Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it's not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
CONTRARIAN QUARTERBACKS
The Arizona Cardinals' defense is the second-worst team in the NFL in opponent QB passer rating allowed at 102.3, and they're allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Despite not having WR Drake London, Taylor Heinicke played well in his first start for the Falcons with 288 total yards, one TD, and one INT. Heinicke should play better this week with London returning to the field, playing an easier defense, and becoming more familiar with the offense.
The last three games haven't been kind to Brock Purdy. He went nine straight games without throwing an interception. However, he's thrown five interceptions in those three games and suffered a concussion. Purdy accounted for 422 total yards against Cincinnati in his last game. The Jaguars have a good pass defense, but they've given up yards when facing above-average QBs. Purdy is due a get-right game in the touchdown department. He'll play with all the skill position stars this week, and Trent Williams is questionable.
The passing volume in Washington is massive. Sam Howell has attempted 41 or more passes in five of his last six games. Howell has also thrown three or more TD passes every other week for four weeks. Last week, he threw only one TD, which means this is the big game. If you need more evidence, then defense fantasy points allowed to QBs have also spiked in connection to Howell's big TD games. Atlanta ranked 27th, Philadelphia ranked 31st, and this week, Seattle ranks 25th in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Will Levis proved he wasn't a fluke last week with a good follow-up performance against a solid Pittsburgh defense. Levis faces a much easier Buccaneers pass defense this week, which ranks in the bottom third in most pass defense categories. They also have both starting CBs listed as questionable. The Titans will be without Treylon Burks, but it won't be much of a loss as he's been injured for most of the season. Levis is cheap in a good matchup, which could turn great if the Buccaneers are missing starting CBs.
CONTRARIAN RUNNING BACKS
The Packers' run defense ranks in the bottom half of the NFL unit, which has shown to be vulnerable against quality RBs this season. Jaylen Warren has seen a 40% snap share for seven straight games, and he just produced a season-high 113 total yards last week. Warren has caught three or more passes in seven of the eight games this season. Warren is a cheap option to give solid production if you want to spend big on other parts of your roster. Also, the Packers LB Quay Walker is doubtful to play this week.
David Montgomery has six rushing touchdowns in less than five full games played. He's been a touchdown machine this season on a Lions offense that ranks second in the NFL in yardage. The Chargers rank as a good run defense. Jahymr Gibbs will likely have a bigger touch-share than he did earlier in the season. However, I'm still rolling with Montgomery because of the touchdown odds on a great offense.
The arrow is pointing up for Derrick Henry's production. Over the last five games, Henry has 75 rushing yards or more in four games, 4.4 yards per carry or more in four games, and three receptions or more in three games. Later in the season is when RBs capitalize on worn-down defenses, injuries, and colder weather. Henry's about to enter that time of year and I'm not hesitating to play him, even against a good run defense in Tampa Bay.
Gus Edwards has been consistent this season, with at least 40 rushing yards in eight straight games. He's scored six combined TDs in the last three games. The Cleveland Browns have an elite defense, but the Baltimore Ravens are sixth in the NFL in scoring and offensive yards. This is a matchup of strength, and the Ravens lean on Edwards for overall production and near the goal line. Keaton Mitchell is questionable to play this week with a hamstring injury.
The Packers leaned on Aaron Jones last week with 24 touches for 99 total yards, and they snapped a four-game losing streak. It's difficult to envision them deviating from that game plan when facing a worse run defense this week in Pittsburgh. Jones has struggled with a hamstring injury this season, but 24 touches and his highest snap share of the season give a good sign of things to come in Green Bay.
CONTRARIAN WIDE RECEIVERS
Tyler Boyd looks to capitalize with Tee Higgins ruled out this week, and Ja'Marr Chase is questionable. Boyd is the last man standing and should be rewarded with an abundant amount of targets this week. Six of the last seven games have seen Boyd produce 38 or more receiving yards. He's also scored two touchdowns in his last three games. Joe Burrow has been heating up, and Boyd should capitalize on an opportunity this week.
As noted above, I expect a good outing from Brock Purdy, which directly correlates to Brandon Aiyuk's production. Aiyuk has been a monster this season as he grades out as PFF's third-best overall WR, trailing only Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Last week, Aiyuk had 109 receiving yards, producing 57 or more yards in five straight games. Touchdowns have eluded him since week one, and pure regression should see that correct itself soon.
Mike Evans has at least 49 receiving yards or a touchdown in every game but one this season. In the last three weeks, he's produced two touchdowns and two games with over 80 receiving yards. They play Tennessee this week, who has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and recently traded away their best defensive back. Evans should be a strong play this week with a roster percentage this low.
I discussed Sam Howell as a strong play above, which means doubling down at WR with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Seattle's pass defense has allowed opposing WRs to produce at a top-10 rate. McLaurin has 63 or more yards in four straight games and averages 10 targets per game. Dotson has improved over the last three games, producing 43 or more receiving yards in each game, scoring two touchdowns, and averaging just under nine targets per game. Stacking one or both of these players with Howell is a strong contrarian play.
Zay Jones is out again this week, which lifts the production of all Jaguar pass catchers. Trevor Lawrence has averaged one TD pass per game over his last seven games. The good news is Kirk was a recipient of a TD in two of the last three games. The 49ers defense is a good unit but has been vulnerable to WRs this season.
CONTRARIAN TIGHT ENDS
With Nico Collins already ruled out, Dalton Schultz becomes an even stronger play this week. Schultz has scored a TD in four of his last five games and has gained 61 or more yards in three of his last four games. To add more gas to this fire, Schultz is playing the worst defensive unit against TEs this week.
Luke Musgrave scored his first NFL TD last week and produced a season-high 51 yards. He's produced 30 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games as well. While Christian Watson practiced in full this week, he's been injured for most of the season and hasn't been able to dominate the target share many hoped this off-season. Last week, Musgrave played at his highest snap share since week three, and the chemistry is building with Jordan Love.
Tayson Hill was in this article last week, and somehow, he's low-rostered again after being very productive. Hill is a Swiss army knife for the Saints. He's caught four or more receptions in three of the last four games and produced 50 or more total yards in all of those games. Last week, he caught a TD, threw a TD, and had 15 combined touches. Hill has produced five TDs in his last three games.
New QB Taylor Heinicke might have a better connection with Jonnu Smith than Desmond Ridder. Heinicke gave Smith six targets, and he produced 100 yards and a TD on those opportunities. Drake London returning could hurt Smith's targets, but he's a cheap gamble in a contrarian play.
CONTRARIAN DEFENSES
The Green Bay Packers have scored 20 or fewer points in six straight games. They've averaged 15 points per game over the last four games while facing three of the bottom eight defenses in football. Pittsburgh is a top-10 defensive unit. Jordan Love struggles against pressure, and the Steelers are sixth in the NFL in generating pressure.
Josh Doubs was a fun story last week in leading Minnesota to a win, but it's tough to envision things having such a good outcome every week. Justin Jefferson is someone to monitor if he plays this week. However, the Saints are a top-five NFL defense with one of the best pass-defending units. The Saints rank fourth on 3rd down and first in turnovers forced.