Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | JULY 10 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Patrick | WR | DEN | 176.6 | 11.0 |
| 2 | DeVante Parker | WR | NE | 196.0 | 9.5 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 126.0 | 5.9 |
| 4 | Taysom Hill | TE | NO | 157.5 | 4.1 |
| 5 | Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | 58.9 | 4.0 |
| 6 | Terrace Marshall Jr | WR | CAR | 206.7 | 4.0 |
| 7 | Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PHI | 167.9 | 3.7 |
| 8 | Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | 119.2 | 3.4 |
| 9 | David Montgomery | RB | DET | 79.1 | 3.3 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 162.4 | 3.0 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/3/2023-07/10/23***
We are officially in the lull of ADP shifting, with the last few weeks not much changing in the NFL news landscape. Things are getting closer to heating up, and we will surely see some bigger swings in ADP as camps start to be more active and players get talked up in the media. We also should start to see some veterans sign over the next few weeks, and that could really help shake up some ADP. In my recent drafting over the last couple of weeks, I have struggled to see many edges in ADP as it feels rather repetitive lately. The biggest riser this week is Tim Patrick, who continues to get solid reports out of Denver media and is up nearly a round. DeVante Parker is next up, and with his new contract a week ago, his ADP continues to rise. We are seeing small rises from valuable depth pieces in Taysom Hill, Terrace Marshall, and Kenneth Gainwell. Diontae Johnson and David Montgomery are this week's top-half-of-drafts biggest risers as we see that their ADP might have been wrong and is currently adjusting to a more stable position.
We always want to be aware of what players are on the rise and why they might be on the rise. There is still a lot of value in these types of players, even though their ADP is on the rise. I would say players that were last-round picks and are moving up into rounds 16 and 17 might be players I want to back off of some and look for alternatives in similar situations that might not have been identified by drafters as risers just yet. For me, that is Parker and Marshall on this list as those are two players that maybe if you haven't been drafting in the last round, you might have missed out on the value as they continue to rise.
The players on this list that I want to continue to draft at a value are Taysom Hill, Kenneth Gainwell, Romeo Doubs, and Kyler Murray. The reason for that is the current price and the upside that they all have make them easy clicks to build out a solid roster construction.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | JULY 10 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyquan Thornton | WR | NE | 171.3 | 7.3 |
| 2 | Jalin Hyatt | WR | NYG | 195.5 | 5.0 |
| 3 | Jayden Reed | WR | GB | 168.8 | 4.3 |
| 4 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | NE | 113.9 | 4.2 |
| 5 | Chase Claypool | WR | CHI | 210.4 | 3.6 |
| 6 | Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | 135.6 | 3.6 |
| 7 | Michael Pittman Jr | WR | IND | 66.1 | 3.6 |
| 8 | Alec Pierce | WR | IND | 152.9 | 3.5 |
| 9 | Pierre Strong Jr | RB | NE | 202.7 | 3.4 |
| 10 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 132.1 | 3.3 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 07/3/2023-07/10/23***
With the rise of DeVante Parker as the 2nd biggest riser of the week, we get our top faller of the week in Tyquan Thornton, who is down 7.3 ADP spots. You can also add in teammate Juju Smith-Schuster who is number 4 on this list and down 4.2 ADP spots. All three of these Patriots wide receivers look to have a role locked in so I don't think any are bad draft picks right now and are actually all decent adds as your WR6+ types of picks.
This is an interesting list, as the top eight players are all wide receivers, and on Underdog, we usually see a premium at the position when it comes to ADP. It is a postion that you have to overpay for in a 0.5 PPR structure. Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce are two Colts wide receivers that find their way into the top 10 as the public is unsure of how to value the Colts offense right now. Pittman was a bit of a darling last offseason and gave us a somewhat disappointing season when it was all said and done. For me, I like Pittman as a best ball play this year at a much cheaper price of admission. Often we see prior season bias roll into the new season, and this is when you can find value in players. Michael Gallup is another name that I have been rather high on this offseason as I feel like his price is not correct, so when I see him falling now, I take notice, and maybe I shift him down my rankings a few picks. I still want to draft him, but maybe he is a round discount now as the public is backing off.
WEEKLY NEWS AND NOTES
- RB Javonte Williams - Plans to be ready for training camp - Just a simple headline like this will drive up his ADP in this slow time of year.
- WR Nico Collins - Is being hounded with targets during spring ball
- TE Taysom Hill - Cound catch more passes in 2023
- WR DeVante Parker - Agrees to a three-year $33 million contract
- RB Devon Achane - Standing out early in the offseason
- QB Brock Purdy - On track to start in Week 1.
BEST BALL INDUSTRY NEWS
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 240,000/677,376 (35%) full currently. This year the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 18% full with 47,000/261,000 entries.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 10,800/111,252 full. They also a $3 entry Mini that is 21,700/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 325,000/1,178,496 full. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!