Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it's not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
CONTRARIAN QUARTERBACKS
Nick Mullens’ start last week resulted in throwing for over 300 yards and two TDs against a Bengals defense allowing the tenth-most fantasy points to QBs. Mullens earned the start again this week and will face a Lions defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to QBs. The Lions will be without starting CB Jerry Jacobs on Sunday and will have to rely on Kindle Vildor, who was one of the worst starting CBs in the NFL over previous seasons. Justin Jefferson increased his snap share from 18% to 96% in his return from injury. Mullens should only improve his rapport with Jefferson and the rest of the offense as he continues to take more reps as the starter in practice and games.
Gardner Minshew has averaged 255 passing yards over the last four games as he’s leading the Colts to a potential playoff birth. Minshew is averaging two passing TDs over his last three games. Despite a concussion last week, Michael Pittman is likely to play on Sunday and Jonathan Taylor is returning from an injury should create betting play-action opportunities for Minshew. The Falcons' pass defense is middle of the road among the NFL but allows the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs. Minshew is on a hot streak with his full assortment of weapons in a very important game against a Falcons team that is kind of unraveling to end the season.
Tua Tagovailoa has only thrown one TD pass in the last two games combined, but one of those games was against the best pass defense in the NFL. One of the biggest factors in his dip in production was Tyreek Hill’s ankle injury. Hill practiced this week and looks like he will play. Hill and Waddle allow Tua to have big games no matter the opponent. He’ll face the Cowboys this week, who are the seventh-best pass defense, but allow the 18th most fantasy points to QBs.
Jared Goff rebounded last week to throw for five TDs after struggling for a few games. The Lions have lots of motivation to finish out the year strong to win the division and potentially earn the top playoff seed in the NFC. Detroit will play Minnesota in two of the last three games and the Vikings love to blitz. We don’t know how Detroit and Goff will react to this new Vikings defense, but it will be fun to monitor. I’m expecting either a big game from Goff or a big disappointment. Vikings CB Byron Murphy will not be playing on Sunday.
CONTRARIAN RUNNING BACKS
The three-week absence of Taylor’s thumb injury is over as he’s been practicing this week. Atlanta is a very good run defense. However, Taylor’s last game against Tampa Bay, also a very good run defense, resulted in 91 total yards, over 6 yards per carry, and multiple TDs. Taylor was not efficient before the bye week and his best game of the season against the Bucs was after the bye week, which allowed Taylor’s body had a week to recover. Furthermore, Taylor now has had three weeks to allow his body to recover and feel fresh for this Sunday’s game because he wasn’t recovering from a lower-body injury. The Colts have an above-average rushing offense, no matter who has carried the football this season. Taylor should ignite this run game as the Colts continue their playoff run.
The Green Bay defense will be missing their starting LB De’Vondre Campbell and S Darnell Savage. Starting NT T.J. Slaton, S Rudy Ford, and CB Jaire Alexander are questionable. Also, starting LB Quay Walker has been limited all week with a shoulder injury. The Packers' defense is a below-average run defense, but now they’re injured and will be putting worse defenders on the field. Chuba Hubbard has 24 or more touches in three straight games, despite the game script not being in Carolina’s favor. Hubbard will get touches and an opportunity against backup players or less than 100% defenders.
Week 15 was a nightmare game for Bijan Robinson with eight total touches for 14 yards against an easy run defense in the rain. Why is Robinson on this list? The Colts defense is an even easier run defense than last week and allows the second-most fantasy points to RBs. The Falcons were missing Offensive Lineman Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary last week. Lindstrom was an All-Pro last year and will be playing on Sunday, while McGary is questionable to play. Robinson playing a soft run defense with a better offensive line is an area to capitalize on while people are thinking about last week.
Raheem Mostert missed two practices this week and has scored 20 total TDs on the season. Achane has averaged almost 15 touches per game over the last three weeks and earned 60 or more total yards in each game. If Mostert concedes some work to Achane, it could be valuable with Miami rushing for 26 total TDs in 2023. Dallas has been an inconsistent run defense, which just allowed 266 rushing yards to Buffalo last week. The Cowboys may also be missing starting NT Johnathan Hankins for this game.
Aaron Jones’ first game back was a success last week with 17 touches for 69 total yards while rushing for 4.08 YPC against a defense giving up the least amount of fantasy points. This week Jones will play a defense allowing eighth-most fantasy points to RBs. A.J. Dillon is questionable with a broken thumb, which should funnel more touches to Jones. The game script against a bad Carolina team should also favor touches and goal-line opportunities for Jones.