Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it’s not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Does playing contrarian in DFS really work? YES! I’ve won good money in DFS in three out of five weeks using a contrarian play or two per lineup.
Key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
CONTRARIAN QUARTERBACKS
After a rocky start to the season, Bryce Young has settled in over the last three games averaging 233 passing yards with five total touchdowns against two interceptions. Young has averaged 15.82 DFS points over the last three games as well. This week he’ll face a below-average Colts pass defense, who will be without starting CB Julius Brents.
The Chicago Bears defense will be without the services of Jaquan Brisker, Terell Smith, and Tremaine Edmunds for Sunday’s contest against the Saints. Derek Carr has thrown for 300 yards in three straight games and averaged 18.02 DFS points over those contests. He’ll face a Chicago defense that is tied for the third-highest QB passer rating allowed and allows the highest percentage of red zone visits turned into touchdowns.
The Baltimore Ravens are arguably the best defense in the NFL in 2023. However, Geno Smith has played well this season. The Cleveland Browns defense is in the conversation with Baltimore and Smith threw for 254 yards two touchdowns and two interceptions last week. Smith will get a boost this week as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are off of the injury report. While the low roster percentage already helps, if you play in FanDuel, Smith is shockingly cheap this week too.
Mac Jones has thrown two touchdowns in each of his last two games. This week, he’ll face a Washington defense allowing the second-highest QB passer rating in the NFL and the second-most points allowed per game. The Patriots will be without DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne. However, Washington just lost their top two pass rushers, which will continue to hurt the confidence of this defense.
CONTRARIAN RUNNING BACKS
Darrell Henderson has averaged 17 touches per game since he joined the Rams two weeks ago. If Matt Stafford doesn’t play, you would think the game plan would be more run-focused. The Packers are a bottom-10 run defense in most metrics and have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to RBs this season. Green Bay trading away CB Rasul Douglas can’t instill confidence in this team or defense either.
Emari Demercado has been ruled out for Sunday, which gives a huge opportunity to Keaontay Ingram. He’ll face a top-five rushing defense in the Cleveland Browns this week. However, touches and opportunity matter the most in fantasy football. Ingram will have those plus be a low-priced and low-rostered player at least for now. He hasn’t produced at a high rate, so the ceiling should be low on this play.
The Tampa Bay defense is a top-10 run defense in most metrics. However, Dameon Pierce has been ruled out for Sunday. This creates a high floor for Devin Singletary to see touches and snaps this week. The ceiling for Singletary shouldn’t be high based on his career production. The hope would be Singletary has around 15 touches for around 50 total yards and sneaks into the end zone at least once.
D’Onta Foreman has 10 or more touches in each of the last three games for Chicago. He’s still the starter with Roschon Johnson working his way back from a concussion and learning as a rookie. Chicago showed their path to winning without Justin Fields against the Raiders with a heavy ground-focused attack. Fields has been upgraded to doubtful for this week and this would only help Foreman’s potential. Chicago might also see the return of LT Braxton Jones this week, which could also give a boost to this running game. The Saints are a formidable defense, that is better against the pass, but still have a stout run defense. Foreman is a higher upside play than Ingram and about on par with Singletary.
The roster percentage of Jonathan Taylor is right on the edge of a contrarian play, but I will have him in many lineups this week. Taylor has averaged 5.7 YPC in the last two games while facing the above-mentioned Browns and Saints stout run defenses. To quote Michael Jordan “I’m Back.” This week, he’ll face one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and they’re allowed the second most fantasy points to RBs. This speaks to why I included him in this article and my expectation for a much higher ownership percentage. He should be a core play for your lineups.
CONTRARIAN WIDE RECEIVERS
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