Don’t draft a quarterback early in your 2024 Superflex Draft. We'll show you why.
The simple answer: Math.
More specifically, it's Supply and Demand and the math that determines the most important thing in your draft: Value.
The Average Draft Position (ADP) of the top quarterbacks is not justified when considering the tried-and-true principles of Value-Based Drafting (VBD). Unless a top quarterback falls to you multiple spots below his current ADP, you should target elite running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds of your Superflex draft.
Our Footballguys projections, which have consistently proven to be among the best in the industry, look very different in 2024 than in the past. The gap in fantasy production between the top quarterbacks and those who will be available later in drafts is projected to be significantly smaller this season. Your draft strategy should reflect these changes. You gain a significant competitive advantage by adjusting to the new reality quicker than your opponents. Here's why we recommend taking a new approach this season.
Dominating 2024 Superflex Drafts
The Basics of Value-Based Drafting
Joe Bryant introduced Value-Based Drafting (VBD) to the fantasy football world way back in 1996. The VBD system revolves around two things:
- Making detailed statistical projections for every draftable player. Don't worry if you don't feel up to making your own stat projections; we'll provide everything you need at Footballguys.com.
- Combining those detailed statistical projections with positional baselines to assign a value (VBD) to each player.
The guiding principle of VBD is the idea that a player's fantasy value is not determined by the number of points he scores but by how much he outscores the other players at his position.
Two vs. Two Examples
We can easily get deep into the math and theory of Value-Based Drafting, but it is easiest to illustrate with some examples based on actual decisions you may face in your 2024 Superflex Drafts.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Josh Allen
If you are lucky enough to have the 1.01 in your Superflex draft, you may be debating between Christian McCaffrey and Josh Allen. A good starting point for any fantasy decision is to look at fantasy projections. The Footballguys Consensus averages projections from some of the best and most accomplished fantasy analysts in the industry. Interestingly, McCaffrey and Allen project for almost identical fantasy production -- 22.6 and 22.5 fantasy points per game, respectively. If you look only at raw fantasy production, the decision between the two is a toss-up.
Drafting a winning team requires a deeper analysis than projecting fantasy points, however. We also need to contextualize that production and understand what it means for each position. Every position will have a different baseline. Before explaining how those baselines are determined, let's instead start by looking at it through the lens of a simple Option A or Option B choice. Here are two different ways you could spend your 1st and 7th-round picks in your Superflex Draft:
Even without calculating positional baselines or doing any fancy math, we can simply look at the combined PPG projections from the two pairs. We project McCaffrey and Deshaun Watson to combine for 40.9 fantasy points per game. We project Allen and James Conner to combine for 35.1 fantasy points per game. Drafting McCaffrey early and filling one of your QB/Superflex spots later gives you a massive weekly advantage.
This is VBD in a nutshell. The numbers strongly point to McCaffrey outscoring the other running backs by more points than Allen will outscore the other quarterbacks.
Justin Jefferson vs. C.J. Stroud
Let's keep going with another example. Let's say you have the 1.08 in your Superflex Draft and are deciding between a wide receiver and a top quarterback. In this example, let's assume that if we pass on Stroud, we will instead wait until the 9th round to fill one of our starting QB/Superflex spots. Similarly, if we do choose Stroud in the 1st, we will assume we wait until the 9th round to fill one of our starting WR/Flex spots.
Both Jefferson and Stroud project for almost identical fantasy production in a league with typical scoring. The advantage to drafting Jefferson is that you can easily add a quarterback who projects for 16 or 17 fantasy PPG later in the draft (like Geno Smith). On the other hand, you cannot find a wide receiver projected for 16+ fantasy PPG late in the draft. In fact, Footballguys projects just eight wide receivers to score 16+ fantasy points per game, and every single one of them currently has an ADP inside the Top 20 overall in Superflex drafts.
