There is no worse feeling in fantasy football. No bigger punch in the gut. Nothing more maddening. The week's final game concludes, you check the final score—and realize that you lost by less than one point. Just a few yards. One reception in PPR leagues. That's all that prevented you from victory and doomed you to defeat.
Now, dwelling on a bad beat like that is a surefire way to make yourself nuts and/or develop a drinking problem.
Such a classic movie.
But those razor-thin losses serve to underscore that each and every lineup decision each and every week matters. Every lineup call can be the difference between a win and a loss.
And it can be argued that the close calls matter most of all. Starting Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry isn't hard. But choosing between two closely ranked players? Making those difficult calls correctly can be the difference between playoff trips and an early end to the season.
Close calls here at Footballguys is here to help you make those calls—and get those few extra points that can be the difference between a win and a loss.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you have two top-five quarterbacks and can't decide who to roll out, just flip a coin.
And then trade one, you hoarder.
Close Call: Geno Smith, Seattle (QB11) vs. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay (QB12)
The Case for Smith: Smith doesn't get much run as a high-end quarterback, but the 34-year-old is completing over 68 percent of his passes for the third time in four seasons. His 1,985 passing yards lead the NFL. And while he only has eight touchdown passes, Smith still ranks seventh among all quarterbacks in fantasy points.
Smith will admittedly most likely be down his No. 1 wide receiver Sunday—DK Metcalf sprained his MCL last week. His matchup isn't great—the Bills are 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. But Smith still has Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And the Seahawks are going to have to throw to knock off Buffalo.
The Case for Mayfield: What Mayfield has accomplished this year in Tampa is nothing short of remarkable. He hasn't just resurrected his career. He's playing as well as any quarterback in the league. Mayfield's 18 touchdown passes lead the NFL, and he currently has more fantasy points than any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson.
The problem is that the engine for much of that success just threw a rod. Wide receiver Chris Godwin dislocated his ankle with less than a minute to go in last week's loss to the Baltimore Ravens. And earlier in that same game, fellow wideout Mike Evans suffered a hamstring injury severe enough that it's expected to cost the veteran several weeks,
The Verdict: Smith. Mayfield has a much better matchup—the Falcons are sixth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. But his decimated wideout corps is just a bridge too far—at least until we see what the Bucs can do to patch a group together.
Close Call: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh (RB21) vs. Javonte Williams, Denver (RB22)
The Case for Harris: For the past couple of weeks, Harris has been the running back the Steelers thought they were drafting back in 2021. Not that Harris hasn't been effective in the past—he has three 1,000-yard seasons in as many years. But his career yards per carry is 4.1.
That also happens to be how many yards a tote Harris is averaging this year. But the last two games have been a far different story—two straight games with over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. Over that admittedly small sample size, Harris is averaging almost six yards a pop.
The Case for Williams: Williams' 2024 has been a rollercoaster and then some. There was talk that Williams could be released outright. Then glowing reports from camp. Then a sluggish start to the season—Williams didn't average even three yards a carry over Denver's first three games.
Last week against the New Orleans Saints though, Williams had his best game of the season. He didn't rush for 100 yards, but he averaged over six yards per carry, amassed 111 total yards, and found the end zone twice, numbers that earned the fourth-year pro a sixth-place finish among running backs for the week in PPR points.
The Verdict: Harris. Both backs are excellent Week 8 plays, with Williams taking on the Carolina Panthers and their NFL-worst run defense. But Harris gets a plus matchup as well—the Giants rank 25th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 138.1 yards per game. Harris has looked great these past two weeks—ride the hot hand.
Close Call: Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas (RB30) vs. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville (RB32)
The Case for Mattison: Not a lot has gone right for the Raiders this season, and the rushing attack has been no exception—only two teams are averaging fewer yards per game on the ground than the 85.6 the Raiders are gaining. And on a per-touch basis, Mattison has been underwhelming—just 3.6 yards per carry.
