The Top 10 from Week 15

Matt Waldman's The Top 10 from Week 15 Matt Waldman Published 12/18/2023

MISSION

You know the mission. If you don't, read it here (and thanks for checking this out for the first time)

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 15'S CLIFF'S NOTES

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list. After your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents with the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

Let's roll...


1. Justin Jefferson Looks Great: Does It Even Matter?

Who is the best receiver in football? If you answer the young vet from LSU, there's a two in five chance you're correct based on the usual five culprits considered the elite pass-catchers in the NFL.

Whether Jefferson would return healthy enough from a hamstring injury to play to his potential was the greatest concern about his fantasy playoff value — at least before Kirk Cousins suffered his season-ending injury. Josh Dobbs made a great first impression, but hope faded fast and the Vikings are on Nick Mullens and rookie Jaren Hall as the backup. Entering this weekend, we were left wondering if there's a Minnesota quarterback who can help Jefferson deliver reasonable fantasy value commensurate with his ability if Jefferson is healthy.

Against the Bengals, Jefferson answered the original concern about his health with three plays that could be featured in a clinic on receiver play.

Three catches aren't enough for fantasy reliability in a given week. Fortunately, Mullens found Jefferson on 7 of 10 targets for 84 yards and earned 303 yards and 2 scores, providing fantasy value to Minnesota's trio of Jefferson, Jalen Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. This is the outcome we'd expect against the seventh-most generous defense to fantasy quarterbacks.

With Detroit and Green Bay the final two games on the fantasy playoff schedule, fantasy GMs with any member of the Vikings' receiving trio on their rosters should feel better about using them. The Lions are the sixth-most generous to fantasy QBs this year. Although the Packers are 19th on the list, they are 15th over the past five weeks, and this doesn't count the 381-yard, 4-touchdown pounding they took from Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers at Lambeau Field this weekend.

One of the most valuable insights from Jefferson's three plays above is that two of the three targets were tight-window plays. Great route runners inspire trust from veteran quarterbacks and Mullens is a veteran, even if his opportunities have been limited compared to regular starters.

As long as Mullens is in the lineup, start Jefferson with confidence. It's best to deduct Jefferson's projected value a tier from his ceiling of potential, but that deduction still makes him a worthwhile asset.

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2. Pre-Order Discount For the RSP Rookie Draft Guide

Everything I share in this column and other fantasy work is either a product of my work with the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) or informs the work I do with it. If you're new to my work and have seen my reference to the RSP or you've thought about getting the RSP but never have, I run an annual early-bird pre-order discount that began last Thursday and runs through Thursday, December 21st.

The RSP is a pre-draft/post-draft analysis of at least 150 rookies at the fantasy positions of QB, RB, WR, and TE entering its 19th year of publication. I publish the pre-draft every April 1 and the post-draft no later than a week after the NFL Draft.

You can pre-order here. You'll create a login and a password, and I'll email you when the pre-draft and post-draft are ready for download from the site.

The RSP is written with both a fantasy football and real football perspective. If you weren't aware, the RSP is one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL personnel staff (scouts/management), according to my source, SMU's Director of Recruiting, Alex Brown, who meets weekly with evaluators as the essential duties of his job at SMU as well as past gigs at Rice and Houston.

I've also done some consulting recently with a known quarterback coach for his clients Brock Purdy and Anthony Richardson.

I'm sharing this because the RSP is a detailed and unique evaluation process that often leads to a departure from the consensus draft media analysis.

RSP subscribers have reaped the benefits over the years, most recently by exploiting the values of high-profile players who weren't rated as highly by others (links are to sample RSP scouting reports):

On the flip side, the departure from the consensus also leads to cautioning my readers of players who may be widely and highly regarded but lack the foundational skills to immediately deliver to expectation:

And, of course, there are also plenty of examples of players who are annually drafted late, if at all, who show the skills to contribute, if not emerge as starters that the RSP identifies early. This helps re-draft and dynasty GMs identify value from the free agent pool as well as leverage favorable trades. Isiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, and Zonovan Knight are good examples from recent seasons.

The RSP is available for $19.95 through December 22nd and $21.95 afterward. You get the pre-draft, post-draft, and email newsletter updates throughout the year.

