One of the best parts about dynasty fantasy football leagues is the year-long commitment to the team. The ongoing nature of dynasty teams creates a lot of advantages for dynasty GMs who use good strategy and roster construction. Free agency, trades, the NFL Draft, and the different news cycles lead to different strategies for different positions. This series will focus on different moves to make this month.
Beware of Rookie Tight Ends
Rookie tight ends are difficult to depend on early in their career for fantasy football production. The transition to the NFL can be difficult and slow. Having proper expectations can help you understand their value in dynasty fantasy football.
Dig Deeper: See our rookie tight end rankings here >>>
Since 2008, tight ends drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, who have played the first three years of their career (excluding Kyle Pitts, who has only played two), average 9.4 points per game with a median performance of 9.0 points per game.
Overall, the average first-round tight end finished with 3.5 receptions, 39.2 receiving yards, and 0.3 touchdowns per game. The best performer during the time span was Evan Engram, who averaged 11.8 points per game in the first three years of his career.
By way of reference, the average TE12 finish since 2008 has been 10.4 points per game. The 90th-percentile outcome for first-round tight ends has been 10.3 points per game. Engram’s 11.8 points per game are just above the average TE8 finish, which is 11.7 PPG.
With Engram as the benchmark, the comparison with this year’s only first-round tight end, Dalton Kincaid, is illuminating.
When asked if Dalton Kincaid matched the production of Evan Engram’s production in the first three years of his career, 56% said they would be disappointed.
This is certainly a sign the dynasty marketplace is overvaluing tight ends and is a good reminder to be skeptical of early career production.
Second-round tight ends are even worse. On average, on average, they score 5.9 points per game in the first three years of their career. The 90th percentile performance is 8.9 points per game. Outside of Rob Gronkowski (15.8), no second-round tight end has averaged 10 points per game in the first three years of his career. The second-best scorer during the span was Zach Ertz, with 9 PPG.
Action Plan in Premium Formats
Tight-end premiums boost the impact of tight ends relative to other positions, particularly in the flex.
Overall, in 2PPR scoring, first-round tight ends average 12.9 points per game, a 3.5 points-per-game boost by the format. The 90th percentile performance for first-round tight ends in 2PPR has been 14.6 points per game. Engram’s 16.3 points per game is the best first three years of his career since 2008, ahead of Brandon Pettigrew by almost 2 points per game.
In 2PPR scoring, second-round tight ends averaged 8 PPG, with a 90th percentile of 11.8 PPG.
A 2PPR scoring format for tight ends presents an interesting debate for players like Dalton Kincaid versus the four first-round wide receivers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers.
The answer to the debate is largely a question of what you are seeking to accomplish.
On average, first-round tight ends (12.9) score more points than first-round wide receivers (10.7) in the first three years of their career. Likewise, the median for first-round tight ends (12.4) is higher than for first-round wide receivers (11.4).
However, more ceiling outcomes see wide receivers surpassing tight ends. At the 75th percentile, first-round wide receivers (13.5) nearly match tight ends (13.9). When looking at the 90th percentile, wide receivers have a clear advantage (16) over tight ends (14.6).
In a 2PPR format, Kincaid belongs in the tier with the first-round wide receivers, and you should take him over any of those wide receivers you do not believe have an elite ceiling.