A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
Flip Side: See 3 TEs Who Could Decline here >>>
When setting expectations, consider the following four tight end candidates due for regression in 2023.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Hunter Henry finished fifth in the league in yards per target (8.9) in 2022, despite a complete debacle of an offensive coaching staff featuring Matt Patricia as offensive coordinator. The problem with Henry's 2022 season was he was only targeted 59 times and plummeted in red zone opportunities, falling from 9 touchdowns to only 2. Henry's 2022 season was the lowest target per game since his rookie season, despite his high production per target. Additionally, 17.5% of his targets came in the red zone in 2022, while only 7.3% of his receptions came in the red zone. Henry should be a big beneficiary of the change to offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien who had success in calling plays in the Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez era of the New England offense.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
The entire Pittsburgh offense struggled in 2022, and a large part of the struggles can be attributed to underperformance in the red zone. Pat Freiermuth was no different. 21.9% of his targets came in the red zone, a top 15 number among 37 qualifiers. But only 12.7% of his receptions were in the red zone, and he only managed two touchdowns. In 2021, 27.3% of his targets were in the red zone, and red zone receptions accounted for 25% of his receptions en route to seven receiving touchdowns. The entire Pittsburgh offense struggled to score in 2022, and Freiermuth is a big candidate to benefit if Kenny Pickett can take a step forward in his second season.