The time has come—after 14 weeks of lineup decisions and waiver claims and trade offers and nail-biting finishes, the fantasy football regular season has come to its end.
For the vast majority of fantasy managers still playing in Week 15, the playoffs are here. And that means one thing.
Mistakes are now death.
Pleasant, huh?
It may be macabre, but it's also the truth. Every game from here out is single elimination. The next loss is the last one of the year. Make one error setting your lineup and leave points on the bench and that's that. Ho Ho Ho, you suck, loser.
Okay, that was just mean.
Now, no one has to tell fantasy managers to start Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Or Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Or Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. But not every decision is so obvious. Sometimes, the margin between two players is razor-thin. It's a coin flip. A close call.
And coming out on the right side of those is how teams move on to Week 16.
Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.
Here goes nothing.
Close Call: Jared Goff, Detroit (QB13) vs. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay (QB15)
The Case for Goff: That the Los Angeles Rams threw in a first-rounder to get rid of Goff in the Matthew Stafford trade a few years ago is mind-boggling in hindsight. If Goff's numbers were gaudier, he'd be a legitimate MVP candidate. Goff's 25 touchdown passes are fifth in the league, and no NFC quarterback has a higher passer rating.
Goff has a bevy of offensive weapons at his disposal. One of the best offensive lines in the game in front of him. The 30-year-old is ninth in fantasy points for the season at his position, and while the Bills pass defense is no joke, this game has the highest over/under of Week 15 at DraftKings—by a sizable margin.
The Case for Mayfield: As good as Goff has been in 2024, there hasn't been a bigger surprise at quarterback in the NFL than Mayfield—he's fourth in the league in passing yards with 3,329, and there isn't a signal-caller in the NFC who has thrown more touchdown passes this year. Mayfield's also sixth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points.
Mayfield doesn't quite have the weaponry available to him that Goff does, but the 29-year-old managed to maintain decent production even after Chris Godwin and Mike Evans went down. Evans is back now, and with Tampa back in first place in the NFC South, the Buccaneers can't afford to take their foot off the gas this week against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Pick: Goff. Mayfield draws the better matchup this week, although neither Los Angeles nor Buffalo are especially favorable. But Sunday's Super Bowl preview has shootout written all over it—and Matthew Stafford showed a week ago that the Bills can be had through the air.
Close Call: James Cook, Buffalo (RB21) vs. Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jr., NY Giants (RB22)
The Case for Cook: With about 300 yards over the season's last month, Cook will surpass 1,000 yards on the ground for the second straight season. He's averaging a rock-solid 4.7 yards per carry for the second year in a row. And it doesn't hurt that the former Georgia standout plays for one of the most potent offenses in the league.
The problem for both of these young backs in Week 15 is that their matchups, um, suck. The Lions are one of six NFL teams surrendering less than 95 yards per game on the ground. Fantasy-wise things are that much worse—Detroit is dead last in the NFC in PPR points allowed to running backs—just 16.5 per game.
The Case for Tracy: Not a lot has gone right for the Giants this season, but New York appears to have found something in Tracy—the rookie has emerged as New York's lead back, averaging 4.7 yards a pop and showing real explosiveness. Fumbles have been an issue, but the fifth-round pick out of Purdue has a chance to put his stamp on the Giants backfield entering the offseason.
However, just like Cook Tracy will be fighting for every yard this week—the Ravens are one of the league's worst pass defenses, but also one of the league's best run defenses. As a matter of fact, Baltimore's 82.7 yards allowed on the ground per game tops the NFL, and the Ravens have given up the ninth-fewest PPR points to backs this season.
The Verdict: Cook. There admittedly isn't a number or metric to point to here. Cook is just a more proven player playing on an exponentially better offense. Cook's lack of touches of late is genuinely concerning. But not as worrisome as the odds that the Giants get blown out and abandon the run game altogether.
Close Call: Sincere McCormick, Las Vegas (RB30) vs. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville (RB32)
The Case for McCormick: At this point in a lost season, the Raiders are trying to salvage what they can. And after rushing for 78 yards on 15 carries last week, McCormick has earned the starting job at running back, according to head coach Antonio Pierce.
"He deserves it. Last week, he was running his tail off," Pierce told reporters. "So, keep running it, keep pushing those numbers up, see if we can get him to 100."
