A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
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When setting expectations, consider the following four tight end candidates due for regression in 2023.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Hunter Henry finished fifth in the league in yards per target (8.9) in 2022, despite a complete debacle of an offensive coaching staff featuring Matt Patricia as offensive coordinator. The problem with Henry's 2022 season was he was only targeted 59 times and plummeted in red zone opportunities, falling from 9 touchdowns to only 2. Henry's 2022 season was the lowest target per game since his rookie season, despite his high production per target. Additionally, 17.5% of his targets came in the red zone in 2022, while only 7.3% of his receptions came in the red zone. Henry should be a big beneficiary of the change to offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien who had success in calling plays in the Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez era of the New England offense.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
The entire Pittsburgh offense struggled in 2022, and a large part of the struggles can be attributed to underperformance in the red zone. Pat Freiermuth was no different. 21.9% of his targets came in the red zone, a top 15 number among 37 qualifiers. But only 12.7% of his receptions were in the red zone, and he only managed two touchdowns. In 2021, 27.3% of his targets were in the red zone, and red zone receptions accounted for 25% of his receptions en route to seven receiving touchdowns. The entire Pittsburgh offense struggled to score in 2022, and Freiermuth is a big candidate to benefit if Kenny Pickett can take a step forward in his second season.
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
Tyler Conklin won the starting job over fellow free agent acquisition C.J. Uzomah in 2022 but was a letdown in a disappointing Jets offense. Conklin flew under the radar with 87 targets in 2022, the eighth-most in the league among tight ends in 2022. Conklin was only targeted in the red zone on 13.3% of his targets in 2022, after 20.5% of his targets came in the red zone in his final season in Minnesota in 2021. The change in quarterbacks from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers should also have a major impact. Rodgers has a history of producing elite tight end production, including fueling Robert Tonyan Jr's 11 touchdowns on 17 red zone target season in 2020. Conklin could be a low-end TE1 in 2023 in an offense with questions at pass catcher outside of Garrett Wilson.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts had a difficult 2022 season. After a 110-target rookie season in 2021, Pitts missed seven games in 2022 and was held to only 59 targets, 28 receptions, 356 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. A healthy Pitts should be in line for a major rebound and could benefit if Atlanta throws more frequently in 2023. The team's passing rate in 2022 was 13% under expectation based on the team's game situation with Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder under center. When head coach Arthur Smith was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee when he ranged from 4% under expectation to 11% under expectation. The team had only 28.9 dropbacks per game, which ranked last in the league, and had 29.3 seconds per play, which ranked 27th. If his team regresses toward the league median in pace and/or passing rate, Pitts could be a major volume rebound. Also, Pitts has underproduced as a touchdown scorer. In two seasons, he has only three receiving touchdowns, and his production in 2021 was the product of some poor variance. He had 23 targets in the red zone and only one touchdown. Of the 13 tight ends with 20 targets in the red zone, 11 had at least four receiving touchdowns. Pitts led the league among tight ends with aDOT in 13.7 and is a productive player who should rebound in 2023.