Dalton Kincaid Buzz Is Everywhere.
If you read my work on the regular, you know Kincaid was my primary bet to threaten Mike Ditka’s rookie production record last year and Sam LaPorta was my dark horse candidate.
It was LaPorta who nearly unseated Ditka as the reigning leader for rookie production in the history of the position, but Kincaid’s production – 91 targets, 73 catches, 673 yards, and 2 scores – quietly put him among the all-time rookie top-12 at the position. It’s one of the reasons why Kincaid is the hot analyst pick for bigger things to come.
If you read my pre-draft scouting report on Dalton Kincaid, you know in great detail why his talents give him the potential to become an elite fantasy tight end. If you aren’t a Rookie Scouting Portfolio subscriber, this article will help you learn more about Kincaid’s talents as well as his potential for fantasy stardom in the Buffalo Bills’ revamped offense.
Talent is only part of the equation. How the scheme and the supporting personnel are woven into the equation will help you gain an accurate perspective of Kincaid’s fantasy floor and ceiling. Even if you decide Dalton Kincaid’s value won’t be worth the buzz after reading this article, you’ll learn what makes an elite fantasy tight end in today’s NFL.
A lot of the supporting info I’m using about Dalton Kincaid’s potential value in the Bills' scheme and what it’s projected to have in common with other schemes came from Erik Turner’s podcast at Cover 1. They did good enough work that I didn’t need to research this part of it on my own. I recommend you become a regular audience for their work if you like the nuts and bolts of football and/or the Bills.
Dalton Kincaid: Is He An Elite Fantasy Talent?
Yes. Elite fantasy tight ends bring specific athletic talents and technical skills to the position before we even examine how a team uses them.
Acceleration, Short-Area Quickness, and Route Running.
While Dalton Kincaid can win downfield and threaten specific zones in the third level of the defense, he’s not an elite speedster at the position. It doesn’t matter. Long speed is a luxury, but it’s not a foundation for dynamic production at the tight-end position.
Kincaid isn’t alone here. Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and Travis Kelce aren’t elite speedsters, either. If a tight end has a range of 4.5-4.75 seconds in the 40-yard dash, he’s within the spectrum of productive starters at the position.
Few tight ends are standalone third-level threats in the NFL with sub-4.5 speed. Few wide receivers are standalone third-level threats in the NFL, and that requires sub-4.4 speed. Kincaid and the other tight ends mentioned don’t need to do this. You’ll rarely see tight ends beating primary cornerback on go routes up the boundary, much less coaches putting these tight ends on an island with a shutdown corner for that specific purpose.
Kincaid’s ability to reach his top speed quickly (acceleration) and change direction suddenly are the most important facets of athletic explosion for the position. Most routes are suspenseful short stories designed to make the opposing defender think he has anticipated the right outcome, only to learn he was wrong. While speed can help influence these wrong decisions, you only need a baseline amount of it to force opposing defenders to commit to a position that will ultimately earn the pass catcher open space.
Kincaid meets those baselines as an athlete, and more importantly, he’s a refined route runner who knows how to use these physical tools to get open. It’s another facet of the position that Kincaid, LaPorta, Kelce, and Andrews have in common. There are several route-running skills where they excel:
- Releasing against physical coverage at the line of scrimmage to earn an advantageous position to begin the route. Kincaid is already skilled here and on track to get better.
- Using the stem – the initial phase of the route leading up to the break – to manipulate zone and man-to-man defenders in the wrong direction based on the position of the defender and the path of the route design. Kincaid does this as well as any tight end in the NFL.
- Employing pacing variations within the stem to play up the most suspenseful parts of the route and fool defenders. Kincaid also excels here.
- Using the eyes, head, shoulders, and hips to fool the defender into anticipating the wrong path. Kincaid does this well.
- Possessing the hip, knee, and ankle mobility to execute effective breaks. Kincaid is a mobile athlete.
