Waivers of the Future: Week 4

Jordan McNamara's Waivers of the Future: Week 4 Jordan McNamara Published 09/26/2023

Waivers of the future will focus on making decisions that improve our odds of our dynasty championship. The back of your dynasty roster should be flexible, with preferences made for players you can use in your lineup during the season.

Quarterbacks

Among the quarterbacks, there are two types of waiver options: those moving up this week and veteran backups.

Moving Up This Week

Jameis Winston is the backup to monitor this week at the quarterback position. Derek Carr suffered a sprained AC joint, and our medical staff thinks he will miss multiple weeks, with a projected return of week 7. Winston has a history of high-level fantasy production, including leading the league in both passing yards and interceptions in 2019. Winston has one of the better supporting casts, including Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas at wide receiver, so he should have QB2-type production in an audition for a future starting opportunity. If you have a need for a quarterback, he warrants a 25% FAAB bid or higher.

Justin Fields suffered a concussion this week and is at risk of missing week 4. If you are tempted to start Peterman in Superflex, you surely have better non-quarterbacks. Do not make a waiver bid on him.

Veteran Backups

As a general rule, you should have a limited number of backup quarterbacks on your monitor list. With roster spots tight, optimized dynasty rosters under 25 spots in Superflex or quarterback premium. If you are in 25 to 35-man rosters and have a roster spot, these quarterbacks are the premium backups:

Running Back

One of the keys to dynasty fantasy football is continuously optimizing your backup running back situation. The last five to ten roster spots on your roster should be very fluid, with little allegiance if the player does not offer the capacity to help your lineup. A constant churn on the back end of your roster is critical.

Moving Up this Week

The following running backs have improved this week and are available in more than 50% of MFL leagues.

Gus Edwards suffered a concussion in week three, which puts his week four status in doubt, while Justice Hill’s status is also in doubt with a toe injury. Melvin Gordon stepped into the lead job in week three and could see a spot start in week four. Unfortunately, Baltimore is playing Cleveland this week, which has been the best defense in football through three weeks. Gordon could be a desperation one-week starter, worth 1-5% in FAAB budget if you are in need of a lineup option in week four.

With Austin Ekeler out with an ankle injury and no firm timeline for return, Joshua Kelley is leading the backfield. However, Kelley missed out on a prime opportunity against an exploitable Minnesota run defense in week three. Isaiah Spiller elevated above rookie Elijah Dotson in week three’s usage and warrants a small addition as an injury-away option if he is available on waivers.

Latavius Murray has been the primary injury-away running back behind James Cook in Buffalo. Murray has surprisingly played ahead of Damien Harris in the backfield. Murray should take a near-minimum bid of FAAB as an injury-away stash on your bench.

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Other Backups

Other backups or free agents with high availability include:

Wide Receivers

The odds wide receivers from the waiver wire will become big difference-makers on your dynasty roster are very small. For every Tyreek Hill, there are 100 Travis Fulghams. Your strategies on the wide receiver position should be to find immediate lineup help or a flip candidate.

Mike Williams suffered a torn ACL in week three which will force him to miss the remainder of the season. His absence will open an opportunity for Quientin Johnston but it has been Joshua Palmer who has been playing ahead of Johnston to date. Palmer has averaged 31 routes per game compared to only 12.7 per game for Johnston. Palmer finished as WR38 in season-long points in 2022 and averaged 10.7 points per game. He is not a primary option in the offense, but he can be a streaming candidate for teams in need of a spot starter. He warrants a 5-10% bid for teams in need of wide receiver help.

Tank Dell was a recommendation of last week's article and promptly blew up for five catches, 145 receiving yards, and a touchdown in week three. Dell is an every-week lineup option at this point and warrants a 25-50% waiver bid if he is still available in your league.

Tight Ends

Tight end in changing circumstances who warrant waiver consideration include:

Durham Smythe was the every down starter in Miami for the first two weeks before Julian Hill took over and ran routes on 68% of the team’s dropbacks compared to 25% for Durham Smythe. Hill was only targeted once, so the broader market is unlikely to catch on to his usage uptick before waivers run. He is fine to leave on waivers at this point in shallow formats but warrants an addition in tight end premium formats.

Cole Turner was mentioned in week three’s last-minute moves as a potential pre-emptive stash with Logan Thomas out for week three. Turner promptly ran a route on 56% of the team’s routes, saw 25% of their targets, and was targeted on 32% of his routes. His usage is extremely encouraging. His workload may be low when Thomas returns, but Turner is an intriguing stash in moderate-depth leagues. He warrants a small addition on FAAB.

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