The Atlanta Falcons have a better record this year than the Raiders, but of late neither team has played especially well. The Falcons have also struggled against the run—Atlanta has surrendered just over 120 yards a game on the ground and given up the eighth-most PPR points this season to running backs.
The Case for Bigsby: Bigsby didn't exactly set the world on fire last week on a per-carry basis—18 carries for 55 yards. But the young back scored the only touchdown of last week's win over the Tennessee Titans, and perhaps most importantly for fantasy managers, Bigsby out-touched Travis Etienne Jr. 19-8.
Of course, Etienne also turned his 8 touches into 70 total yards, adding at least some uncertainty to a backfield already brimming with it. But it appears that Bigsby is Jacksonville's lead back, and the Jags continue their tomato can tour this week with a matchup against Aaron "He Still Plays Football?" Rodgers and the New York Jets.
The Verdict: Bigsby—begrudgingly. McCormick was the better player last week. He has the better matchup. Most of the arrows are pointed in his direction. But with Alexander Mattison off the injury report, Pierce's comments about McCormick have to be taken with a grain of salt. Getting jobbed in the last game of the week is the sort of defeat one doesn't forget. It would also be very Raiders.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia (WR36) vs. Keenan Allen, Chicago (WR37)
The Case for Smith: The Eagles keep winning, but it hasn't been with the pass—Jalen Hurts has barely thrown for 225 yards in the last two games combined. As one might expect, that lack of passing hasn't sat well with Smith and A.J. Brown, with the former telling reporters it's important that Philly get back on track offensively.
"I think we can do a lot better," said Smith. "Pass game we can be a lot better ... We didn't play up to our standard."
Sunday's showdown with the Steelers isn't a great matchup. But Smith's right—the Eagles need to ramp up the passing attack. This week has the makings of a "squeaky wheel" game for Brown and Smith—and a concerted effort by the Eagles to throw on the Steelers.
The Case for Allen: Allen has put fantasy managers through quite the ride this season. There have been multiple disappearing acts, especially early in the season. But there have also been a few huge games. That includes back on November 24, when Allen caught nine passes for 86 yards and a touchdown in the Bears' overtime loss to Minnesota in Chicago.
Allen isn't exactly the first wide receiver to have his way with Minnesota's secondary, either. The Vikings lead the NFC in run defense at 87.2 yards per game, but the pass defense sits 29th in the league. If the Bears have any chance of snapping their seven-game skid this week in Minneapolis, it will be throwing the football.
The Verdict: Allen. This is a matter of forgetting what we thought we knew in August and remembering what we do know in December. The Vikings can be thrown on. Odds are good that the Bears will be playing from behind. And Allen topped 20 PPR points against Minnesota less than a month ago.
Close Call: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta (TE17) vs. Noah Gray, Kansas City (TE18)
The Case for Pitts: Um, well, uh, you see, why Kyle Pitts is…the truth is that I'm neither a good enough writer or a good enough liar to make any kind of truly convincing argument for starting Pitts right now. We're talking about a tight end who caught one of six targets last week. Who has two catches for 23 yards over the last three weeks combined.
The maddening part is, we're also talking about the earliest tight end ever drafted in the NFL. A player who exceeded 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. A 6-6 matchup nightmare who is (in theory, at least) too big to be covered by a cornerback and too fast to be covered by a linebacker. Pitts didn't just forget how to play football—I think.
The Case for Gray: There's no question that Travis Kelce is the top tight end in Kansas City. He's likely still the top pass-catcher for the Chiefs period. But Gray has quietly been on nice the little rip over the last month or so—from Week 11 to Week 14, Gray ranked fifth among all tight ends in PPR points.
For whatever reason, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II has been leaning on Gray more during that hot streak—possibly because opposing defenses just don't prioritize him. Over that four-game span, Gray has been targeted 20 times—nearly half of his total targets for the season. He's had at least four looks in four straight games.
The Verdict: Pitts. This is it. Charlie Brown barreling at a football he fully knows Lucy will pull away at the last second. Rolling out Pitts inspires about as much confidence as being a New York Giants fan right now. But the playoffs are about points—and it's better to roll the dice on Pitts getting 15-20 than to bank the half-dozen or so Gray is good for.
No guts, no glory.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