A portion of sales proceeds (over $60,000 since 2012) has been going to Darkness to Light — an organization devoted to training individuals and communities on how to prevent and properly address sexual abuse.

You can go here for details on what you get with the purchase — it's a lot, and it's valuable for fantasy GMs.

You can go here to see what others think about the RSP or ask around. Most are pleasantly shocked, and most become annual subscribers. I'm sure you'll find folks who will remember my misses and like anyone in this industry, I have them and will continue to have them.

I will also continue to improve. That's always been an embedded feature of my process by design. It's a transparent process that's in the publication. Here's a sample of some of my evaluation methods.

Fantasy Advice: If you enjoy and value what I do here, on my podcast, TikTok, my site, my YouTube channel, and Twitter, the RSP is the best content I put out. If you prefer to wait until the pre-order discount is over — many tell me they do — I appreciate that as well.

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3. Jayden Reed Pre-Draft Scouting Report

I gave Reed an Immediate Starter grade (85.5) in my Rookie Scouting Portfolio evaluation process and compared his style and talent along the spectrum of Stefon Diggs as the long-term aspiration, Laveranues Coles as the closest current comp, and K.J. Hamler if the bottom fell out of Reed's game.

Here's my elevator pitch on Reed from the 2023 RSP:

Reed is a difficult boom-bust evaluation, if you define the boom as elite and the bust as valued contributor. From the standpoint of becoming a professional football player, Reed isn’t a boom-bust prospect.

However, if you’re trying to ascertain how good Reed can be the swing between a top-12 producer and receiver who rarely delivers season-long production inside the top 36 receivers is big. This quandary underscores how small the margin is between good and great.

It comes down to this with Reed: If his hands position at the catch point were a little sharper and his release and route game a little more refined against top-tier cornerback prospects, he’d be the top receiver on my board.

Fact is, Reed's pass-catching techniques can remain as they are and he could still deliver as a quality NFL starter. At the same time, a few mishandled targets early in his career could alter his confidence and his team’s and change the perception of his future value.

If he holds up well against top cornerbacks at the catch-point and as a route runner, a few lapses with hands positions won’t be a major concern. If he doesn’t and he doesn’t refine these two areas to razor-sharp precision, he could wind up a bigger version of K.J. Hamler—a compelling athlete with a contributor status off the bench.

If he shuts the doors on these concerns—and his film shows he’s more than capable of doing so—he could earn legitimate comparisons to Stefon Diggs.

Reed consistently wins tight-window targets thanks to his positioning at the catch point. He knows how earn position late in the target’s trajectory and protect the ball when possible. He can take contact and maintain possession—even when making adjustments high, low, or well away from his frame.

The biggest issue with Reed’s pass-catching is that his hands can be too wide of the other and the ball slips through. He’s not a clap-attack receiver as much as he fails to get his hands completely together with targets where he’s making adjustments to earn position.

If ticking off the list of things Reed can do as a route runner, the sum of the parts would place him in the highest tier of the RSP’s evaluation. However, he has to prove he can win more often against physical and savvy cornerbacks during his releases and stems.

Reed also has to do a more to setup defenders on vertical routes in the same way he can with shorter stems. And, his intermediate breaks need more snap when turning inside or outside—especially against defenders capable of tight coverage. If Reed can improve in these areas, he could play all three receiver positions in the NFL.

Reed excels after the catch. He’s a skilled return specialist with kickoffs and punts and his eye for rushing lanes translates well to the receiving game.

Reed is patient with blocks, he anticipates lanes that open with or without blocks, and he’s a mature creator when in tight quarters with unblocked defenders surrounding him. He’ll take what’s given to him downhill, but he knows when to incorporate his toolbox of moves to generate lanes that didn’t appear to exist.

A tenacious blocker when he earns good position early, Reed can get better in this arena when he continues to refine his strikes. He’s an asset with or without the ball and at various spots on the field as a receiver, a runner, and a return specialist.

The difference between good and great is a big swing in terms of production and that’s where Reed’s NFL potential is teetering. I’d be willing to make the investment if his off-field and injury history (beyond what the public knows) checks out.

I'm still not convinced Reed will become an elite fantasy producer. I am convinced he'll remain a good fantasy starter with multiple paths to earning points in a young and promising offense.