Replacement-level quarterback scoring is high. That is especially true in 2024 (more on this below). The baseline for quarterback scoring that we use to formulate VBD is higher than at any other position. This means that a quarterback like C.J. Stroud scoring almost 20 fantasy PPG will give us a much smaller overall edge against the competition than the same 20 fantasy PPG would give us from a wide receiver like Justin Jefferson.
These early-round draft decisions matter. They can be the difference between opening your Yahoo! fantasy app on Sunday morning and seeing you are a five-point favorite and opening it and seeing you are an underdog in your matchup.
With that quick introduction to VBD principles in mind, let's dive into Superflex draft strategy and rankings. Using average draft position (ADP) data from Sleeper Superflex drafts, this is what the first round of a Superflex Draft typically looks like:
In the table above, you can see that Josh Allen is typically going off the board first (ADP). However, he ranks fourth in our VBD Rankings (Rank). Allen projects for 22.5 fantasy PPG (PPG). Subtracting his projection of 22.5 by our positional baseline of 16.9, we know Allen should outscore a replacment-level quarterback by 5.6 fantasy PPG (True Value). Our proprietary VBD calculation goes a step beyond this and includes positional injury rates and projected games played adjustments. Josh Allen's Superflex Value is 129.0 (VBD). This is how many fantasy points he will outscore a baseline quarterback by. We can compare Allen's ADP (1) to his VBD ranking (4) and conclude that Allen is going three spots earlier than he should. This is reflected by his ADP Value of -3 (ADP Value).
The big-picture insight here comes from that final ADP Value column. Every single quarterback who is currently being drafted in the first round should be going later. Every single non-quarterback should be going earlier in drafts. If your league follows ADP trends, you should be focused on drafting a running back or wide receiver with your first pick.
Using our tried-and-true Value-Based Drafting methods, here is what the first round of a 2024 Superflex Draft should look like.
When to Target Quarterbacks
We can see in the tables above that the ADP Value is negative for quarterbacks in the first round. What about the rest of the draft? We can compare our VBD-based rankings to ADP for all quarterbacks. When doing so, this is what we find:
The trend is unmistakable. There is very little value to be had in the first couple of rounds. The sharp move is to lock up elite positional players early. On the other hand, there is massive value at the quarterback position outside of the Top 50. You can put together a monster team by staying patient and targeting quarterback after the first four or five rounds.
Why 2024 is Different for Superflex
VBD principles have been around for a long time. For the most part, they have become the industry standard and generally match up neatly with ADP. Why, then, are we seeing a relatively big gap between our VBD rankings and ADP in Superflex this year?
Part of the answer is that the general public is still not quite as good at incorporating VBD principles in novel scoring formats, which includes Superflex for many. However, there is a bigger reason that is specific to the 2024 season.
Put simply, (1) quarterback looks deeper than ever with quality options, and (2) there is less separation between the top quarterbacks and the rest of the pack.
Here are the Footballguys consensus projections for quarterbacks in 2024 compared to last season:
As you can see, the very top quarterbacks going into 2023 were projected more highly than the top quarterbacks are as we enter 2024 (Value here equals fantasy points per game). In addition, the quarterback depth stands out. We have 27 quarterbacks projected to score 16.5+ fantasy points this season. That number was just 21 last season. In 2024, you can actually wait and be one of the last in your league to draft your QB2 and still get a quality starter.
We can also take these projections and compare them to the positional baselines and see how True Value at the position stacks up in 2024 compared to 2023.
The above graph makes clear that something has fundamentally changed when it comes to quarterback value in Superflex. Last season, the top quarterbacks were projected to be extremely valuable. The Value of each of the top three quarterbacks last season was 8+. No quarterback this season projects for a Value above 5.6.
In addition, the higher baseline due to this season's extreme quarterback depth helps to lower the true value of all the quarterbacks.
Dominating your 2024 Superflex drafts will be easier if you understand and adjust to these positional dynamics using the principles of Value-Based Drafting.
