline has coincided with the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The former first-round pick from Ohio State is now running neck-and-neck with Metcalf in snaps and targets during his second NFL season. Priced fairly at $7.0K, Smith-Njigba is a solid stacking partner with Geno Smith, especially if he ends up being the least-owned Seattle wide receiver—a possibility worth considering.

Tight End

Noah Fant (FLEX)

The Seahawks aren’t featuring a prominent tight end this season, rotating AJ. Barner and Pharaoh Brown alongside Noah Fant through their first five games. Fant is the only tight end worth considering, but even making a case for him is challenging. He’s playing roughly two-thirds of Seattle's offensive snaps and has only 18 targets so far this season. Priced at $3.0K, Fant is affordable, but you're banking on a touchdown if you roster him, as the volume to justify his inclusion simply hasn't been there this year.

Kickers and Defenses

While the kickers will certainly score points on Thursday night, it is difficult to recommend them in this contest. The Seahawks will feature Jason Myers, who has converted only 72.7% of his opportunities this season; he is only 5 for 8 beyond 40 yards, which is where kickers score the most points in DraftKings' scoring format. Meanwhile, the 49'ers will be without Jake Moody, who is tied with the Cowboys' Brandon Aubrey as the highest-scoring kicker to this date in the season. Instead, they will start Matthew Wright, who has not kicked a field in the NFL since Week 18 of the 2022 season. Over his career, Wright is 36 for 43 (~ 84% conversion), which makes him a palatable, albeit unexciting option for Showdown contests.

Considering the injury issues on both defenses, there may be good reason to avoid rostering either of them on Thursday night. Both teams, however, rank in the top ten in sacks, but those aforementioned injuries give me pause. I would avoid the Seattle defense altogether, given the narrative I have described above around my expectations for this game. If you must roster a defense to save salary, going with the Niners feels like the safer option given Geno Smith's blowup potential. That said, the best choice is to look elsewhere for salary savings.

Player Chart