If you've been keeping score this past month, I listed Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft as potential role-player saviors for the fantasy playoffs. Both delivered this weekend as leading components of the Packers' passing game. They overshadowed Romeo Doubs in the process, but not Reed.

The reason: Reed's ability to play inside and outside and his potential to touch the ball as a runner. Reed may not be the top candidate in any given week to lead the Packers' passing game, but he has proven that he's the most consistent scorer. He has only led Green Bay's receivers in the box score in 30 percent of this year's games, but he has delivered at least 8 PPR fantasy points in 60 percent of contests, which, at worst, has made him a viable starter in 4-receiver lineups.

Since Week 7, Reed has been PPR WR10. The only rookie who has been better has been Rashee Rice by 0.6 points. A big boost to his value has been his work as a runner, topping all receivers with 121 rushing yards, and his 2 scores on the ground are second to Deebo Samuel's 4. Reed's 12.1 yards per rush on 10 touches (the second-highest total among receivers) is also tops in the league.

I'm in six fantasy leagues. All six squads are in the playoffs. Reed is on half of them — all dynasty or keeper squads.

He has been a reliable starter and a timely sub on receiver depth charts that include Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, and Chris Godwin. Most of these leagues allow me to start four receivers.

Reed is on two of my three wildcard squads and a big reason I'm looking good to win both those contests.

While I get occasional trolling about my evaluation of Hakeem Butler five years ago, it's worth noting that I've learned a thing for two since then despite it worth mentioning that even before those lessons, I was on top of a lot of players outside the consensus — Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Michael Thomas among them.

Still, it's not just about the wins vs losses on players working out. The most important thing is learning the game and how to best apply that knowledge as a scout.

So I studied the work of a wide receiver coach who tutors pro players past and present like Julian Edelman, Wicks, and Olamide Zaccheaus among others. I revised my criteria for studying the position and developed a far greater technical understanding of the position while taking years of data and reprioritizing how I value specific skills, traits, and concepts.

Since Butler? I've touted A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave as immediate strong fits when the consensus saw otherwise. I didn't retreat dramatically on Ja'Marr Chase's preseason drops and touted him and Jaylen Waddle as the two most immediately impactful rookies. I never stopped sharing the love on CeeDee Lamb.

I also explained why Chase Claypool's temporary production would be short-lived, why Quentin Johnston needs more work to match his draft capital, why Waddle was a better immediate option than DeVonta Smith, and why Drake London's speed wasn't an issue but Treylon Burks' speed wasn't going to immediately erase his technical gaffes.

I still have misses. I'm still going to have misses. However, I'm still a student of the game and dedicated to continuous improvement with a transparent evaluation process. It's why I'm 19 years strong in this industry as an independent scout, and trust me, if it were just a labor of love, I'd be out of this profession a decade ago.

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4. The Ups and Downs of Tee Higgins with Jake Browning

Tee Higgins had a pair of drops and an unofficial entry that could be the favorite for the NFL's Catch of the Year.

One of the big differences between Jake Browning and Joe Burrow is velocity. Although Burrow lacks a special arm, he delivers the ball into tight coverage on vertical routes with quicker timing. Part of that timing is due to a lower target trajectory that comes from better arm talent.

Burrow's throws on the move to the boundary against tight coverage that Higgins has won over the years are part of what makes Burrow who he is as a top-tier talent. He can place the ball in a spot where the defensive back is still earning his position to defend the ball as Higgins makes the catch. Browning's throws take more time and Higgins' coverage has a better position more often.

Browning's accuracy deteriorates in the vertical game at a range where he must sacrifice velocity for distance. That range is shorter than most starting quarterbacks and he lacks the elite mobility and placement to compensate 1:1 for the lack of zip.

If Browning is forced to lean harder on the vertical passing game, this will hurt Higgins's top-end potential more than Chase.

Although you're going to hear that Higgins is having a bad year. He's done enough lately to justify starting him as your WR2 in lineups. Browning is a big reason why.

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5. Why Jake Browning Works As A Fantasy Asset

So far, the Bengals' aerial attack is still a fantasy value. Since Browning became the starter, Higgins is WR21 in PPR and Chase is WR10. Most impressive of all, Browning is fantasy football's QB2 during this span. Although he can muscle the ball out of trouble, Browning has shown the necessary aggression, timing, and placement with quick throws up the boundary and longer-developing plays in the middle of the field to manage Cincinnati's offense at a high level.

