NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas continues to fluctuate this spread between Chiefs -3 and -3.5, so there’s no reason to project a blowout (or garbage time) in either direction. The Chiefs, after all, have landed within one score in 10 of their last 12 games. The 46.5 total feels a little low, which hints that Vegas may be semi-desperate for folks to bet the over. In other words: this doesn’t feel like a shootout, with neither team big on splash plays thus far, and both defenses like to watch the deep ball.

In a closely-projected game, the first instinct is often a 3:3 team:team build. But I rarely have success with those; hedging and safe play won’t take home much on a Showdown slate. I’d much rather lean Falcons 4:2, playing for the possibility of a sluggish Chiefs offense that struggles to sustain drives without Isaiah Pacheco.

Injury Report

The Chiefs backfield has been put into disarray by the loss of Isaiah Pacheco – perhaps for the rest of the season. Now, the fantasy world waits with bated breath to see how coach Andy Reid sorts out Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, and Kareem Hunt. They’re also operating without new face Hollywood Brown, who’s yet to play a regular-season snap for the Chiefs.

For the Falcons, only Tyler Allgeier (hip) offered up any drama over the week, and he looks ready to play tonight.

Captain Consideration

1. Bijan Robinson
2. Rashee Rice
3. Travis Kelce
4. Drake London
5. Patrick Mahomes II

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes II (CPT or FLEX)

Mahomes remains the NFL’s standard, though not necessarily the fantasy standard. The Chiefs know they’re playoff-bound, and Andy Reid isn’t about to spend the regular season giving free film to the league; they take out just enough to win. Mahomes rarely goes bonkers through the air, whether things are going well around him or poorly. Even his blowup spots aren’t really blowups: Mahomes hasn’t thrown 3+ touchdowns in any of his last 11 regular-season games, with just a single 300-yard showing over that span. Unless you’re playing for a 17-13 type of game, this feels like a wasted Captain slot. Rather, target the guy you think will catch six or more of his passes.

Running Back

Carson Steele (FLEX)
Samaje Perine (FLEX)

There’s a lot to like about the bruising, never-go-down Steele, and his potential in the Isaiah Pacheco role. That could conceivably mean 50-60 weekly yards and ample touchdown opportunity. That said, until we see Andy Reid’s plan laid out, it will be hard to project much upside for Steele right off the bat. Steele caught 58 passes in college but has only run 4 routes thus far without a target. Tonight, he’s a poor, poor man’s Pacheco at best – and likely at high rostership.

Perine should be at least a little more unique, and there’s Jerick McKinnon-like upside there. If the Chiefs are forced into a negative game script, Perine will likely lead the way in snaps. That could mean 5-7 targets and all the touchdown opportunity that comes with this offense.

Wide Receiver

Rashee Rice (CPT or FLEX)
Xavier Worthy (CPT or FLEX)

It’s happened: Rice has definitively usurped Travis Kelce as the Chiefs’ primary weapon. There may well be scattered games left in which Kelce catches 10 balls or 2-3 touchdowns as the safety valve. But overall, this attack belongs to Rice, who’s drawn 30% of Mahomes’ targets thus far. That comes on the heels of soaking up 26% over the final 10 games of 2023 (playoffs included). Of course, targets are just targets without production. Luckily, Rice has turned these 15 looks into 12 receptions, 178 yards, and a red-zone touchdown. Rice sees usage all over the short and intermediate levels, hence that dazzling 78% career catch rate and 8.7 yards after catch. (The latter is second only to Deebo Samuel Sr. since the start of 2023.) He’s in play as Captain for as long as Mahomes is feeding him well-timed crossers into wide-open space.

Worthy hasn’t wowed anyone with his early usage, just seven targets through the first two weeks. Still, that’s made for a 14% share, certainly not miniscule and equal to what Travis Kelce has seen thus far. He’s already proven his splash-play mettle, and for what it’s worth, he wasn’t far from a 62-yard touchdown against the Bengals. With the Kansas City offense forced to regroup and adapt, that could mean a slight elevation in Worthy’s role as soon as tonight. It’s also worth noting that Pittsburgh’s George Pickens exploited Atlanta’s soft deep coverage twice in the season opener.

Tight End

Travis Kelce (CPT or FLEX)

This can’t go on much longer. Kelce will be 35 next month, but few could have predicted just 7 targets and 39 yards through 2 games (both Chiefs wins). The turnaround should come soon; in fact, it nearly started during last week’s one-catch nightmare. Kelce was tackled at the 1-yard line after a catch, then had a 41-yard gain negated by penalty. That’s an extra 16.8 Captain points left on the table – and that’s Kelce’s floor. We saw Kelce average 22.5 Captain points as the safety blanket in 2023, so we all know the ceiling. Factor in that goal-line runner Pacheco is out, which could lead to even more safety-blanket use near the goal line. And this week, Kelce will cost just about the same to Captain as true wild card Xavier Worthy. The value is palpable.