But there's a reason why Mattison ranks among the top-25 running backs in the league for the year. He has touched the ball at least 17 times each of the past three weeks, including a season-high 26 for 123 total yards last week against the Rams, He also has a nose for the end zone—four touchdowns so far this season.
The Case for Bigsby: Given what Bigsby has accomplished over the past few weeks, the Jaguars might want to give him the ball more. First, Bigsby gained 101 rushing yards and scored twice on just 13 carries against the Indianapolis Colts. Then last week in London, Bigsby got his workhorse on—26 carries, 118 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground.
This week's matchup with the Packers isn't especially appealing though. In addition to the potential for a negative game script against Green Bay, there's also a good chance that Etienne (ankle) will be back on the field. What impact his return would have on Bigsby's carry-share might be uncertain—but it ain't good.
The Verdict: Bigsby. His matchup may not be great, but it's better than Mattison's—the Kansas City Chiefs have allowed just 90.5 yards per game on the ground this season, and the Raiders are just about a mortal lock to be playing catch-up in the second half.
Close Call: Keenan Allen, Chicago (WR34) vs. Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland (WR35)
The Case for Allen: The 2024 season got off to a miserable start for Allen, who missed time early in the season and was invisible when he was on the field. But two weeks ago against the Jaguars in London, Allen finally had himself a day—he only had five catches for 41 yards, but two of those grabs went for scores.
Perhaps the biggest cause for enthusiasm with Allen is the maturation and improvement shown by Bears quarterback Caleb Williams the past two weeks. As recently as the long-ago days of last season, Allen topped 100 catches and 1,200 yards. With Williams playing at a high level, Allen is primed for a big second half.
The Case for Jeudy: Just throw out Jeudy's Week 7 clunker in the first game since the Amari Cooper trade, For reasons known only to God and Jimmy Haslam, the Browns turned to Dorian Thompson-Robinson when Deshaun Watson tore his Achilles. Thompson-Robinson sucks throwing the football. Period.
Now, however, the Browns will start Jameis Winston. Say what you will about Famous Jameis and eating a W (so weird), but Winston has thrown for 5,000 yards in a season. Cleveland might actually have a functional passing game—and Jeudy is the most talented wide receiver on the roster.
The Verdict: Jeudy. This one is admittedly a hunch—Wiliams and the Bears have looked good, and the Commanders defense can be had through the air. But Baltimore's pass defense ranks dead last in the NFL at 287.1 yards per game, and the odds of Cleveland trailing in this game are approximately 327 percent.
Close Call: Mark Andrews, Baltimore (TE15) vs. Sam LaPorta, Detroit (TE16)
The Case for Andrews: Remember Mark Andrews? That veteran tight end who led all tight ends in fantasy points when he caught 107 passes for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns. The 29-year-old spent much of this season on a milk carton, but the past two weeks have been turn back the clock time.
Against the Washington Commanders in Week 6, Andrews caught three passes for 66 yards and a touchdown. Andrews then followed that up with an even better Week 7 against the Buccaneers—four catches for 41 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Andrews still isn't being targeted a ton. But he's making the most of the targets he gets.
The Case for LaPorta: It's hard to be an even bigger fantasy disappointment than Andrews this season, but LaPorta has pulled it off. The first tight end drafted in many fantasy leagues this year, Last year's TE1 has seen his numbers fall across the board—LaPorta hasn't caught five passes in a game this season and has scored just once.
It's fair to wonder if the emergence of wide receiver Jameson Williams has played a substantial role in LaPorta's downturn. But with Williams serving a PED suspension for the next two weeks, LaPorta should see a boost in targets—and his fantasy managers could receive at least a temporary reprieve.
The Verdict: LaPorta. The matchups for these players are equally poor—the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans both rank in the bottom five in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends. So, we'll roll the dice that Williams' absence does produce a target bump—and LaPorta's best game of the season.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
