The time has come—after 14 weeks of lineup decisions and waiver claims and trade offers and nail-biting finishes, the fantasy football regular season has come to its end.
For the vast majority of fantasy managers still playing in Week 15, the playoffs are here. And that means one thing.
Mistakes are now death.
Pleasant, huh?
It may be macabre, but it's also the truth. Every game from here out is single elimination. The next loss is the last one of the year. Make one error setting your lineup and leave points on the bench and that's that. Ho Ho Ho, you suck, loser.
Okay, that was just mean.
Now, no one has to tell fantasy managers to start Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Or Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Or Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. But not every decision is so obvious. Sometimes, the margin between two players is razor-thin. It's a coin flip. A close call.
And coming out on the right side of those is how teams move on to Week 16.
Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.
Here goes nothing.
Close Call: Jared Goff, Detroit (QB13) vs. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay (QB15)
The Case for Goff: That the Los Angeles Rams threw in a first-rounder to get rid of Goff in the Matthew Stafford trade a few years ago is mind-boggling in hindsight. If Goff's numbers were gaudier, he'd be a legitimate MVP candidate. Goff's 25 touchdown passes are fifth in the league, and no NFC quarterback has a higher passer rating.
Goff has a bevy of offensive weapons at his disposal. One of the best offensive lines in the game in front of him. The 30-year-old is ninth in fantasy points for the season at his position, and while the Bills pass defense is no joke, this game has the highest over/under of Week 15 at DraftKings—by a sizable margin.
The Case for Mayfield: As good as Goff has been in 2024, there hasn't been a bigger surprise at quarterback in the NFL than Mayfield—he's fourth in the league in passing yards with 3,329, and there isn't a signal-caller in the NFC who has thrown more touchdown passes this year. Mayfield's also sixth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points.
Mayfield doesn't quite have the weaponry available to him that Goff does, but the 29-year-old managed to maintain decent production even after Chris Godwin and Mike Evans went down. Evans is back now, and with Tampa back in first place in the NFC South, the Buccaneers can't afford to take their foot off the gas this week against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Pick: Goff. Mayfield draws the better matchup this week, although neither Los Angeles nor Buffalo are especially favorable. But Sunday's Super Bowl preview has shootout written all over it—and Matthew Stafford showed a week ago that the Bills can be had through the air.
Close Call: James Cook, Buffalo (RB21) vs. Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jr., NY Giants (RB22)
The Case for Cook: With about 300 yards over the season's last month, Cook will surpass 1,000 yards on the ground for the second straight season. He's averaging a rock-solid 4.7 yards per carry for the second year in a row. And it doesn't hurt that the former Georgia standout plays for one of the most potent offenses in the league.
The problem for both of these young backs in Week 15 is that their matchups, um, suck. The Lions are one of six NFL teams surrendering less than 95 yards per game on the ground. Fantasy-wise things are that much worse—Detroit is dead last in the NFC in PPR points allowed to running backs—just 16.5 per game.
The Case for Tracy: Not a lot has gone right for the Giants this season, but New York appears to have found something in Tracy—the rookie has emerged as New York's lead back, averaging 4.7 yards a pop and showing real explosiveness. Fumbles have been an issue, but the fifth-round pick out of Purdue has a chance to put his stamp on the Giants backfield entering the offseason.
However, just like Cook Tracy will be fighting for every yard this week—the Ravens are one of the league's worst pass defenses, but also one of the league's best run defenses. As a matter of fact, Baltimore's 82.7 yards allowed on the ground per game tops the NFL, and the Ravens have given up the ninth-fewest PPR points to backs this season.
The Verdict: Cook. There admittedly isn't a number or metric to point to here. Cook is just a more proven player playing on an exponentially better offense. Cook's lack of touches of late is genuinely concerning. But not as worrisome as the odds that the Giants get blown out and abandon the run game altogether.
