DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 10

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

When a team – let alone a Super Bowl-minded one like Houston – finds itself a home underdog, that means Vegas is bracing for some degree of a blowout. The Texans aren’t flying particularly high right now, and they’re still missing key pieces; they’ve only scored 24+ points 3 times thus far. Detroit, on the other hand, has looked convincing in winning five straight, and they get to play this road date in a dome. It would shock no one to see another 38-20 type Lions win.

Thankfully, these aren’t particularly deep teams, at least at the skill positions. Neither uses many four-wide sets or offers many surprises as to who will touch the ball often. Regardless of game flow, we know that both teams will look to run the ball relentlessly with talented, high-volume backs. We also know that, when they do throw, they’ll concentrate it among just a handful of targets.

In other words, tonight doesn’t offer any obvious “Where did he come from?” options, poised to take down GPPs at 3% rostership. Rather, the goal tonight is to Captain the guy who touches the ball the most (and the most impactfully).

Injury Report

The Lions are relatively healthy, though it’s worth noting they’re without Taylor Decker, one of the league’s unsung pass-blockers at left tackle.

The Texans have designated top WR Nico Collins for return from injured reserve, but he’s yet to practice for Week 10. He looks less likely to suit up by the hour. Assuming Tank Dell can play, he’s in for a truly massive target share. (In a moment, will discuss just how much that matters.) On defense, rising star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has been ruled out, making life a bit easier for Detroit.

Captain Consideration

1. David Montgomery
2. Jahmyr Gibbs
3. Joe Mixon
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown
5. Tank Dell

Could Make a Captain Case for:

1. Jameson Williams
2. Jared Goff
3. Sam LaPorta

Detroit Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff (CPT or FLEX)

The Lions offense is high-octane and highly efficient, and there’s always big touchdown upside here. That said, Goff is a dicey Captain play on middling volume. Only the Eagles, Steelers, Commanders, and Ravens have dropped back to throw at a lower rate. As a result, Goff has thrown 28 passes or fewer in 7 of his 8 games, and he’s only hit the 300 bonus twice. You have to love the efficiency: only Lamar Jackson has posted better air rates. Still, the Lions can win in all sorts of ways, some of which call for Goff to go 17 of 25 for 180 yards.

Running Back

David Montgomery (CPT or FLEX)
Jahmyr Gibbs (CPT or FLEX)

Gibbs doesn’t necessarily need particularly consistent volume to be impactful. He’s sheer lightning in a bottle, putting up 6.4 yards per rush thus far. His weekly 12-17 touches are more than enough to bring home big Captain value.

Of the two, I prefer Montgomery in either Showdown format, albeit by a hair. Most importantly, his profile is a bit lower with the public right now than the red-hot Gibbs, who’s scored six touchdowns in five games. That should mean a lower roster rate for Montgomery, and for a very similar floor and ceiling. Actually, Montgomery’s touchdown upside may be a bit more predictable; I’d rather bet on 1-yard plunges than 15-yard jaunts. And over the last 6 games, he’s even out-caught Gibbs 12-9 out of the backfield.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown (CPT or FLEX)
Jameson Williams (CPT or FLEX)

St. Brown hasn’t knocked many socks off in the 2024 redraft world. (Then again, what receivers have?!) He’s only drawn double-digit targets once – 19 in a frenetic Week 2 battle with the Buccaneers. What he has done, though, is capitalize on volume (a 28% target share) with the absolute best of them. He’s yet to drop a pass here in 2024, and he’s as likely as anyone to find the end zone tonight. Only Ja’Marr Chase has drawn more looks from inside the 10-yard line than St. Brown’s 7, who’s simply addicted to the goal line.

St. Brown’s Week 9 was encouraging: despite the Lions leading the Packers all day in the rain, he drew seven targets and caught each one, including a touchdown for his sixth straight game. You can get more creative at Captain, but there’s no real reason to fade St. Brown.

Williams defines the term “boom or bust,” having recorded 75+ yards in 4 games – and fewer than 10 in 2 others – then sat out 2 more on suspension. The Showdown scene, however, greatly favors those who veer from recent track record and chase ceilings. Williams is a situational guy: he drew 20 targets over the first 2 weeks, but just 10 over 4 games since. But boy oh boy, are those targets impactful. Few can touch Williams in aDOT or yards per target: 3 of his 17 catches have gone for 50+ yards.

