NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas clearly likes the Ravens’ bounce-back from that 0-2 start. They’re given just about even neutral-site odds – technically, they’re -2.5 thanks to home-field – against the unbeaten Bills. It would be foolish to predict anything but a tight, one-score game that’s decided late, probably by a dazzling quarterback play. To me, that makes it sensible to target Ravens a little more than my gut tells me to. Lamar Jackson looks like the safest overall play, and his weapons look poised to overperform relative to last week.

Injury Report

Both teams are exceptionally healthy tonight.

Captain Consideration

1. Lamar Jackson
2. James Cook
3. Josh Allen
4. Zay Flowers
5. Khalil Shakir

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

• Josh Allen (CPT or FLEX)

Yes, Allen would make for an ideal Showdown player, but you’re not the first one to figure that out. He’ll almost certainly lead the entire pack in roster rate and Captain rate, which means even a solid Josh Allen game wouldn’t help you much. Even a 45-point Captain blowup would only eliminate a small number of guys.

Of course, you don’t want to be one of those small numbers who gets bumped, so you’ll roster him in all but deep GPPs. Allen is an MVP frontrunner, and his matchup this week is tasty; the Ravens have struggled badly against the pass. But Allen is now at the point that he’s not very beneficial to Captain, and he’s unlikely to win you a GPP singlehandedly. You’ll need to be very, very unique elsewhere.

Running Back

• James Cook (CPT or FLEX)
• Ray Davis (FLEX)

The Bills’ full rededication to the ground game has allowed Cook to check off all his critics’ boxes here in 2024. He’s taken 78% of the team’s running back carries prior to garbage time. He’s run the ball inside the five, finding the end zone in Week 2. And he’s made impressive plays through the air, as his profile has always suggested he would. If Allen is the offense’s engine, then Cook is at least the fuel injector, and he’s the second-most likely Bill to erupt. Cook is still smallish, and he still battles Josh Allen for touchdown chances. In other words, the public may still be hesitant on Cook, waiting for the other shoe to drop. Any dip in rostership is welcome, though Cook doesn’t necessarily need it to warrant your Captain slot.

The redraft world regards the rookie Davis as a strong handcuff, and the dynasty world adores him long-term. At the moment, though, his DFS value is tied strictly to garbage time. That makes him an awful cash-game play, but an interesting differentiator in deep, deep GPP tournaments. A Bills blowout could net Davis 8-12 touches and perhaps a touchdown chance.

Wide Receiver

• Khalil Shakir (CPT or FLEX)
• Keon Coleman (FLEX)
• Mack Hollins (FLEX)

Shakir is off to a flawless start here in 2024: 14 targets, 14 receptions. Shakir doesn’t lead the team in snaps – that, shockingly, would be Hollins – but he’s drawn 37% of the wide receiver looks thus far. He’s deeply valued by Josh Allen underneath, and he’s already scored twice from outside the red zone. This passing game is spread fairly thin, but it’s definitely explosive. And there’s a good chance its top weapon, who’s yet to top 72 yards in a game, will go slightly under-rostered tonight. He’ll certainly be under-Captained.

Coleman and Hollins are little more than dart throws. Still, there’s a real chance Coleman will erupt soon: he’s run routes on 54% of his snaps, and he boasts the profile of a prolific touchdown scorer. A shootout could bring several high-leverage throws and touchdown chances. Hollins is valued mostly as a blocker and is far from the radar, even in GPP play.

Tight End

• Dalton Kincaid (FLEX)

Kincaid remains valuable to the Bills, even as they run the ball at a dizzying pace. The fantasy world has been disappointed in just 8 catches, 85 yards, and a single touchdown through 3 games. But he’s absolutely the second-best receiver in this offense, and the team still uses him as such in a number of its packages. A breakout week is coming, and like Shakir, Kincaid will benefit from a great slot matchup tonight.

Under the Radar

• Curtis Samuel (FLEX)

Exercise caution when getting cute with Samuel, who’s hardly seen the field (27% of snaps) and is always a 4-yard curl route from an injury.

