NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas seems to be in on the idea of the Giants, competitive in their last four games and winners of two, being a “tough cover.” That's especially true against the flailing Bengals, whose pitiful defense has been unable to stop anyone here in 2024. Since the opener, they've allowed 26, 38, 24, and 41 points, and sportsbooks have responded with a high 47 total. Given the leaky Bengals defense, and the Giants' tendency to never stop fighting, it's fair to project something of a shootout tonight. That tends to favor the pass game over the run, so tonight's QBs and their weapons should lead the way. will have to involve

Injury Report

Cincinnati comes in at near-optimal health on offense; questionable RB Chase Brown (quad) looks good to go. Conversely, the Giants are missing their two best playmakers, rookie WR Malik Nabers (concussion) and RB Devin Singletary (groin). Like last week, Nabers' mammoth 38% target share will be spread around a small, tight rotation. Singletary will again be replaced by the duo of rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. and, to a lesser extent, Eric Gray.

Captain Consideration

1. Joe Burrow
2. Ja'Marr Chase
3. Darius Slayton
4. Tee Higgins
5. Daniel Jones

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback

Joe Burrow (CPT or FLEX)

Burrow comes fresh off one of the most impressive four-start stretches of his career. Many would disagree with that, as it's produced just a single win, but it's growing harder and harder to blame Burrow for much of anything. Over that span, he's completed 72% of his throws and averaged 302 yards a game (8.4 per attempt) – and the Bengals have lost by 1, 5, and 3 points. He's the Showdown crown jewel tonight, at least from a scoring standpoint, and cash-game rosters should probably Captain him.

In Showdown GPPs, though, there's strategy involved there. Burrow will likely lead the field in Captain usage, so even another huge game likely wouldn't boost you much. Tonight's GPP key may come down to identifying his busiest and most productive target… and Captaining him instead.

Still, Burrow is my preferred Captain play in any format. As good as the Cincinnati air attack has looked, I'm expecting even another gear at some point. They're lagging below the league average in pass rate and play rate, and I'd be surprised if those didn't tick upward soon. If/when Burrow starts throwing 40+ times weekly, he'll boast weekly 35-point upside. 50+ Captain points would hit nicely, catching big Captain value from both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, rather than rolling the dice between the two.

Running Back

Chase Brown (FLEX)
Zack Moss (FLEX)

If Brown were to be sidelined by his quad injury, Moss would make for a busy and wildly popular Showdown play tonight – and he'd certainly appear in Captain Consideration above. With both active, though, this is roughly a 65/35 timeshare that's yet to produce much upside for either. Moss has laid claim to 70% of the duo's snaps, but Brown has been more active, taking on 41% of their opportunities (carries + targets). They've each scored 3 times, and neither has produced a 100-yard scrimmage day.

Of the two, Brown makes the more Showdown sense. With the lower touch count – and after being on the injury report all week – he'll likely be rostered noticeably less than Moss. And he's posted an elite 0.58 DraftKings points per snap on the year. (For comparison's sake, note that NFL rushing leader Jordan Mason sits at 0.34.)

Wide Receiver

Ja'Marr Chase (CPT or FLEX)
Tee Higgins (CPT or FLEX)
Andrei Iosivas (FLEX)

Chase has been his typical, dominant self over the past 3 weeks, taking full advantage of the Bengals' high-octane attack. Facing three soft secondaries, Chase recorded 25 catches, 396 yards, and 5 touchdowns, drawing 23% of Joe Burrow's targets. He's fully back, and he'll be in virtually every lineup tonight, Showdown or otherwise, GPP or otherwise. Makes for an ideal fade, right?

Um, yeah… you fade him at your own peril. A white-hot Chase leading a white-hot Bengals offense should be the free square in every lineup. His mix of floor (6-7 catches, 70+ yards) and ceiling (error: does not compute) is difficult to beat. You don't want to be caught without him, and unless he's injured early, you likely wouldn't benefit much from a fade.

The only drama here is whether to Captain Chase, as many will tonight. That wouldn't differentiate much for you, though missing out on some 35-40 Captain points would devastate you. I lean toward making Burrow my Captain so I can (a) catch the overflow of a potentially huge Higgins game and (b) veer just a bit from what I think will be a Chase-dominant Captain field.

The team is thrilled to have Higgins back, as he both makes plays downfield and draws some bracket coverage away from Chase. Higgins caught a pair of touchdowns last week, but he's yet to break out here in 2024 or even catch a pass for more than 17 yards. That anonymity next to Chase creates a great Showdown opportunity. (Virtually) all will play both Chase and Higgins tonight, but the majority will Captain chase for his sky-high ceiling. If the Giants can control Chase with doubles, and it's Higgins who catches 9 or 10 balls, then he can turn Showdowns on their heads.