While the level of competition is a factor with Browning's gaudy numbers thus far, not every opponent was as bad as Jacksonville's bottom-feeding defense.

Browning has also faced the Steelers and Colts, who are statistically mid-tier passing defenses alongside the Vikings, but Pittsburgh and Minnesota were missing key players in recent weeks. While I wouldn't say Browning is purely a product of bad defense, he's not exactly proving his worth against top units.

With Minkah Fitzpatrick returning to health, we might see Browning's production decline from elite status next week in a rematch with the Steelers as well as a trip to Arrowhead to face a stingy squad of Chiefs. Maybe the return of Denzel Ward will help Cleveland slow Browning in Week 17, but the loss of Denzel Ward and an ailing Myles Garrett may make life easier for Browning than it appears on paper.

As I advised a few weeks ago, continue valuing JaMarr Chase as a low-end WR1. Higgins is a reasonable high-end WR3 with greater upside. I wouldn't shy away from starting them. Browning has been an excellent match-up starter. If you're considering Browning versus options ranked outside the top 10-12 passers over the next two weeks, that's reasonable. If you have a solid top-10 passer, only the worst possible match-ups and/or windy-wet conditions should tip the scales in favor of Browning.

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6. Keep Tabs on Tre Tucker

Tucker's RSP pre-draft grade was on the cusp of the Contributor Tier, meaning he can produce at a starter level if he's in a role that plays well to his strengths, but those strengths may be limited enough that anything demanded of him outside that scope of work will lead to diminishing returns in production.

K.J. Hamler was the player I mentioned in Jayden Reed's evaluation as the worst-case scenario; Hamler is Tucker's most realistic comparison right now. If Tucker can dramatically improve his game as a route runner against tight man-to-man coverage and tightens up his lapses with catching specific targets, he could have Jaylen Waddle's game as an aspirational comparison that isn't the pipe dream it appears to be right now.

Still, earning a comparison to what Hamler was capable of doing is no joke for an NFL prospect, and we saw some of that from Tucker on Thursday night against the Chargers. Although Waddle doesn't earn the late motion in the Dolphins offense, he'd be more than capable of executing that role if Miami didn't have Tyreek Hill. We saw a little of Tucker in a Hill-like role this week.

Tucker is a more powerful runner than his size would lead many to believe. Combined with his speed, it makes getting the ball into space a worthwhile aim for the Raiders.

While I wondered if he'd begin his NFL career as a gadget in the slot, Hill is illustrating the improvement he showed during his final year at Cincinnati is helping him earn an opportunity to become a fixture in the Raiders' offense sooner than later.

Despite the two scores on three catches against the Chargers, let's project that time will come later than the 2023 fantasy playoffs. Other than last week, Tucker has only earned two receptions in four other games. He's a rotational contributor with big-play value but a high-variance option for fantasy GMs.

With the Chiefs and Broncos next on the schedule, Tucker is an intriguing addition to the back end of your roster (at best). See if he earns more volume with success in Week 16 before remotely considering him as a viable starter for your team's WR4 spot in Week 17.

If you're desperate, that's another matter entirely. He may even show up as a Replacements candidate.

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7. Trey Sermon Sighting

My analysis of Sermon's performance against the Steelers is what many of you have been waiting for this week. The third-year runner earned a significant workload alongside second-year back Tyler Goodson in the Colts' offense. Both delivered boxscore production that's worth your consideration if in need of a spot starter off the waiver wire if Zack Moss' arm injury and Jonathan Taylor's rehab of his thumb require another week off.

Overall, Sermon appeared competent but didn't show much that reminded me of the standout runner I saw at Oklahoma and Ohio State. He made capable decisions within the scope of the play designs, earned what was blocked for him, and displayed just enough agility and acceleration to avoid penetration and unblocked pursuit on perimeter plays.

If I were evaluating Sermon solely on what I saw in this game, he looks like a competent backup who can execute when called upon. He lacked notable acceleration or high-end agility. There were a pair of runs where maybe a more wizened back could have bled more out of the situation.

