MISSION
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.
Why not both?
Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.
The goal of this feature is to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.
The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis, making the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas and his stints at Rice and Houston.
Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, which is available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often toward players who flash elite athletic ability, and I err more toward players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 7'S CLIFF'S NOTES
This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list, and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.
- Jonathan Taylor is Back, But Zack Moss Shouldn't Be Going Anywhere
- Unleashing Kincaid: Why It's Tough Being Patient, But Worth It
- Jalin Hyatt Watch: Should We Have Brian Daboll or Tyrod Taylor to Thank?
- Myles Garrett's Case for MVP
- Defying the Odds: Terry McLaurin
- Emerging Fantasy Value: Demario Douglas
- Dynasty Monitor-Deep Stash: QB Tyson Bagent
- Jordan Addison's Monday Night in the Spotlight and RSP Analysis
- How to Approach the NFL's Murky RB Scenarios
- Fresh Fish
Let's roll...
1. Jonathan Taylor is Back, But Zack Moss Shouldn't Be Going Anywhere
Follow the money, and there's no doubt that Taylor will resume his role as the primary ballcarrier and focal point of the Colts' offense. But watch the film, and there's no doubt that Moss should remain a significant part of the scheme.
Look at Cleveland, who paid Nick Chubb in 2021 and still had a productive Kareem Hunt coexisting with Chubb in the Browns' offense. Paying one a large sum shouldn't mean benching or severely limiting the other, especially on a team that's starting a high-end backup at quarterback in the place of a talented rookie whose initial phase of rookie-like starts has been delayed until 2024 due to injury.
Moss was a good prospect at Utah who lost his way early in his career at Buffalo. He had to learn some decision-making nuances with running the football that he couldn't get away with in the NFL.
You know the story: As Moss struggled to learn them fast enough and the Bills left him on the bench, it's not hard to imagine that Moss lost his confidence. When Moss' future as a Bill appeared left for dead in the spring of 2022, he turned things around and forced Buffalo to keep him on the roster. The Bills eventually traded Moss in the middle of the year to the Colts, and here we are.
And where we are is a running back who has returned to his pre-draft form. He's shifty, powerful, and a high-effort player who has proven worthwhile as a pass protector and a receiver.
Zack Moss regained his pre-draft confidence and Grant Delpit missing his second opportunity at minimizing a gain in the run game. pic.twitter.com/klrAVnCBJk
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
#ColtsNation
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
Not intended, but it looks like Jonathan Taylor's negotiations and injury helped the team get a second back worthy of a 1-2 punch.
Moss and Taylor both looking strong pic.twitter.com/fUUOC4zZmR
Until the Colts prove their plan is to limit Moss' volume to the point that he cannot deliver bye-week or flex-play value, it's wise to stay the course with Moss as a potential Hunt-like complement to Taylor.
Speaking of Taylor, this week's game was the best indicator that he's now in game shape to deliver starter production. With or without Moss on the field at the same time, it's encouraging that the Colts' are leveraging Taylor's receiving skills.
Remember when folks looked at Wisconsin box scores and said Jonathan Taylor wasn't much of a receiver?
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
Yeah, me too. #ColtsNation pic.twitter.com/bNEKhWyigG
In contrast to the Bears PA Throwback Screen, the #Colts' QB isn't nearly as detailed with play fake and Jonathan Taylor has to do more to create a strong gain. pic.twitter.com/MbOQJ8czst
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
Of course, you're also getting the breakaway speed and pile-moving strength that makes Taylor a high-ceiling talent.
Classic short-yardage Jonathan Taylor pic.twitter.com/AvfqinFR70
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
Taylor returns to every-week starter status. Moss should be regarded as a capable RB3 until he goes multiple weeks (2-3) without enough volume to expect fantasy value.
It might prove wise to start Moss ahead of several runners in backfield carousels replacing an injured starter. This includes the backfield replacements vying for touches with the Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers.
There's more about how to approach these murky backfields later in this feature.
2. Unleashing Kincaid: Why It's Tough Being Patient, But Worth It
The current TE21 in PPR fantasy formats with a hardly robust 7.7 yards per catch, Dalton Kincaid, has been a test of patience for fantasy GMs who took the chance on the rookie because of his compelling physical and technical skills.
I've preached patience with Kincaid since Week 1, and that continued this week when readers and listeners asked for waiver-wire advice. Many of you had little choice but to cut Kincaid but I found that at least half of those asking me a question about potentially dropping Kincaid have been hanging onto a player who doesn't provide the high ceiling of value that Kincaid has - value that we've seen on the field weekly, but lacking in target volume and target distance.
This week, the Bills began unlocking the door for Kincaid's game to run through, and the rookie responded with the sixth-most fantasy production for tight ends this week, at least before Monday night. Unfortunately, Buffalo didn't give Kincaid a significant number of intermediate and vertical routes commensurate with his skill. However, there were more targets near or past the first-down marker, which is a laughable sign of progress if you'd rather not cry about them using this racehorse as a dimestore mechanical pony ride.
Sight for sore eyes: A route for Dalton Kincaid that's targeted beyond the sticks! pic.twitter.com/3Esay5pHTm
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
Yep. That's the longest play Kincaid made as a route runner in this game and one of the longest of the year. You should still be holding out hope because the Bills' defense is not the same tough unit it was prior to injuries, and it will force the offense to be more aggressive.
Kincaid thrived at Utah as a vertical option, and I've shown the refinement he has after the catch. Still, here are a few reminders. Also, note most of the scenarios where Kincaid earned the ball against the Patriots because they were contextually heightened situations.
3rd down conversion for Dalton Kincaid pic.twitter.com/F5crqMAW4U
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
Dalton Kincaid with excellent pad level and attack after the catch pic.twitter.com/xUBnLCxSvO
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
Good transition by Dalton Kincaid pic.twitter.com/KsLMSN5Rab
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2023
One of the catches I didn't include was a key fourth-and-short conversion on a schemed play to him that got the Bills inside the Patriots' two-yard-line late in the game. This set up a touchdown to take the lead.
The Bills haven't even unleashed Kincaid, but the increase in targets already earned Kincaid a spot just outside the top five at the position this week. If that volume continues, he'll outplay his draft position. If Josh Allen begins targeting Kincaid on trust throws up the seam and at the boundary, Kincaid could have a run of elite weeks.
He's one of the few players this year where I'm willing to risk this level of patience.