- Having the technical expertise to use that lower-body mobility at top speed and generate sudden and sharp breaks with a snap that earns separation against tight coverage. You guessed it, Kincaid is skilled here.
- Earning optimal position against the defender relative to the trajectory of the ball. This is where Kincaid has the potential to become the best in the NFL at his position.
Kincaid, Kittle, LaPorta, Andrews, and Kelce possess all of these skills at a baseline level of an NFL starter. Even a slower Rob Gronkowski and the geriatric versions of Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez could perform all of these facets of route running well after their brief windows of vertical prowess ended.
Tracking and Catching the Football
Kincaid had elite skills at the college level in these areas, and last year, he showed early signs of developing into an elite pass-catcher in the NFL. Kincaid and his hopeful peers who are elite producers at the position have the tools to win targets against tight coverage:
- Effective timing with when to leave their feet.
- Optimal attack to earn the football early and efficiently.
- Skill to secure and position the body away from the defender and the ball from the ground.
- Winning the ball against contact.
- Winning the ball with defenders in their sightline to the ball.
- Winning after making unexpected and/or late adjustments with targets.
Kincaid demonstrated all of these skills last year. If he can sustain consistency with these tools as he earns more targets--especially in selected scenarios where he’ll be seeing better defenders in tighter coverage—elite production could follow.
Yards After the Catch (YAC)
Kincaid frequently makes the first man miss or breaks the first tackle attempt. In this respect, YAC has the most value.
Breakaway runs are exciting, but they’re not common for any tight end. Kittle may earn 2-3 times as many as Kincaid during a season, but they will still only amount to a handful.
When isolating the skills from the results, Kincaid, like many of the best YAC tight ends, consistently extends the length of the play. Even adding 3-5 yards from the catch has value because these gains either move the chains or generate enviable down-and-distance situations for subsequent play-calls is the priority.
Why isolate the skills from the results? Because Kincaid’s talent is only one underlying facet contributing to his rookie production. Without examining the scheme and supporting personnel, as well as its recent changes, we won’t get a complete and accurate picture of what Kincaid can become.
It’s time to examine how the Bills will use him moving forward and why the buzz has merit.
Dalton Kincaid’s Scheme: '23 and '24
Dalton Kincaid was the No.2 receiver for the Bills last year, but he didn’t begin to earn the production volume that got him there until the second half of the season when Stefon Diggs’ production declined. This was the big fantasy headline surrounding the Bills offense during the final half of 2023.
If you only read the headlines and skim the details, you’re like many fantasy GMs who think Diggs has gotten old and was in steep decline based on the stats. Stats have context, but we too often ignore context. In this case, the context for determining the value for Diggs and Dalton Kincaid moving forward.
Diggs was visibly upset with Allen on the sidelines during the 2022 playoffs. That rancor carried over to the spring and early summer of 2023.
There are multiple reasons attributed to strain—including off-the-record gossip from credible NFL media who know some stories could blow up their careers and aren’t worth investigating further. The root issue is that Diggs lost belief in Allen as a leader.
Diggs came to Buffalo because of Allen’s talent and potential to win a Super Bowl. Adding Dalton Kincaid to a Diggs-led receiving corps could have put Buffalo over the top with its current scheme.
The move came too late. At some point, Diggs saw enough from Allen—on and off the field—to develop concerns that Allen leans too much on his physical skills and may lack that razor’s edge of obsession with the game to elevate the team beyond its current status in a strong conference.
Allen has been a huge part of the Bills' ascension so it seems illogical on the surface. At the same time, the differences between Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes II are minuscule enough to come down to a handful of plays. Dalton Kincaid’s pairing with Diggs was supposed to close that gap. However, the gravity of the plays Diggs didn’t see Allen make, plus what he may have potentially seen behind the scenes, led to a strain between them.
Diggs could easily be wrong, but I’m just sharing the rationale I’ve heard attributed to Diggs based on what we saw and what cannot be reported in detail. According to Diggs, the change in the scheme was also when Diggs knew a trade was on the horizon.
