DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 7

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

This game screams “defensive slugfest,” and Vegas’ numbers reflect that. The 38.5 scoring total is the second-lowest of the slate – only the Bo Nix-Spencer Rattler battle from Thursday was projected lower (37). These defenses are tenacious and hard-hitting, and neither offense has scored consistently here in 2024.

That said, this is also a matchup that features relatively few playmakers. Both offenses tend to revolve around only 1-3 weapons, so it’s not quite as crucial we nail down multi-touchdown scorers tonight. Odds are, there won’t be any. In a matchup like this, Showdowns can be won by a bell cow back who sees 20 touches, or an alpha receiver catching 8-10 balls.

Injury Report

Both teams are relatively healthy at the skill spots. The Steelers will lack RB/KR Cordarrelle Patterson, but he’s much more a chess piece than anything; his volune shouldn’t affect much.

Captain Consideration

1. Breece Hall
2. Garrett Wilson
3. George Pickens
4. Davante Adams
5. Najee Harris

New York Jets

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (CPT or FLEX)

Ho-hum. Rodgers has flirted with 300 yards twice – both in matchups with medicore pass defenses – and fallen flat in the other three games.

vs. Bills and Patriots: 71% completions, 8.2 yards per throw, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception
vs. Titans, Broncos, and Vikings: 56% completions, 5.1 yards per throw, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions

Still, there’s reason to believe in Rodgers this week. The addition of Davante Adams, sure, but beyond that. The Pittsburgh defense, coasting a bit on reputation, has trended a bit downward of late. They’re actually a middle-of-the-pack unit in pressure rate, sack rate, and net yardage allowed. And that’s come against a subpar schedule of quarterbacks.

Running Back

Breece Hall (CPT or FLEX)
Braelon Allen (FLEX)

Hall is the slate’s safest choice, for Captain or otherwise, and he’s hard to argue against. Through all his early struggles, he’s still laid claim to 70% of the Jets’ backfield opportunities, and he broke from his shell last Monday night (23 touches, 169 yards). Hall will be the most explosive player on the field tonight, and this Steelers defense is no longer the run-prohibitive group it once was. More than anything, he’s an open-field speed back, and he looks poised to erupt in the new-look Jets offense. All that new motion and misdirection we saw Monday bodes well for any matchup.

Allen has developed quite the fanbase, but his role has yet to grow. He’s yet to play more than 27 snaps in a game, and those 14 touches from Week 3 look like an oasis.

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson (CPT or FLEX)
Davante Adams (CPT or FLEX)
Allen Lazard (FLEX)
Mike Williams (FLEX)

Those who feel Rodgers was just an Adams away may have to wait at least a week. The Steelers have done a great job here in 2024 of forcing the action away from their opponent’s top wideout. If that’s the case, Rodgers will spend most of the day throwing to the same receivers he’s had all year. (Maybe not Williams so much.)

Of course, there’s also a universe in which Rodgers forcefeeds Adams tonight. The NFL’s squeakiest wheel got its grease, and he may feel pressured to send 12-15 targets Adams’ way. My concern there would be one of roster rate (surely high) versus ceiling (not dazzling). At 31, Adams isn’t getting downfield nearly as much anymore: he’s seen both his air yardage and his after-catch numbers dip majorly over the last two years. And the Steelers have done a fine job against No. 1 wideouts in their own right. Ultimately, a line around 8 catches, 65 yards likely wouldn’t help you in a deep GPP tournament. I plan to veer from the crowd and fade him entirely.

Perhaps Wilson is still the No. 1 in this offense. He’s certainly the more explosive of the two, and he’s excelled with a lot less under center. Yes, his target share will take a hit, but it had plenty of room to dip anyway (31%). He’s proven over the last two weeks that he and Rodgers have indeed connected. If Adams indeed takes a week or two to get on Rodgers’ page, then Wilson could see another double-digit looks.

It’s more likely Adams siphons snaps and targets more from Williams, who’s still recovering from the weight of that bus. The fault on that final interception is up for debate, but what’s not is Williams’ miniscule role in the offense before last Monday (just an 8% target share). It would surprise no one to see Williams benched or even scratched tonight, and there’s almost no upside to be found.