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback

• Lamar Jackson (CPT or FLEX)

Don’t overthink Jackson, who, like Josh Allen, plays (and produces at) two positions at once. Jackson is a splash play waiting to happen, and he’ll land on virtually every Showdown roster tonight. You may not Captain him, as it won’t boost you much to do so – but you surely don’t want to be caught without him.

Running Back

• Derrick Henry (CPT or FLEX)
• Justice Hill (FLEX)

Henry’s weekly outlook hasn’t changed in Baltimore: 15-25 carries each week, determined by game flow and not involved much in shootouts or rallies. In Week 1, for instance, he took 5 carries on the opening drive… and finished with just 13. He did not catch a pass, even when the team shifted into comeback mode. Henry’s appeal comes mostly from touchdown upside, as he’s found the end zone four times already. He’s scored on three of his four attempts from inside the five, a rate that will almost surely slow at some point; he typically succeeds on about half of those runs. Henry’s early exploits will land him on most rosters and Captained in many. But any big name who’s this script-dependent makes for a fade in a deep Showdown GPP. He’s just less likely than several others to help much in your Captain slot.

Hill is the third-down back (at the moment), but he simply isn’t used enough to hint at much upside. His snaps have dipped each week thus far, down to just 26 last week, and he’s yet to draw a rush or a target in the red zone.

Wide Receiver

• Zay Flowers (CPT or FLEX)
• Rashod Bateman (FLEX)

Flowers is now the clear alpha in the Ravens air attack, and it’s unclear week to week just what that means (and doesn’t mean) for fantasy. His 25 targets thus far aren’t wildly impressive – 14 wideouts have more, including Cooper Kupp, who left midway through Week 2. Nor are his 5.9 yards per target – he’s sitting 65^th among qualifiers. Still, a 29% target share should always turn your head in selecting a Captain. All the Ravens’ weapons were “hurt,” at least statistically, by their blowout of the Cowboys. It’s hard to hold that positive game script against Flowers, who drew 10 and 11 looks in the first 2 weeks, with a red zone touchdown. Flowers is settling in as the slightly poor man’s Rashee Rice: used plenty across the field, and capable of catching 10+ balls in a shootout.

With just eight catches through three games, Bateman intrigues virtually no one. That and his steep discount make him worthy of some GPP exposure. Bateman ran 78 routes over the first 2 games; at some point, Jackson will take advantage of him while Flowers fights through brackets.

Tight End

• Mark Andrews (CPT or FLEX)
• Isaiah Likely (FLEX)

Once the heartbeat of this pass game, Andrews has produced just 7 catches on 65 yards through 3 weeks. When seeking out plays up the seams, or at the sidelines, it’s been Likely drawing Jackson’s attention. This odd trend, of course, creates a great opportunity to zig from the GPP pack. Likely is very much The New Thing, but he’s drawn just four targets over the past two weeks himself. Expect their roster numbers to be similar tonight, as they boast about the same sheer upside. But Andrews has fallen out of favor with much of the public, and it’s unlikely he’ll be Captained much, given all the attractive names elsewhere. It’s also unlikely he just isn’t very good at football anymore. There are many worse bets out there than a bounce-back game for Andrews, who drew 25% of the team’s targets from 2021-23.

Under the Radar

• Nelson Agholor (FLEX)

…Maybe? Agholor comes nearly free, and he’s second on the team to Likely in yards per route.

Kickers & Defenses

The Baltimore defense simply isn’t playing up to its usual standard, so it’s definitely off the radar tonight. They’ve been gashed for 291, 276, and 379 yards thus far at 8.1 per throw, and Josh Allen has been absurdly efficient in his own right. There’s a real chance, however, that the Buffalo defense boosts a handful of gutsy GPP rosters. They’ve already registered 11 sacks and 6 takeaways, and they’ve done so while blitzing at the lowest rate in the league. Jackson will have to be at his diagnostic best to (a) avoid turnovers and (b) produce his signature splash plays.

That’s not to mention – the Bills defense has been dominant in the red zone, allowing just 4 of 12 trips to end in touchdowns. That makes Justin Tucker mildly interesting, even if he hasn’t looked like his usual self (0 of 2 from 50+ yards).