Another way of looking at it is that Diggs believed he was the best answer in the passing game. While he was right for the short-term, long-term it would stunt the offense and Allen’s growth. The Bills knew they had to prepare to move on from Diggs, regardless of what they’ll admit to publicly.
What is substantiated is that the Bills scheme moved on away from Diggs as the primary option when Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey during the year. It meant Dalton Kincaid had to make a quick transition from being a near-future answer to being an immediate answer as a primary receiver in the offense.
When Buffalo handed the reins to Brady, we saw several changes that helped Dalton Kincaid in 2023 and bode well for his production in 2024. Stefon Diggs was no longer the player the offense ran through. Brady’s goal is to make the offense more multi-dimensional and difficult to defend, which means a greater distribution of targets to several receivers.
According to Erik Turner at Cover1, Dalton Kincaid’s team target percentage was over 15 percent in Brady’s iteration of the offense. Another notable production increase with Brady at the helm of the offense was Dalton Kincaid’s average depth of target jumped from 6 to 9 yards.
These developments put Dalton Kincaid on par with schemes that have tight ends as production leaders in the passing offense—including Kansas City, Detroit, San Francisco, and Baltimore. And if they didn’t completely put Kincaid there, they have set the table for it to be a reasonable expectation for it to happen in 2024.
Dalton Kincaid’s Surrounding Talent
Last year’s production and the changes to the surrounding talent indicate that Dalton Kincaid has a good shot of becoming one of the top two options in 2024. The top tight ends are one of the two most-featured players in their respective passing games.
Obvious statement. Less obvious is that the offenses with top-producing tight ends rarely have a true primary wide receiver in recent years. A primary threat is a wide receiver who has a match-up advantage against shut-down corners playing press-man coverage at all three levels of the defense.
Dalton Kincaid’s surrounding talent fits what we’re seeing around the league among the top producers at TE during the past two years:
- Sam LaPorta: Amon-Ra St. Brown is not a true primary threat.
- Evan Engram: Neither Calvin Ridley nor Christian Kirk are true primary receivers.
- Travis Kelce: Not since Tyreek Hill.
- T.J. Hockenson: A notable exception.
- David Njoku: A majority of his production came in 29 percent of the season with Joe Flacco.
- George Kittle: Until Brandon Aiyuk’s breakout, the 49ers lacked a true primary wideout.
- Mark Andrews: Zay Flowers isn’t there yet. Marquise Brown was a good secondary option.
Dalton Kincaid and the Bills’ receiving personnel bear more similarities to Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Baltimore. Those teams account for 7 of the 12 tight ends who delivered top-6 fantasy production during the past two years. We’ll delve into this soon.
If the Bills adopt more schematic similarities to the Lions, Chiefs, 49ers, and Ravens, Dalton Kincaid will be the primary beneficiary and make a statistical leap that puts him within range of top-five fantasy production. Before delving into this in the next section, it doesn’t take much to see that the Bills lack a proven primary option at wide receiver.
Here are the three most likely options to contend with Dalton Kincaid for the lead in receiving volume.
- Curtis Samuel: A capable inside option with speed to work outside but not a proven primary threat as a route runner. He’ll be moved around to get strong matchups, and much of this movement will benefit Dalton Kincaid.
- Khalil Shakir: An emerging talent with contested-catch flair and skill after the catch, he’s unproven as a man-to-man option against shut-down corners.
- Dawson Knox: An excellent athlete with skills to win the ball in the air, Knox and Kincaid both block well on the backside of formations and in space, but Knox is more valuable as an inline blocker. Dalton Kincaid is a more versatile route runner. Think of Knox as a better Brock Wright.
These options probably won’t threaten Dalton Kincaid’s production but can offer situational value.
