Take a look at other positions here: Quarterback | Wide Receiver | Running Back
The 2023 season will provide answers to some of the biggest questions in fantasy football. Five teams are defined by their tight end questions.
What is the passing rate in Baltimore?
Mark Andrews is an elite performer. On his career, Andrews has 2.18 yards per route run, a 99th percentile performance among tight ends with more than 200 career routes since 2008. He has been targeted on 24.9% of his routes, the 100th percentile performance among tight ends, with more than 200 receiving routes since 2008. The only question has been Baltimore's passing volume. In his career, Andrews has ranked 23rd, 25th, 19th, 1st, and 10th in route volume among tight ends. His season where he finished as TE1 was the season he finished first in route volume. His 80.1 receiving yards per game in 2021 ranks as the 9th-best tight end season in NFL history. Andrews should benefit from Baltimore's move from former offensive coordinator Greg Roman to Todd Monken. In four seasons calling plays in the NFL, Monken's average season was 1% over expectation, and his lowest passing expectation rate has been league average. Monken returned to the NFL after spending the last three seasons at Georgia. During each of the past two seasons, Georgia's tight end Brock Bowers led the team in receiving, so this could be an outstanding combination for Andrews. Andrews is on an exclusive list of active players capable of producing the best tight end season of all time if Baltimore's passing volume allows him the opportunity.
What is the passing volume in Atlanta?
After a 110-target rookie season in 2021, Kyle Pitts missed seven games in 2022 and was held to only 59 targets, 28 receptions, 356 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. A healthy Pitts should be in line for a major rebound and could benefit if Atlanta throws more frequently in 2023. The scale and scope of that rebound will depend on Atlanta's passing volume. The team's passing rate in 2022 was 13% under expectation based on the team's game situation with Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder under center. In his tenure as an offensive play caller, Arthur Smith has consistently been run-heavy, but 2023 is arguably his best set of offensive skill players in his career as a play caller. The team still has a major question at quarterback, with Desmond Ridder struggling as a rookie. The team's passing rate was 13% under expectation based on the team's game situation, with Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder under center in 2022. If Desmond Ridder develops, that number could trend towards the normal 4% to 11% under the passing rate expectation range of Arthur Smith's prior offenses. The team had only 28.9 dropbacks per game, which ranked last in the league, and had 29.3 seconds per play, which ranked 27th. If his team regresses toward the league median in pace and/or passing rate, Pitts could be a major volume rebound.
Is Darren Waller healthy?
The Raiders traded Darren Waller to the Giants earlier this offseason, giving Waller a clean slate with a new offense. The major question is whether Waller is healthy. Waller has played in 20 of 34 games the past two seasons, and outside of his two 1100-yard back-to-back seasons in 2019 and 2020, he has never been above 665 receiving yards in a season. If Waller is healthy and gels with Daniel Jones, he could lead the team in receiving yards.
How does Travis Kelce age?
Travis Kelce is the best tight end in NFL History. In the last six years, there have been seven seasons 1000 yard receiving seasons by a player 30 years of age or older. Kelce accounts for four of those seven seasons. Since 2016, Kelce has been the TE1 in season-long points in all but the 2021 season when Mark Andrews finished as TE1. After a downtick in efficiency in 2021, Kelce roared back to claim his throne of TE1 in 2022 and is the leading pass catcher in a Patrick Mahomes II-led offense. Tight ends can age gracefully, as demonstrated by the likes of Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten, who produced well into their mid-30s, but will Kelce go that route? He has media and Hollywood opportunities, so his career trajectory feels closer to year to year at this point, despite his high-level play. How Kelce ages, his longevity, and the next generation of the Chiefs offense will be important trends to monitor.
Is George Kittle healthy?
George Kittle has struggled to stay healthy during his career. After back-to-back seasons with at least 80 catches and 1000 yards in 2018 and 2019, Kittle has missed 13 games and had a season-high of 71 receptions. Kittle scored a touchdown per game during Brock Purdy's starts and could be a regression candidate, but if he is healthy, has the type of upside to finish as TE1. Kittle is dealing with an abductor strain, so his availability and fitness to play will be important to monitor leading up to Week 1.