The Top 10 from Week 6

Matt Waldman's The Top 10 from Week 6 Matt Waldman Published 10/09/2023

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

Why not both?

Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.

The goal of this feature is to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis, making the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown has told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas as well as his stints at Rice and Houston.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, which is available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often toward players who flash elite athletic ability, and I err more toward players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 4'S CLIFF'S NOTES

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list, and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

Let's roll...

1. Cooper Kupp Is Back, But Puka Nacua Isn't Leaving

The concern among fantasy GMs during the weeks leading up to Kupp's return was the All-Pro receiver supplanting Nacua in the Rams' passing attack and rendering the rookie an afterthought. There's no doubt that Kupp is the top option and L.A. wasted no time making it clear. You only need to view the box score to get that idea.

The good news is that Nacua's fantasy value isn't going away. This shouldn't have been a significant fear because Matthew Stafford has the skills to support 3-4 fantasy contributors in the passing game. The root concern was the idea that Nacua couldn't produce significant value as a perimeter option and he was benefitting from the two-way-go's that comes from playing in from the slot.

Nacua's performance against the Eagles on Sunday went a long way toward dispelling those fears. Nacua faced a pair of veteran cornerbacks on the perimeter in man-to-man matchups and showed that he could win with physicality and technique. He also showed that when veteran defenders weren't fooled, he could still make plays in tight quarters.

Good NFL starters win when everything doesn't go right with the play or the defender plays the route well enough to at least present a minor distraction at a key point. Although he had a key fumble on a screen during a second-half drive that impacted the game's outcome, Nacua handled coverage well. His value as a fantasy WR1 may decline as the season progresses, but he will remain no worse than a fantasy WR3.

Kupp looks like he hasn't missed a beat. FOX analyst Greg Olsen may have said otherwise on a pair of vertical routes where he speculated Kupp was a step away from the football. However, Olsen has to make these judgments in-game and only has the benefit of seeing a replay once or twice, at best. If Kupp was gassed as badly as Olsen speculated, he probably wouldn't have maintained the 1-2 steps of separation against the coverage during those routes. These were overthrows.

Even so, Olsen also acknowledged how well Kupp performed overall and that performance came more often as the slot receiver earning those two-way-go scenarios.

Kupp is arguably the best receiver in the league at winning two-way-go's. While these scenarios naturally hold an inherent advantage for the receiver and can produce a lot of false positives during training camp practices, Kupp is a tier above most receivers who earn this inflated praise.

The options who benefit from inflated praise often win to-way-go's in practice with inefficient playground moves that don't line up with the quarterback's timing during live action. They also lack great counter moves with their hands and don't hold up as well to physical play.

Kupp doesn't have these problems. When he was at the Senior Bowl, the coaching staff employed a drill that narrowed the width of the field for the receiver and corner to force the receiver to win two-way-go's in more realistic scenarios for live action.

Other than Kupp, none of the receivers won the matchups during the 5-6 reps they had, including Zay Jones. Kupp won every rep and had a different method each time.

When you take a player with Kupp's skills and leverage them with teammates who have the speed and physicality to clear out the field for two-way-go scenarios, you have a strategy that's difficult to stop.

Once teams play Kupp tighter, he can beat you vertically. I'm not talking about 50-yard bombs, but sail routes and deep over routes where he can get on top of a press defender early and earn chunk gains of 25-40 yards.

He's a big-play slot weapon as well as a volume receiver. Paired with an emerging starter like Nacua and the much-improved Tutu Atwell, Kupp looks poised to raise the play of the Rams' passing game and fantasy teams that were patient enough to wait on him.

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2. Kyle Pitts Emerged from the Abyss, But Only to Take A Deep Breath

There's plenty of video evidence that Pitts hasn't finished recovering from his offseason knee surgery. The Week 4 match-up began with Pitts limping through his initial release from the line of scrimmage. The broadcast team in Week 5 casually mentioned Pitts' slow recovery timetable during the game.

Mention Pitts to the fantasy-playing public and the disappointment stems from otherwordly expectations rooted in his athletic ability. What we see against the Texans is a player who is giving us a sneak preview of what he may look like 10-12 years from now as an aging veteran during the twilight of his career who can still deliver fantasy starter production based on volume.

Pitts' work against the Texans would be an acceptable level of weekly production given the circumstances of his recovery. Expecting Pitts to earn these targets on a weekly basis with Desmond Ridder isn't.

Although the Falcons are standing up for Ridder after Atlanta's victory on Sunday, the basis of the media narrative has been a referendum on Ridder's leadership, not his quarterbacking. He still has a ways to go as a decision-maker, and the Texans have faced Lamar Jackson in a new offense, three quarters from Gardner Minshew, Trevor Lawrence, and Kenny Pickett.

I'm not convinced Ridder's 329-yard day is the beginning of the light coming on for the young quarterback. Still, if you have Pitts, it's unlikely you'll earn fantasy value commensurate with his pre-draft ADP in a trade.

If you can get a top-10 TE value for him, I'd take that risk. Otherwise, hold onto Pitts, hope Ridder builds on this weekend, and if not, roll with another option until Pitts draws matchups with teams that rank in the top half of the league in generosity to tight ends.

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3. Bobby Slowik Weaponized C.J. Stroud's Weakness against Atlanta

As shared here last week, Stroud has performed admirably for a rookie, looking like the player he was at Ohio State. This is the best expectation one should have for a rookie quarterback during his first 6-8 weeks as a starter.

We should also expect that a rookie starter also demonstrates key flaws in his game that carried over from his collegiate years. One of the weak spots of the promising Stroud's quarterbacking has been his accurate assessment of defensive backs with leverage over the top of a receiver.

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