- Keon Coleman: The rookie may eventually prove he can win outside as a complete route runner, but he projects as a better inside threat who can earn production outside with schemed matchup advantages.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: A deep threat with a limited route tree and unreliable mitts for a primary option.
- Mack Hollins: A journeyman secondary receiver who wins vertical routes near the boundary.
- Chase Claypool: Think of a combination of Valdes-Scantling and Hollins with good size and limited route and catch skills.
The worst case for Dalton Kincaid is that Samuel or Shakir can elevate their games to a primary role and relegate Kincaid to the No.3 spot. More likely, Samuel and Shakir have ceilings along the lines of what we saw from Jacksonville’s duo of Ridley and Kirk – two secondary options who complement each other well enough to deliver fantasy value. Samuel would be Ridley, Shakir would be Kirk, and Dalton Kincaid would still have a shot to deliver like Engram.
Based on what we’ve seen from the Bills’ personnel, it’s more likely that Dalton Kincaid be one of the top two options in this passing offense because the Bills already showed last year how they were beginning to transition away from Diggs under Brady. All of the free-agent receivers the Bills acquired this offseason are skilled blockers and have experience with rub routes, which is a staple of the scheme changes detailed below.
Elevate Dalton Kincaid’s Production with Scheme
The Bills wide receiver personnel lacking a true primary threat share commonalities with the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, and the pre-breakout Aiyuk iteration of the 49ers. All of these teams also share similarities with schematic and personnel tendencies. Dalton Kincaid’s talent versus his surrounding talent resembles the dynamic between the top tight ends and their respective teammates.
These teams, as well as the Rams, Dolphins, and Texans, earned strong production from condensed sets with heavy personnel. For the less familiar, heavy alignments with fewer wide receivers and more offensive linemen, tight ends, and or fullbacks. Condensed sets are the opposite of spread sets—players are lined up tighter to the line and not as wide from the line.
According to Cover 1’s Erik Turner, all of these teams except for the Texans were top-10 producers in EPA (Expected Points Average) per play last year. These sets favor tight-end production in the passing game, Dalton Kincaid especially. Last year, the Bills used more spread sets with the Ken Dorsey offense, and they left big plays on the field inside the five.
Everything about condensed heavy sets looks similar pre-snap, but the small layers of differences post-snap generate a lot of scenarios for defenders to guess wrong on run or pass. Even when defenders guess right on pass, the type of routes being run can have enough wrinkles that build off each other and force wrong guesses. These small route details favor Dalton Kincaid’s strengths in the passing game.
There are several reasons why condensed heavy sets are successful in today’s NFL. Teams have built their defenses with smaller and lighter personnel to defend spread offenses.
Offenses with bigger personnel can overpower these defenses with the running game. They force limitations on the type of coverages that defenses can use successfully.
This makes the offense’s lives easier because the condensed looks generate favorable matchups for tight ends like Dalton Kincaid, including mismatches with defensive ends—especially in the red zone.
Watch how Sam LaPorta earns this matchup advantage in Ben Johnson’s offense.
This is also something we saw with the 49ers, Rams, Chiefs, Texans, and Dolphins. While matchups with defensive ends will be rare, Dalton Kincaid earning mismatches against linebackers will be more frequent because condensed sets should generate enough success on the ground for opposing defenses to use 3-4 linebackers.
The addition of rookie running back Ray Davis, a powerful runner with skills between the tackles, is another indication the Bills want to use condensed heavy sets and force opposing defenses to go heavy, especially in the red zone.
This also will lead to more play-action opportunities for Dalton Kincaid and he’ll earn even more favorable matchups because the play-action game fits in seamlessly with where he wins best as a blocker. Delayed releases and chip releases with play action are methods the 49ers and Ravens use frequently with Kittle and Andrews.
Dalton Kincaid should see an increase in play-action targets. According to Cover 1’s Turner, Kincaid was eighth among NFL tight ends in play-action targets last year after Joe Brady took over the coordinator role.
