NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
When a team – let alone a Super Bowl-minded one like Houston – finds itself a home underdog, that means Vegas is bracing for some degree of a blowout. The Texans aren’t flying particularly high right now, and they’re still missing key pieces; they’ve only scored 24+ points 3 times thus far. Detroit, on the other hand, has looked convincing in winning five straight, and they get to play this road date in a dome. It would shock no one to see another 38-20 type Lions win.
Thankfully, these aren’t particularly deep teams, at least at the skill positions. Neither uses many four-wide sets or offers many surprises as to who will touch the ball often. Regardless of game flow, we know that both teams will look to run the ball relentlessly with talented, high-volume backs. We also know that, when they do throw, they’ll concentrate it among just a handful of targets.
In other words, tonight doesn’t offer any obvious “Where did he come from?” options, poised to take down GPPs at 3% rostership. Rather, the goal tonight is to Captain the guy who touches the ball the most (and the most impactfully).
Injury Report
The Lions are relatively healthy, though it’s worth noting they’re without Taylor Decker, one of the league’s unsung pass-blockers at left tackle.
The Texans have designated top WR Nico Collins for return from injured reserve, but he’s yet to practice for Week 10. He looks less likely to suit up by the hour. Assuming Tank Dell can play, he’s in for a truly massive target share. (In a moment, will discuss just how much that matters.) On defense, rising star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has been ruled out, making life a bit easier for Detroit.