You just never know.
You never know which lineup decision can be the difference between victory and defeat in a given week. And you never know which week’s outcome will be the difference between a trip to the fantasy playoffs and a disappointing end to the season.
Sure, it’s only Week 7. There’s still a lot of football to be played between now and the end of the regular season. Fortunes can change—for better or worse. Teams who are rolling get banged up or hit a string of high-scoring opponents. Teams who are scuffling get healthy and catch the breaks that have avoided them so far this season.
However, for some managers, waiting for their luck to change isn’t an option. With just one or two wins so far this season, their margin for error has all but evaporated. Take many more losses, and even a late surge could be too little, too late.
For those fantasy managers, the pressure is up to get a win this week. To milk every possible point from their starting lineup. To get every lineup decision right—including the close calls.
This column is here to help you get headed in the right direction.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings.
If you have four top-15 running backs and can’t decide who to sit, then you are on your own.
Also, can I borrow one? Just for the week?
Close Call: Kyler Murray, Arizona (QB15) vs. Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City (QB16)
The Case for Murray: Murray’s numbers the past few weeks immediately aren’t great—he has cracked 200 passing yards just once in the past three games and has just one touchdown pass in each of those contests. Murray could be without top wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion), and he faces a Los Angeles Chargers pass defense that ranks eighth in the NFL.
But we have seen that Murray can post fat stat lines—he threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 2, adding another 59 yards on the ground. It’s that ability to hurt opponents on the ground that truly boosts Murray’s fantasy value, and with Harrison out, Murray may need to scramble more to keep the chains moving.
The Case for Mahomes: The Chiefs head to San Francisco a perfect 5-0, but it hasn’t been because of gaudy statistics from Mahomes—he hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since back in Week 3 and currently ranks 24th in fantasy points among quarterbacks—one spot behind Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns.
However, Mahomes is coming off his best yardage effort of the 2024 campaign—331 yards in a Week 5 win over the New Orleans Saints. Against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, Mahomes threw for 333 yards and a pair of touchdowns. And the 49ers haven’t been a terrible fantasy matchup for quarterbacks—18th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position.
The Verdict: Mahomes. If Harrison clears the concussion protocol, that changes things, but with the Cardinals playing Monday night, fantasy managers may not be able to afford to wait. Sunday’s trip to San Fran is a statement game for Mahomes and the Chiefs, and he has a history of rising to such occasions. He’ll have his best game of the season in Week 7.
Close Call: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington (RB22) vs. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville (RB24)
The Case for Robinson: Robinson carries some risk in Week 7—the third-year pro missed Week 6 with a knee injury. But he’s back on the practice field, and while speaking to reporters, he sounded like a young running back planning to play Sunday.
"I feel great," Robinson said. "More like myself again."
Assuming that Robinson does return to action Sunday, he will do so in a fantastic fantasy matchup against the lowly Panthers. The Panthers have struggled mightily in just about every way imaginable this season, including against the run—only the Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts have given up more rushing yards per game than the 153.5 the Panthers are surrendering.
The Case for Bigsby: While there are questions about Robinson’s availability for Week 7, Bigsby stands to benefit from an injury. Travis Etienne Jr. got in some limited practice time this week, but his hamstring injury was called “week-to-week.” Generally, that phrase means a player is going to miss at least one game.
If Etienne sits or is severely limited, we have seen what Bigsby can do as Jacksonville’s lead back—the second-year pro was a hot commodity on the waiver wire a couple of weeks back, piling up 105 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries. The New England Patriots can also be had on the ground, allowing just over 130 yards per game.
The Verdict: Robinson. We could be looking at shared backfields in both of these instances, but Robinson has the better matchup and has been a more productive player this year—two games with over 100 yards on the ground and a touchdown in four of the five games in which he’s played. Robinson should also benefit from a positive game script.
Close Call: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City (WR38) vs. Jordan Addison, Minnesota (WR39)
The Case for Worthy: The rookie has shown flashes of the explosiveness that got him drafted in the first round last year, including a rushing touchdown last week. The touchdown was Worthy’s fourth of the season, and head coach Andy Reid told reporters they have only scratched the surface of what the youngster can do.
