Waivers of the future will focus on making decisions that improve our odds of our dynasty championship. The back of your dynasty roster should be flexible, with preferences made for players you can use in your lineup during the season.
Quarterbacks
Among the quarterbacks, there are two types of waiver options: those moving up this week and veteran backups.
Moving Up This Week
The Aaron Rodgers era with the New York Jets came to a quick and disappointing end in Week 1. Rogers suffered a torn Achilles, which will keep him out for the entire year. Zach Wilson, the Jets' second overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft who has been a disappointment to date, is slated to take over as the team's starter. After the game, Jets head coach Robert Saleh said that Wilson is their starter for the rest of the year. As the incumbent backup, Wilson should get the first chance, but as a team with real aspirations, look for the team to be in the quarterback market. Veterans like Colt McCoy could be a stopgap option as a backup. Carson Wentz is a free agent with significant starting experience, but he has struggled of late and might not be a good fit for New York. Names like Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Philip Rivers are all likely to be speculated about but are unlikely options. The most likely option is the team brings in a veteran free agent and explores the trade market but starts Wilson in the short term. Wilson warrants a bid in deeper Superflex leagues, but his performance on Monday night did not inspire hope that this is a new and improved quarterback coming into the 2023 season. A low-level bid in the 5 to 10% range in Superflex is warranted, but he is not a target in start-one quarterback leagues.
Veteran Backups
As a general rule, you should have a limited amount of backup quarterbacks on your monitor list. With roster spots tight, optimized dynasty rosters under 25 spots in Superflex or quarterback premium. If you are in 25 to 35-man rosters and have a roster spot, these quarterbacks are the premium backups:
- Mike White, MIA
- Tyler Huntley, BAL
- Cooper Rush, DAL
- Jacoby Brissett, WAS
- Taylor Heinicke, ATL
- Teddy Bridgewater, DET
- Jameis Winston, NO
Running Back
One of the keys to dynasty fantasy football is continuously optimizing your backup running back situation. The last five to ten roster spots on your roster should be very fluid, with little allegiance if the player does not offer the capacity to help your lineup. A constant churn on the back end of your roster is critical.
Moving Up this Week
The following running backs have improved this week and are available in more than 50% of MFL leagues.
- Justice Hill (83% available)
J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 1 that leaves the Baltimore Ravens with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill as internal replacement options. Edwards and Hill split the work in Week 1 as a replacement for Dobbins, but Hill is more available than Edwards on waiver wires. Hill has had a slow start to his career but has both receiving and rushing profiles coming from college that would be a more complete back than Edwards in a more diverse Baltimore offense this year under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Hill deserves a free agent bid something in the 15 to 25% range. If Gus Edwards is also available in a league, prioritize Edwards over Hill, with that same 15 to 25% bid range.
- Sean Tucker (68% available)
As mentioned in Week 1's Last Minute Moves, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made Ke'Shawn Vaughn inactive in Week 1. This gave Sean Tucker their 2023 undrafted rookie an opportunity to showcase behind Rachaad White. Tucker split time with Chase Edmonds but profiles as the better primary running back if White gets injured. His place on the depth chart over Vaughn is notable particularly given Tucker's late start to the preseason with a prolonged clearance process for a heart issue that popped up at the NFL combine. Typically, undrafted rookies are low probability bets. However, Tucker was a day two type prospects who fell out of the draft because of that heart issue. Now cleared, Tampa has a second day of the NFL Draft quality running back on their depth chart that could begin to push for more work against White. White finished with the worst rushing yards over expectation per carry in the league in Week 1, a place where he struggled in 2022. Tucker could find himself playing with an opportunity in this office sooner rather than later. Get in front of that by putting in a waiver bid of something in the 1 to 5% range, and stash Tucker on your bench for the long-term.
- Joshua Kelly (57% available)
Joshua Kelley and Austin Ekeler split time in Week 1, and the Los Angeles Chargers had the most efficient run game of the week. Their success rate on rushes was a 100th-percentile performance, which is a good sign for the beginning of the new Kellen Moore era as offensive coordinator. Ekeler suffered an ankle injury, and we are projecting a Week 3 return. With Ekeler expected to miss a week or more, Kelley is a priority addition and should be a top-20 projection in a game Ekeler misses. The Chargers have a much more difficult matchup in Week 2 against the Titans, but Kelley's consolidated role should give you a flex option with Ekeler out of the lineup.
- Kyren Williams (63% available)
Kyren Williams had a quality workshare in Week 1, leading the team in snaps, including on early downs, third downs, and the two-minute drill, while splitting goal line snaps with Cam Akers, who each had two goal line snaps. Williams relegated Akers to work on the type of early down, non-premium touch role in the offense, that will make Akers essentially unplayable. Williams is the Rams' starting running back at present and warrants a bid in the range of 25% of your FAAB budget.
Other Backups
Other backups or free agents with high availability include:
- Kareem Hunt (50% available)
- Jerome Ford (55% available)
- Rico Dowdle (42% available)
- Ty Chandler (60% available)
- Leonard Fournette (60% available)
- Keaontay Ingram (71% available)
- Matt Breida (78% available)
- Salvon Ahmed (89% available)
Wide Receivers
The odds wide receivers from the waiver wire will become big difference-makers on your dynasty roster are very small. For every Tyreek Hill, there are 100 Travis Fulghams. Your strategies on the wide receiver position should be to find immediate lineup help or a flip candidate.
Rookie Puka Nacua had 10 receptions, 119 receiving yards, and 15 targets in his Week 1 breakout performance, while teammate Tutu Atwell added 6 receptions and 119 receiving yards on 8 targets. Nacua was one of the most productive receivers in college football last year and has an open depth chart to continue producing, particularly with Cooper Kupp on injured reserve. Nacua warrants a 10-20% FAAB bid this week, particularly with the quality play of Matthew Stafford in Week 1. Atwell is smaller and a more limited target candidate, so he warrants a 5-10% FAAB bid this week.
Diontae Johnson suffered a hamstring injury we expect to keep him out several weeks. This creates an opportunity for Allen Robinson to play a full-time role in the Pittsburgh offense. Robinson tied George Pickens for the most snaps among Pittsburgh wide receivers (56) and a team-high in targets (8) and receiving yards (64). Robinson has had a difficult time the past two years, but his performance in Week 1 is an encouraging sign he can capitalize on Johnson's injury. He warrants a 5% waiver bid if available in your league.
The pecking order of the New England offense has been a question mark throughout much of the offseason. In week 1, Kendrick Bourne stepped up, leading the team in routes (54), targets (11), touchdowns (2), and wide receiver snaps (73) while tying for the team league in receptions (6) and receiving yards (64). Mac Jones attempted 54 passing attempts, which is more than you will expect in normal Patriot game scripts, but Bourne is locked in as the top wide receiver for the New England Patriots and is in the WR3 consideration each week.
Tight End
Tight end in changing circumstances who warrant waiver consideration include:
Greg Dulcich suffered a hamstring strain in Week 1, which is expected to keep him out for several weeks. Adam Trautman saw the starter volume in Week 1, playing 46 of the 64 snaps and running routes on 23 of the 37 routes, a role that should expand without Dulcich in the lineup. Trautman warrants a small bid and could be a weekly flex consideration in 2PPR formats for tight ends.
Hunter Henry posted the TE1 week but is only rostered in 46% of MFL leagues. Henry is the clear TE1 in the New England offense ahead of Mike Gesicki and is a candidate to lead the team in receiving yards. Henry should be a weekly lineup consideration, and if he is not rostered in your league, he warrants a 5% FAAB bid, with bigger bids warranted in premium scoring formats.