As the fantasy regular season hits the double-digit weeks, the tension and pressure ratchet up. There are a few fortunate managers steering juggernauts that are barreling toward the postseason. And a few not-so-fortunate managers whose teams have crashed and burned. There will be no playoffs.
But for most, the only thing certain right now is that nothing is certain. And the margin for error in lineup decisions is narrowing by the week.
Put together a couple of wins, and teams can be right back in the hunt. Lose a couple of contests, and that could just about stick a fork in 2024. And some squads can't even look two weeks down the road. Take a loss in Week 10, and that could be that. The end of any realistic shot of advancing to the playoffs.
Every lineup decision could be the difference between victory and defeat. And while some choices are easy (starting Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is probably a good idea), it's the tough choices that can make or break a season.
The close calls are the most difficult—and the most important. But Close Calls at Footballguys is here to help.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If your team is loaded with must-start stars, then you don't need us.
You need a slap. And I say that in a way that is totally not bitter or petty.
Close Call: Justin Herbert, LA Chargers (QB16) vs. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (QB19)
The Case for Herbert: The Chargers passing game was stuck in neutral over the first month of the 2026 season—Herbert didn't throw for 250 yards over his first five games of the year and threw more than one touchdown pass just once over that span. Over his first five games of 2024, Herbert ranked outside the top 30 in fantasy points among quarterbacks.
It's been a different story over the past three games, though. Since Week 7, Herbert has thrown for at least 275 yards in every game, posting multiple touchdown passes twice. Over that three-game span, Herbert is sixth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points—and the Chargers have peeled off three wins in four games to move to 5-3.
The Case for Tagovailoa: It's been a disappointing season for both Tagovailoa and the Dolphins—the young quarterback suffered another concussion that earned him a stint on injured reserve and the team is 2-6 and already clinging to playoff hopes by a thread. Tagovailoa's return hasn't helped, either—Miami is 0-2 since his return.
However, Tagovailoa is still at the helm of an offense loaded with skill-position talent, and we have seen some massive offensive efforts from the Dolphins with Tagovailoa under center. In Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards and a score on the way to a QB8 fantasy finish.
The Verdict: Tagovailoa. This is essentially a toss-up. But while the Tennessee Titans are a terrible team, their defense has been solid—first in the NFL in yards per game allowed. The Chargers aren't going to need as much offense to beat Tennessee as Miami will to get past the 4-4 Rams. In fact, Monday's game has some shootout potential.
Close Call: Rico Dowdle, Dallas (RB23) vs. Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (RB25)
The Case for Dowdle: There hasn't been much that has gone right for the Dallas Cowboys this season, and the ground game is near the top of the list. For the season, the Cowboys are averaging just 82.0 rushing yards per game this season. Only the Las Vegas Raiders have been more punchless running the ball in 2024.
However, last week the Cowboys abandoned the worst committee "attack" in the league and just let Rico Dowdle serve as an every-down back. Dallas didn't get a win (They don't do that so much this year), but Dowdle had easily the best game by a Dallas back this season—107 total yards with a receiving touchdown.
The Case for Hubbard: Hubbard has been one of fantasy football's biggest surprises in 2024, posting top-10 numbers despite playing for an awful team. Ayrton Ostley of USA Today believes that Hubbard has at least one more big week in him.
"We said last week that Hubbard's matchup with the Saints may be his final week as a solid fantasy starter," he said. "Well, we're extending that one more week with his game against New York. The Giants' run defense has dropped off considerably in the past three weeks with opposing running back groups averaging 204 yards per game. He should be good this week before next week's bye and the likely emergence of rookie Jonathan Brooks."
The Verdict: Hubbard. Brooks has been activated, but even if the rookie does play in Germany, it will be to spell Hubbard—there's no rational reason for the Panthers to rush Brooks into a big role. Dowdle also draws a bad matchup for running backs in Week 10—the Eagles have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points to running backs in 2024.
Close Call: Jordan Addison, Minnesota (WR32) vs. Keenan Allen, Chicago (WR34)
The Case for Addison: There's zero question who the top dog is in the Vikings passing attack, and with tight end T.J. Hockenson also returning in Week 9, there's genuine cause for concern about Addison's target share—the second-year pro has received six targets or more just once this season, hasn't had 75 receiving yards in a game yet and has found the end zone just twice.