"He does a lot of things there for us, a lot of different positions,” Reid said. “We've got flexibility with him to move him around. He's a quick learner, which helps in this offense, so I'm happy with what we've got so far, and I don't think we've tapped that out at all. He'll keep getting better [...] and that's exciting."
The Case for Addison: After topping 900 receiving yards and scoring 10 touchdowns as a rookie, Addison has been relatively quiet this season, largely because of an ankle injury that cost him multiple games. But Addison is 100 percent again coming out of the bye week, heading into a massive Week 7 matchup with the Detroit Lions.
That matchup with the Lions is as appealing as Addison’s not inconsiderable talents. There are many things that the Detroit Lions do well, but defending the pass is not one of them. Detroit is allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (246.2), and the Lions have surrendered the fourth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers in 2024.
The Verdict: Addison. The notion of Worthy emerging as the No. 1 wide receiver the Chiefs need is highly appealing, given his blazing speed, but we’ve yet to see it happen. Addison is a more proven commodity with a better matchup, coming off a season-high eight targets last time out. If the Vikings are going to beat Detroit and remain unbeaten, it will be through the air.
Close Call: DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee (WR43) vs. Christian Watson, Green Bay (WR44)
The Case for Hopkins: It has admittedly been a rough year for Hopkins and Calvin Ridley in Nashville. How rough, you ask? There are over a dozen pass-catchers (including more than one tight end) who have more receptions and yardage by themselves than Tennessee’s supposed duo of stars have put together.
Still, we are talking about DeAndre Hopkins—he has seven 1,000-yard seasons on his NFL resume, including as recently as a year ago, when the quarterback situation in Tennessee wasn’t any better than it is this year. Hopkins and Ridley are better than their numbers--and at some point, that’s going to show.
The Case for Watson: The Packers are all kinds of beat up at wide receiver, with Watson one of the walking wounded. However, he has practiced in a limited fashion this week and the oft-injured third-year pro played through the injury last week against the Arizona Cardinals, hauling in three passes for 68 yards and a touchdown.
When Watson is healthy, he shows a fantasy WR1 upside. But in addition to his durability concerns Watson also plays in one of the more crowded wide receiver rooms in the league. If Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are both a go in Week 7 as well, Watson’s target share could become uncertain.
The Verdict: Watson. This writer just can’t advocate starting any Titans player who isn’t running back Tony Pollard right now. Neither team has an especially favorable matchup, but Watson’s is better—Houston is 15th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts. Roll the dice on fewer targets and roll with the player who has an actual NFL quarterback throwing him the ball.
Close Call: Mark Andrews, Baltimore (TE16) vs. Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh (TE17)
The Case for Andrews: Hallelujah, we had a Mark Andrews sighting last week—the veteran turned four targets into three catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. That score tied Andrews with Todd Heap for the most touchdowns by a tight end in Ravens history, and he told reporters that he knew his long statistical slump would eventually end.
"You know, obviously, I want the ball," Andrews said. "I want to be able to help this team win. But it's just knowing that your time will come and just keep going."
Now it’s just a matter of seeing if last week’s outburst was a one-week anomaly or a return to some degree of normalcy where Andrews’ fantasy production is concerned.
The Case for Freiermuth: Were it not for a Steelers penalty, Freiermuth would have found the end zone for the third week in a row last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. And while you can certainly wonder about the wisdom of the Steelers making a change at quarterback, the Pittsburgh passing attack should be more prolific with Russell Wilson under center.
Freiermuth’s numbers haven’t been jaw-dropping this season—22 catches for 194 yards and a pair of touchdowns. But those numbers are good enough to rank Freiermuth eighth in PPR points among tight ends. His matchup this week admittedly isn’t good though—the New York Jets are 26th in PPR points per game given up to tight ends this season.
The Verdict: Andrews. This may be living in the past. Or wishful thinking. Freiermuth has been much more productive this year, and Andrews still isn’t generating the sort of target numbers he once did. But Andrews has the better fantasy matchup with the Buccaneers and will turn in a second straight Andrews-esque effort.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
