In fantasy football, the month of May brings a fresh wave of excitement. With the NFL Draft behind us, dynasty rookie drafts are in full swing, and redraft enthusiasts are starting to emerge from their brief hibernation.
To help you gain an edge in your league, I delved into Footballguys consensus rankings and current ADP data to uncover some currently undervalued players heading into the 2023 season.
Whether you're playing Best Ball or simply getting a head start on your draft preparations, it's crucial to identify undervalued players who can deliver exceptional performances. Here are eight players who could exceed expectations and outperform their perceived value this season.
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
While concerns about Tua Tagovailoa's injury history are understandable, letting him slip to backup quarterback territory in your draft might be overly risk-averse. Despite missing four games last season and being forced to leave two other games early, Tagovailoa finished as the QB15 in fantasy. Factoring in those two truncated appearances, he averaged over 25 fantasy points per game, which would make him a top-5 fantasy quarterback. With the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as his receiving weapons, Tagovailoa should be considered a top-10 quarterback option, at the very least, with the potential for a stellar fantasy season in 2023.
QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
When Geno Smith re-signed with the Seattle Seahawks, initial reactions didn't anticipate a repeat of his breakout 2022 season. However, upon closer examination, Smith's performance doesn't appear unrepeatable.
He threw for 4,282 yards last year, just over 250 per game, and with talented weapons like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and the newly-drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his disposal, it's reasonable to expect similar production. With an improved supporting cast and offensive line in 2023, he has the potential to secure another top-five finish at the quarterback position.
Jordan McNamara did this great piece on Geno Smith and other quarterbacks that benefited from the NFL Draft.
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Despite a turbulent offseason, Joe Mixon's role in the Cincinnati Bengals' backfield remains intact. The team allowed Samaje Perine to walk in free agency and waited until Day 3 to draft a new backup running back. These moves strongly suggest that Mixon will continue to be the bell cow back for the Bengals.
In just 14 games last year, Mixon finished as a top-10 running back and also had his best year as a pass-catcher. Surprisingly, many fantasy managers perceive Mixon as a risky RB2, which could make him a steal in your drafts. If he maintains his volume and sees an increase in touchdowns, he scored 16 in 2021, Mixon has the potential to return to the top 5 among fantasy running backs.
RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
David Montgomery's move to the Detroit Lions presents an exciting opportunity for him to revitalize his career. Over the past two seasons, Montgomery has delivered average performances with the Chicago Bears. However, his shift to the Lions, where he replaces Jamaal Williams, could inject new life into his fantasy prospects.
Last season, Detroit running backs had 59 carries inside the 10-yard line, a significant factor in Williams' 17-touchdown campaign. It was also 39 more carries than the Bears' running backs last year. While expecting Montgomery to replicate Williams' numbers is unrealistic, an improvement on his five touchdowns in 2022 is certainly possible. Jared Goff is far less likely to steal those valuable carries in the red zone than Justin Fields, elevating Montgomery's fantasy value. Currently ranked outside the top 20, Montgomery can easily exceed expectations in 2023.
WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Though it seemed we'd gotten past undervaluing Keenan Allen, he had one rough year, and we're back to square one. While he missed seven games last year, it's crucial not to overlook how impressive he was on the field.
In the 10 games he played, Allen averaged nine targets, six receptions, and 75 yards per game, with four touchdowns scored. From Week 11 to Week 18, he ranked as the third-best wide receiver in fantasy football, trailing only Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams. Jefferson and Adams are ranked as top-5 receivers, and rightfully so. But Allen is being drafted as a second or third option at wide receiver.
Entering his age-31 season, Allen remains the primary target for Justin Herbert in the Los Angeles Chargers offense. He is the safety blanket Herbert will target 9-10 times per game. That volume, and his sure hands, make him an enticing steal in PPR formats.
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite a lackluster 2022 season, Mike Evans finished as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver. It was a subpar season but an electric Week 17 propped his numbers. Evans was impossible to trust for most of 2022. If you stuck with him, you likely missed the playoffs altogether. He won more toilet bowls than fantasy championships. Many fantasy managers are skeptical of his prospects heading into 2023, especially with Tom Brady's retirement.
How can he be good with Baker Mayfield if he was untrustworthy with Brady? However, it's worth noting that Brady had a down year in 2022, with his lowest passer rating and touchdown total since joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There is no world where Baker Mayfield is better than Brady, but matching what Brady did in 2022 might not be a challenging task.
Evans is the only player in NFL history with nine consecutive 1000-yard seasons. Tampa Bay's passing volume will remain high, and Evans will be the best deep threat on the team. Baker Mayfield beat Brady on yards per attempt last season, so we could potentially see Evans' yardage improve. In the previous five seasons, no 1000-yard receiver has finished worse than WR25 in fantasy football, and most have Evans ranked outside of their Top 30.
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
Tight end is notoriously challenging for rookies to acclimate to in the NFL. Therefore, it wasn't surprising that Chigoziem Okonkwo's rookie year didn't dazzle. However, there were glimpses of promise that suggest improvement is on the horizon in his sophomore season.
Once Okonkwo secured the starting job in Week 12, he finished six of seven games with at least four targets, ranking as the TE7 during that stretch. With the departure of Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim, Okonkwo should become the starting tight end for the Tennessee Titans.
Given the lack of significant additions to the Titans' wide receiver corps, Okonkwo has a strong chance of becoming the second-most targeted player in the passing game. Doubling his 46 targets from last year would put him in the conversation as a top-5 tight end in fantasy football.
For an in-depth look at the struggles of rookie tight ends, check out this article from Jordan McNamara!
TE Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
Like Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich had a somewhat underwhelming rookie year, showing flashes of potential but struggling for consistency. He started strong with three consecutive games of 10-plus fantasy points but struggled to replicate that success afterward. Still, he only played in 10 games and scored over 10 fantasy points in half of them.
Despite only playing 10 games, he finished as the TE29 for the season and averaged just over eight fantasy points per game. That would have placed him in the Top 10 over a full season. New head coach Sean Payton has an impressive history with fantasy tight ends, getting good production from Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook, and Benjamin Watson. As a result, Dulcich has a golden opportunity to prove himself and emerge as the primary tight-end target for the team. If he secures the job, Dulcich has the potential to surpass his TE13 ranking and provide significant fantasy value.
You can find more articles from Ryan Weisse here.