However, Addison's "Free 3" Instagram post appears to have gotten him some "squeaky wheel" treatment—last week's five targets were his second-highest total of the season, and he caught all five of those targets for 42 yards and a score. Justin Jefferson is awesome, but it still makes sense for the Vikings to get Addison more involved in the offense.
The Case for Allen: Allen's first season with the Bears has been hot garbage, but we're still talking about a player who topped 100 catches and 1,000 yards just this past season. Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron admitted to reporters recently that Chicago needs to get the veteran wideout more involved in the offense.
"Obviously we want to get Keenan involved more. It's a goal of ours," Waldron said. "It's that fine line of pressing to get him involved but also knowing that he's going to do a good job like he always does of doing things right, showing up every single day and working to get on the same page, which he's done a great job with and then leading to the results on the field."
The Verdict: Addison. Neither of these receivers inspire a ton of confidence in fantasy managers who need a win—and with good reason. But Addison showed signs of life last week while Allen and the Bears faceplanted in Arizona. Addison also draws the better Week 10 matchup—the Jacksonville Jaguars have surrendered the fourth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers in 2024.
Close Call: Jauan Jennings, San Francisco (WR46) vs. Jalen Tolbert, Dallas (WR48)
The Case for Jennings: Jennings has missed the last two games with a back issue, and if he's unable to go against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this call makes itself. But Jennings has logged a pair of limited practices this week and appears on track to take the field against the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay.
If that happens, Jennings could be a rock-solid fantasy option this week. We have seen Jennings post some big stat lines as a starter for the 49ers this season, including a gonzo 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns on a dozen targets against the Los Angeles Rams back in Week 3.
The Case for Tolbert: The Dallas offense has been hit hard by injuries of late. Quarterback Dak Prescott is out indefinitely after injuring his hamstring last week against the Atlanta Falcons. Star wideout CeeDee Lamb is also questionable after injuring his shoulder in the same game, although he's at least practicing in a limited fashion.
If Lamb sits, Tolbert becomes the WR1 for a Dallas team that will likely be playing from behind Sunday. Granted, he'll be catching passes from Cooper Rush, but Tolbert has quietly averaged 10.4 PPR points per game this season, while the Eagles have struggled to defend the pass at times.
The Verdict: Jennings. Lamb sitting would tighten things up. But assuming he goes Jennings is the more productive fantasy asset on a much better offense in a much better matchup—the Buccaneers have surrendered the sixth-most PPR points per game to wideouts this season.
Close Call: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta (TE11) vs. Sam LaPorta, Detroit (TE14)
The Case for Pitts: Pitts has admittedly been a lot like Lucy holding the ball for Charlie Brown—just when we thought we could trust the young tight end as a weekly starter after a multi-week hot streak, Pitts vanished again. Last week against Dallas, Pitts was targeted just one time, catching that target for 11 yards.
However, before that vanishing act, Pitts had been on a nice little rip—four straight games with double-digit fantasy points, including four catches for 91 yards and a pair of touchdowns two weeks ago against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It has been a rollercoaster, but Pitts ranks seventh among all tight ends in PPR points for the season.
The Case for LaPorta: LaPorta was the first tight end drafted in many fantasy leagues this year, but things haven't gone according to plan—he's 19th in PPR points per game among tight ends. Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated isn't especially confident that trend will reverse itself this week in Houston.
"(LaPorta has) failed to score double digits in all but two games, including just 4.8 points last week, and this weekend's contest in Houston is a tough one," Fabiano said. "Only two tight ends have beaten the Texans for more than 7.2 points, and no tight end has scored more than 13.1 points against them in 2024."
The Verdict: Pitts. If you think the case for LaPorta is rather weak, here's more fun news—Pitts posted a goose egg in Atlanta's first meeting with the Saints this year. However, despite that doughnut, Pitts is still the more productive player in the better matchup—the Saints are middle of the pack in PPR points per game given up to tight ends in 2024.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