Under the Radar

JuJu Smith-Schuster (FLEX)
Justin Watson (FLEX)

Watson could be an alarmingly popular play tonight. He’s yet to produce here in 2024, but he’s long been a Mahomes favorite for splash plays, and his salary is spiking abruptly tonight. Perhaps the sharps know something, but just reading the tea leaves suggests his rostership has bounced early in the year. Perhaps Smith-Schuster, who also boasts a history with Mahomes, could catch 3-4 balls and/or a short touchdown and bring cheap, unique value.

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (FLEX)

Cousins looked worlds better in his second Falcons outing than in his first. That’s to say: he seemed a little more confident in his lower body, and that should only grow over the season. Unfortunately, this offense still seems gun-shy and ill-equipped to shoot it out with the Chiefs. Even in Week 2, the Falcons managed just three field goals through their first five drives, with Cousins at just 5.9 yards per attempt. It would likely take more late-game heroics – and then some – for Cousins to deliver Sho value against Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive defense.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson (CPT or FLEX)
Tyler Allgeier (FLEX)

Robinson has reached workhorse status (or, at least, the 2024 version of it). With 76% of the pair’s opportunities through 2 weeks, he’s relegated Allgeier to clear backup status after ex-coach Arthur Smith struggled to commit to either. The Captain case for Robinson is simple: he leads the backfield, and he’s wildly efficient (5.7 yards per touch) behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Robinson has run more routes (46) than Kyle Pitts (45), and he’s drawn just as many targets (10) as Drake London. Furthermore, he’s likely to be Captained less often than Rashee Rice (and perhaps another Chief or two), despite a much clearer path to high usage. Robinson will almost certainly claim 20+ carries plus targets no matter how tonight goes. He won’t win your GPP singlehandedly, as virtually everyone will have heavy shares of him. But as Captain, he could provide just enough advantage to make a difference.

Wide Receiver

Drake London (CPT or FLEX)
Darnell Mooney (FLEX)
Ray-Ray McCloud III (FLEX)

London isn’t a very exciting Captain play, but that’s what makes him such an exciting Captain play. The numbers through two weeks are ho-hum: 8 receptions, 69 yards, 1 touchdown on just 19% of Falcons targets. But that lag, plus the presence of the Chiefs’ high-profile weapons, should keep London behind the pack in terms of rostership. As a massive target with a big catch radius, he’s always an intriguing zig from the Captain pack. But tonight, with a bit of shootout potential in play, he’s even more attractive. The Falcons aren’t afraid to throw in the red zone, and London could bring Showdown value on just a pair of short touchdown catches.

It’s puzzling to see McCloud, the team’s target leader through two weeks, come so cheaply. Of course, targets have to result in production, and McCloud has just 7 catches and 94 scoreless yards to show for them. His salary will make him a popular play tonight, which means you’re better served looking elsewhere for cap relief.

Perhaps Mooney, who feels wildly overpriced, makes for the right zag from McCloud. Mooney has caught just 4 balls thus far, but he’s tied with London and Bijan Robinson for second in target share (19%). And it must be noted that all 4 of those catches went for 15+ yards, including a 41-yard touchdown last week.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts (FLEX)

You have to feel for Pitts, one of fantasy’s biggest disappointments of the last few drafts. But perhaps ex-coach Arthur Smith is off the hook for failing to feature Pitts more from 2021-23. Turns out, Pitts isn’t great at getting open downfield on his own, and he’s fit in thus far as a down-the-line target for Cousins. Full disclosure: it’s still absurd to see Pitts ignored so consistently. After drawing a 20% target share with Smith at the helm, he’s commanded just 13% to start 2024. There’s always upside with Pitts, yadda, yadda, yadda. The 23-year-old could theoretically erupt at any moment. Still, you’d be burning a Captain slot by chasing a breakout that hasn’t even been hinted at yet.

Under the Radar

None

Kickers & Defenses

Both kickers are among the league’s best. Harrison Butker and Younghoe Koo are both accurate and strong-legged, and neither coach hesitates to turn to them for points when a drive stalls. Those are great factors, but they alone don’t move the needle much in an offense-heavy matchup like this one.

But let’s also factor in that they’ll both kick tonight in a dome, where Koo has hit 41 of his last 45 field goal attempts. And it helps that both offenses have struggled since the start of 2023 to score touchdowns from the red zone. There’s a very real avenue for this game to wind up in the neighborhood of 26-23. In that case, either Butker or Koo could certainly wind up the most Showdown worthy Chief or Falcon of the night.

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