With Higgins back, Iosivas has drifted from fantasy relevance. He's made two big receptions – and no more – over the past two weeks. Apart from those, he's turned 18 targets into just 85 yards on the season, and he doesn't look close to nudging back into a role.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki (FLEX)

Like all their TEs over the years, Gesicki is far more valuable to the Bengals than to the DFS and/or Showdown world. He stretches the field at the seams and makes occasional plays: in Weeks 2 and 3, he caught 14 balls for 138 yards. Still, those games came amidst a game plan calling for higher-than-usual TE usage, and it's hard to project them again. He's also yet to draw a look from Burrow inside the 10-yard line. Gesicki is cheap tonight, and he's a great way to differentiate. There's just not much upside to see here.

Under the Radar

Jermaine Burton (FLEX)

No, the Alabama rookie hasn't drawn a target since Week 2. In fact, he's only played eight offensive snaps since then. But he's wildly talented, with an 83^rd-percentile athleticism score at the Combine. And it's hard to be any less efficient than Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas – a meager 6.7 yards per target – have been in the No. 2 and 3 receiver roles. Some week, coach Zac Taylor will have to involve Burton's length and field-stretching ability, if only a little.

New York Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones (CPT or FLEX)

Jones has looked competent over the past four weeks, and there's an argument he's gotten better over the course of them. Since a disastrous opener, Jones has completed 68% of his throws, with just 7 sacks and a single interception. Yes, he's still dinking and dunking almost exclusively, so he boasts almost no passing upside.

But in fantasy, Jones has always produced a tier above his real-life value thanks to his legs. Only Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Jalen Hurts have more QB rushes than Jones' 34. Jones may top out around 250-260 yards through the air, but he'll add a handful of points on the ground, and a short touchdown run (or two) could swing a Showdown GPP. He's already carried four scoreless times from inside the five-yard line, a trend that should reverse at some point.

Running Back

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (CPT or FLEX)
Eric Gray (FLEX)

Tracy certainly opened eyes last Sunday, turning 18 rushes into 129 yards in place of Devin Singletary. Those weren't inflated numbers, either, driven by one long run: Tracy ripped off gains of 27, 25, 13, and 11 yards. A former wideout, the 209-pound Tracy may not be that effective as teams (like the Bengals) key on him more. But he looks like the clear workhorse right now, well ahead of Grady, who may be the NFL's least efficient all-around back.

Gray actually started last week's game, making two big catches on the opening drive before fumbling near the goal line. That was Gray's fifth career fumble – on just 35 touches – so there's no guarantee he remains in the team's plans. After all, he “boasts” a career 2.4 per-carry average, credited with just a single broken tackle through 18 games.

Wide Receiver

Darius Slayton (CPT or FLEX)
Wan'Dale Robinson (FLEX)

Yes, Slayton is still around, still a Giant, and still vacuuming up targets when starters are injured. With Nabers missing much of the last two weeks, Slayton has turned 16 targets into 11 catches, 178 yards, and a touchdown. Robinson's role didn't increase last week with Nabers out, so we can comfortably view Slayton as Nabers' direct, lower-ceiling backup. Thus, he could easily lead the Giants in targets again, and he boasts significantly more yardage & touchdown upside than Robinson.

Robinson disappointed a bit last week, catching just 6 balls for 36 yards (with a touchdown) in Nabers' absence. But Robinson has never really been an upside play; his career 5.3 aDOT confirms it. He's a PPR floor play regardless of who's in/out of the Giants lineup. He's drawn a 28% target share and can be counted on for a 6- or 7-catch baseline. Just don't expect fireworks.

Tight End

Theo Johnson (FLEX)

It's hard to get excited about a TE who's drawn just a single red-zone target through five games. His 5 targets last week failed to produce anything usable (48 yards).

Under the Radar

None.

Defense & Kicker

Neither defense looks good in what should be a paced-up, high-scoring game. Joe Burrow is on a tear, and Daniel Jones isn't being asked to hold the ball or throw downfield much, so sacks and turnovers are shaky propositions tonight.

Cincinnati's Evan McPherson is an elite kicker, but his Showdown value is tough to nail down. Joe Burrow and the Bengals rarely bog down in the red zone, scoring touchdowns at the league's fifth-highest rate. Besides differentiating in deep, deep Showdown GPPs, I don't see the value in forcing in either kicker.