Williams won’t catch anyone sleeping; he’ll be rostered at a much higher rate than most deep threats who pull 4-6 targets a week. Still, he’s a Showdown-winning talent who can turn a GPP on one quick snap.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta (CPT or FLEX)

The Lions absolutely love LaPorta, a franchise cornerstone who adds multiple dimensions to their offense. But this year’s Lions are run-heavy and low-volume, and much of what’s being asked of LaPorta doesn’t help the fantasy world. Take last week, for example: LaPorta caught a 19-yard pass on the opening drive, then went on to tie for second on the team in targets. Great news, right? He wound up catching 2 balls for 28 yards in a comfortable Lions win. It made for his third straight game of fewer than 50 yards, and his 6^th of 8 overall.

Still, I’m hitting the gas tonight. LaPorta has excelled when called upon, ranking among the top 10% of TEs in catch rate and yards per route. He was a winner in the red zone last year, and that’s a trend that should swing back his way at some point here in 2024.

Houston Texas

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud (FLEX)

The Texans are 6-3, but Stroud has plummeted down the fantasy world’s radar here in 2024. Much of that can be blamed on the absence of alpha receiver Nico Collins for five games and counting. Even more can be laid at the feet of a shaky front line that’s forced Stroud to makr creative plays more often than he should. The pass-blocking breakdowns have also shoved him into a conservative attack, rarely looking downfield with Collins on the shelf. Tank Dell, the No. 1 wideout in the interim, has taken a massive hit in downfield metrics from 2023 (14.3 aDOT, 9.5 yards per target) to 2024 (10.4 and 7.6).

Stroud clearly boasts the talent to snap out of his funk, Collins or no. But at the moment, his upside is capped tightly, and the floor we’ve seen over the past 3 weeks (5, 13, and 13 DraftKings points) can sink your Captain spot.

Running Back

Joe Mixon (CPT or FLEX)

With Stroud pushed off his rhythm and running for his life, Mixon is the straw stirring the Texans’ drink. He’s played 5 full games and produced 178, 132, 124, 136, and 106 scrimmage yards in them, adding at least one touchdown each time. That’s come in a number of different game types, too. With Mixon on the field, no other Texan back has touched the ball more than twice in a game; he’s the alpha, the omega, and the goal-line guy.

That said, there’s a strategy wrinkle that involves hammering the Lions side (playing four or five of them), then running it back with a Texan other than the heavily-rostered Mixon. If there’s to be a week in which Mixon flops, it will likely come in negative game script, and tonight he’s a home underdog to a Super Bowl frontrunner. Perhaps the Texans play catch-up all night, and it’s instead Tank Dell who paces the offense with 8-10 catches.

Wide Receiver

Tank Dell (CPT or FLEX)
John Metchie III (FLEX)
Robert Woods (FLEX)
Xavier Hutchinson (FLEX)

The good news: with Stefon Diggs out and Nico Collins unlikely to make it back tonight, Dell looks like the No. 1 option here. And he comes fresh off his best game of the year, 6 for 126 against the Jets’ tough secondary. The bad news: Dell was awesome as a 2023 rookie, near the top of the league in downfield metrics, but has stumbled out of the 2024 gate. He’s been hampered by injury for much of the year – he’s even questionable tonight – and last week marked his first game north of 65 yards. Even with Collins shelved, Dell has drawn an underwhelming 20% of the team targets, and he’s been wildly inefficient.

Last week, Dell ceded a handful of targets to reserves Hutchinson (59 snaps), Metchie III (50), and Woods (39). Sadly, neither Hutchinson nor Metchie notched a catch, and the close-to-the-vest scheme capped all their upsides anyway. None can be counted on tonight, but there’s some intrigue around Metchie, whose talent is reportedly still valued around the league.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz (FLEX)

Schultz has actually benefitted from Collins’ absence more than any of the wideouts. He’s drawn 5, 6, 8, 2, 6, and 6 targets over this span, though it hasn’t resulted in much production: just 33 yards a game, with a high mark of 52. Simply put: Schultz is a pure floor play for cash games, almost certain to land between 6 and 10 DraftKings points. There’s not much reason to project for more, which hurts his tournament value.

Kicker and Defense

There’s value potential in Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn, who’s ridden the Texans’ shaky red zone offense to the league’s second-most FG attempts (25). He’s kicked three or more in each of the last four games, drilling 13 of 16 over that span (3 from 50+). Anyone projecting the Texans to move the ball well against Detroit’s 22^nd-ranked per-play defense would be wise to roll in Fairbairn.

Player Chart