Play-action also exploits quick-hitting plays, especially when leveraging quarterback movement. Both play-action and bootlegs are strengths of Josh Allen’s game. These plays will afford Dalton Kincaid space to operate after the catch and Utah used featured Kincaid a lot on these concepts.
Combine the heavy condensed sets with play-action and you get more rub routes and mismatch advantages that can help all of the receivers, win man-to-man routes with schemed looks. Instead of forcing Allen to lean on his athletic ability to a fault, the offense generates opportunities to find the best match-ups pre-snap and distribute the ball to open space.
This increase in mismatches should also translate to Dalton Kincaid earning more targets in the intermediate and vertical passing games. Allen loves throwing the sail route and receiver with height, length, and tracking skill like Kincaid excels here because it can be a contested-catch type of route, especially when layering some fade-like adjustments to it.
Many of the routes Dalton Kincaid will run will have minor adjustments that will encourage more tight-window throws coming his way. Cover 1’s Turner noted that Kincaid caught 5 of 9 contested catches last year. While that’s a low sample, Kincaid was a rookie and a rapport with contested catches and scramble-drill targets are two areas that take the longest for quarterbacks and receivers to develop.
Dalton Kincaid excelled in these areas at Utah and showed promise in limited work with both facets of receiving as a rookie. Expect Kincaid to thrive or at least show signs of getting there in 2024.
Production Expectations for Dalton Kincaid In 2024
I have Dalton Kincaid projected as the third-ranked tight end this year at the top of my second tier of options at the position and the smaller gap between him and my No.7 option, Mark Andrews, than between Kincaid and Kyle Pitts, my No.2.
Turner and the Cover 1 crew have Dalton Kincaid projected for 110 targets. They don’t believe any player in the Bills offense will reach 150-plus targets in the Brady offense. This is a departure from the Diggs era where the receiver earned at least 156 targets every year as a Bill.
I agree with that overall assessment, but I have Dalton Kincaid earning 135 targets, which would have placed him second in the NFL last year to Evan Engram’s 143. While higher than Turner’s assessment and equal to what I expect for Kelce in Kansas City, I’m betting the baseline for Kincaid’s volume is no worse than 120, considering that’s what we saw from Kelce, LaPorta, and Hockenson last year.
Also, Turner is likely basing his projection on Dalton Kincaid’s average targets per game when Brady took over the offense. If you project those targets to a 17-game season, you get 111.
I’m adding a little more than two targets per game to last year’s rate because Diggs is gone, the schematic changes Brady imposed last year should have sharper execution this year, and we should see an increase in rapport between Dalton Kincaid and Allen.
I have Kincaid catching 68.9 percent of his passes. Compared to last year’s top-five catch rates at the position, this projection is nearly 8 percent lower than No.5 option Mark Andrews (76.5) and 11 percent lower than NFL leader Travis Kelce (80).
It’s a conservative projection for Dalton Kincaid and Allen who are still learning how to work with each other and that still equates to 93 catches. Kincaid averaged 9.2 yards per catch last year. That rate was 10.1 during the final eight weeks of the season.
Factoring in an offense that should leverage play action and heavy condensed sets to generate a higher depth per target, the departure of Diggs, and the overall improvement we should see with Dalton Kincaid and his rapport with Allen, I’m expecting 11.3 yards per catch from Kincaid in 2024.
That figure is on the aggressive side for Dalton Kincaid, considering that 7 of the top 12 fantasy producers earned between 10.1-10.9 yards per catch. Still, half of the top 12 fantasy producers during the final eight weeks of the season average more than 11.3 yards per catch, it’s not an outrageous expectation.
Neither is projecting Dalton Kincaid to earn six touchdowns—7 of the top 12 fantasy producers had at least 5 or 6 scores and that includes teams that used condensed heavy sets to leverage tight end production—Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Houston.