Maybe that will develop for Sermon with more playing time than he's seen on Sundays, but that will require injuries or a new locale for him to earn those touches soon. If his acclimation period accelerates, it will have to happen against Atlanta next week with the possibility of Taylor and Moss sitting.

Otherwise, I'd regard David Montgomery, Jordan Howard, and Jamaal Williams as the mix of players Sermon is aspiring to match. Not that inspiring of a list for strong fantasy production in the future unless it earns Sermon a heavy role at the goal line.

I expect the Colts to let Moss walk when his contract expires next month. It means Sermon and Goodson will at least have a shot to remain contributors in 2024. We'll see if the Colts add another back in free agency or the draft. Expect at least 1-2 notable new faces to compete with this duo.

If I'm betting on a reserve back from the Colts to emerge as a bigger role player, I'd seriously consider Goodson.

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8. Don't Sleep on Tyler Goodson

Goodson intrigued me at Iowa. A scout told me that the Hawkeye's zone running game essentially forbids its backs to execute cutbacks. Most zone plays encourage backs to have three options:

  • Cram: Take the ball toward the intended play side crease as designed.
  • Bounce: Take the ball outside the intended play-side crease.
  • Cutback: Take the ball to the backside of the intended crease.

It wasn't difficult to see that Goodson had natural cutback ability in a system that wasn't going to get the most from him. What stood out most about Goodson was his receiving skills. He had impressive moments on tape as a route runner, ball-tracker, and pass-catcher against contact. I saw him having a shot to have a more productive career in the NFL, at least as a receiving-down back, than he had at Iowa.

A scatback is also how the Packers and Colts appeared to see Goodson. It's a shame Green Bay cut Goodson loose because he might have given the Packers a viable replacement for Aaron Jones in 2025 on the cheap. And if he didn't grow into that level of player, he still has the talent to contribute in an offense.

Their loss could be the Colts' gain. There are multiple plays that I could show you from the Steelers' game that show off his acceleration and ability to attack smaller creases, but it's easier to discuss what could separate Goodson from Sermon and make him the potential No.2 for the Colts next year.

This bounce to the edge is an impressive display of mobility that no Colts runner on the roster currently has.

My aspirational comparison for Goodson? Austin Ekeler. He's not there and may never reach those heights, but he has a complete game that can be mined for complementary value to Taylor. It makes Goodson a worthwhile addition for next week if Taylor and Moss are out as well as the offseason for dynasty rosters.

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9. Box Counts: A Quick Way to Improve Your Knowledge of Running Game Context

What tips can you give me to help me scout players?

It's a common question over the past 10 years. One of the most practical tips is for running backs and that's to learn about box counts.

The box is the area within five yards of the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. If the offense has more players in the box than the defense, they have an inherent advantage with the play. If the defense has more players in the box, they have the advantage.

On offense, you should count the running back as one of those players. If the quarterback is a viable runner and the play is designed to give the quarterback an option to keep the ball as a runner, count him as well.

That's the simple explanation. Let's add more nuance.

When you watch a running play, note the direction of the play and how it's blocked. Remember those details and then, rewind the play and note how many offensive players and defensive players are in the box to the side of the center where the play's design is intended. If there's a puller or late motion from a blocker to the side of the play design, count that as well.

It's best to learn the basics of run-play designs to get the most context from this exercise, but you'll still learn a lot without it.

Generally, when the box count of the offense versus the defense is even, it's still worth running the play. A +1 personnel advantage for the offense should generate a positive play, even one that moves the chains. A +2 personnel advantage or greater could increase the odds of a big play or breakaway gain. At the very least, it should generate a large hole to the second level of the defense if blocks aren't missed.

This exercise is the basis for my September analysis of DAndre Swift's performance against the Vikings and why I wasn't one of the minions lauding Swift as an elite runner.

Box counts help you see how much a runner is a product of his system versus how much he's a standalone talent who can make his blockers look better than they are.

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10. Fresh Fish

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Chicago Bears not named Justin Fields

As a Cleveland Browns fan, I'm still in shock that my team won a game thanks to a team's self-inflicted error that robbed them of apparent victory. That doesn't happen in Northeast Ohio.

Thanks again for reading, and good luck this week!

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Photos provided by Imagn Images
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