Lazard remains a trusted ally of Rodgers, as seen on last week’s successful Hail Mary, and he’s always a fair GPP stab. You could even Captain him for the low-rostered possibility of Adams and Wilson both being held in check.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin (FLEX)

Conklin has drawn just 5.0 targets a game, which is no real surprise in a Rodgers-led offense. Rodgers asks a lot of small things of his tight ends, but catching passes with volume generally isn’t one of them. With Adams plopped into the mix, there’s a zero-catch floor here, and no real ceiling to speak of.

Under the Radar

None.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback

Justin Fields (FLEX)
Russell Wilson (FLEX)

This certainly looks messy, at least for tonight. In the Showdown GPP world, where uniquness matters much more than what we know “should” happen, that means opportunity!

Wilson no longer looks capable of producing big numbers through the air. Over 15 games in Sean Payton’s offense, Wilson produced just 6.9 yards per attempt – only 5.7 per dropback – and 204.6 per game. Now, he’ll enter another run-dominant attack that looks to keep the ball short and under control. The majority of Fields’ fantasy appeal has come from his legs, and Wilson simply isn’t a difference-making runner anymore. In Denver, he posted just

This being one of the highest-profile QB controversies in football right now… would it be shocking to see a mid-game switch? Or an injury to the -year-old Wilson? Fields will play some, according to coach Mike Tomlin, but I see at least a 30% chance he finishes under center. Rolling the (loaded) dice on Fields – if he were to produce – would both bring unique DraftKings points and help bury those who’d rostered Wilson. This is NOT a recommended strategy, but it’s strategy nonetheless.

Besides, in a worst-case scenario in which they split snaps evenly… who would you trust more to create DraftKings points?

Running Back

Najee Harris (CPT or FLEX)
Jaylen Warren (FLEX)

Don’t be fooled by last week’s eruption: Harris is as plodding as they come, with just 3.9 career yards per rush. He’s heavily dependent on touchdowns and checkdown receptions, but he’s mediocre in short yardage and mediocre catching the ball. Still, there’s Captain appeal in such a stripped-down matchup, where he and George Pickens should dominate the offense. Volume like Harris’ could win a Showdown even without gaudy yardage.

Warren bounced back mid-week to play in Week 6, but he probably shouldn’t have. He managed just 18 yards on his 9 touches, clearly working at less than 100%. When healthy, he’s only been able to carve out 26% of the duo’s touches. It’s hard to find even a glimmer of upside here.

Wide Receiver

George Pickens (CPT or FLEX)
Van Jefferson (FLEX)

Pickens has been a prickly talent, but a major talent nonetheless. He’s the only playmaker in this attack, and it’s shown in his 29% target rate. (Among Steelers wide receivers, he’s claimed a stunning 58%.) With dazzling speed and ball skills – and no real competition for downfield throws – he’s capable week-to-week of producing whatever the offense allows him to. Given that target rate, Pickens has yet to truly break out here in 2024. There’s a pervasive feeling he’s due, and he’ll face an injury-ravaged group of Jets cornerbacks. Assuming Breece Hall leads the way in popularity tonight, Pickens should offer real, unique value at Captain.

Jefferson has long been valued by coordinator Arthur Smith, mostly for his blocking. It’s landed Jefferson a solid role in the offense (66% of snaps), but still only 8 catches through 6 games.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth (FLEX)

He’s the definition of consistency: 3+ receptions in 9 of his last 11 games. That said, he only topped 50 yards in one of those nine. You’d like to see some touchdown upside, but while the skillset is there, this simply isn’t that kind of offense. Inside the 10-yard line, Freiermuth has been thrown at just 5 times over his last 22 games.

Under the Radar

Calvin Austin III (FLEX)

The explosive Austin just can’t seem to get his snap rate to tick upward. He can’t shake ho-hum veterans Jefferson or Scotty Miller, nor can he wrestle many short targets from TE Pat Freiermuth. Still, you could do worse in a dirt-cheap differentiator.

Kicker and Defense

In a projected slugfest, the kickers and defenses tend to see upticks in roster usage. Not a huge one, though, so they’re all in Showdown GPP play tonight. Both teams are mediocre in the red zone, so it’s no surprise Greg Zeurlein (8 of 12 field goals) and Chris Boswell (16 of 17) have been busy.

The defenses will be even more coveted. The Jets sit 6^th league-wide in pressure rate (28.9%) and 3^rd in sacks (20), while T.J. Watt alone (4.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) is enough to get the field interested in Pittsburgh.