The bottom line on Dalton Kincaid: 135 targets, 93 catches, 1050 yards, 11.29 yards per catch, and 6 scores. He’s projected to earn 22 percent of the passing game. This percentage matches Turner’s expectation and I did my projections six weeks before I listened to Turner’s analysis yesterday.
Is Dalton Kincaid A Good Fantasy Value?
As of mid-July, Dalton Kincaid is TE5 in average draft position reports and the 55th pick overall with a high average pick of 42 and 67 as the low-end average. Most reporting sites have him between picks 50-53.
Relative to my projection, Dalton Kincaid is technically a value because I have him third on my TE board. It’s more important to look at other factors. As I mentioned earlier, Kincaid is closer to my No.7 TE in projected value, Mark Andrews, than he is to my No.2 TE, Kyle Pitts.
Andrews’ ADP is currently 46 as TE4, Pitts’ ADP is 65 as TE7, and George Kittle is 63 as TE6. In this context, Dalton Kincaid isn’t the only value at the position to take within this range because Andrews and Kittle are more proven players in offenses with experience running the schemes that the Bills are expected to run.
Pitts is also expected to work in a Sean McVay-influenced offense that could employ more condensed heavy sets as well. As is the case with Dalton Kincaid and the Bills, we’ll see if this happens. Still, we know Pitts has the ceiling to deliver league-leading production if the scheme and talent are there to support him.
Strictly basing Dalton Kincaid’s value on his peers in a similar range of the draft, he’s not a priority pick here. If we examine the other players in ranges we find Kincaid, Andrews, Pitts, and Kittle may help us more.
Considering the upside Amari Cooper, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, and Alvin Kamara, Andrews seems pricier in his range than considering Dalton Kincaid versus George Pickens, Keenan Allen, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, Aaron Jones, and David Montgomery. I’d prefer Kincaid.
Dalton Kincaid also looks like a more valuable selection for me than Pitts and Kittle. A selection of either of these tight ends means by-passing Joe Burrow, Malik Nabers, Jayden Reed, Dak Prescott, Chris Godwin, Najee Harris, Jordan Love, and Rashee Rice.
These players' values may change dramatically in August, but you see the merit of the exercise I’m performing to determine if Dalton Kincaid is the right play for you at his price. Right now, I’d say he’s my favorite value of the tight ends in that block.
In Summary: What Makes A Top Fantasy TE?
That block Dalton Kincaid’s ADP is located is an important one. It includes Kittle, Pitts, Andrews, Engram, and Trey McBride. All five are expected to be one of the top two options for their offenses and at least three of them – Kittle, Andrews, and likely Pitts – will have schematic tendencies that exploit their skills in a big way.
After Engram, the rest of the tight ends lack the combination of scheme and talent to generate elite production ceilings. (TE9) Jake Ferguson is versatile but not a match-up threat like Dalton Kincaid and the rest of the early-round block. (TE10) David Njoku is a good athlete but not a great man-to-man route runner, and his quarterback and scheme are question marks. (TE11) Dallas Goedert lacks the scheme.
(TE12) T.J. Hockenson and (TE13) Brock Bowers have the talent and the surrounding talent at receiver, but quarterback is a massive question mark. They present good value as hedges for Dalton Kincaid later on. So does (TE14) Dalton Schultz because of his high floor despite lacking an elite ceiling as a talent.
Examining Dalton Kincaid in this way gives us clarity with the tight end landscape in the NFL and what the most productive tight ends possess:
- Intermediate man-to-man route acumen.
- Contested-catch skill.
- A play-action game with good blockers at WR.
- Condensed heavy sets that create matchup advantages.
- A lack of a prototypical primary wide receiver.
If you’re not going to take a shot on Dalton Kincaid, understand that the safest bets at the position are going in the same range or higher.
If your scoring rules indicate that there’s a low margin of difference between this block of safe bets and the later-round options with lower ceilings but compelling floors, then by all means, veer from this plan.
If not, know that if you’re not taking Dalton Kincaid, you’ll need to take one of his peers soon after.
Good luck.
